Temporal trend of diarrhea morbidity rate with climate change: Egypt as a case study.

Many studies have detected a relationship between diarrhea morbidity rates with the changes in precipitation, temperature, floods, droughts, water shortage, etc. But, most of the authors were cautious in their studies, because of the lack of empirical climate-health data and there were large uncertainties in the future projections. The study aimed to refine the link between the morbidity rates of diarrhea in some Egyptian governorates representative of the three Egyptian geographical divisions with the meteorological changes that occurred in the 2006-2016 period for which the medical data are available, as a case study. Medical raw data was collected from the Information Centre Department of the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population. The meteorological data of temperature and precipitation extremes were defined as data outside the 10th-90th percentile range of values of the period of study, and their analysis was done using a methodology similar to the one recommended by the WMO and integrated in the CLIMDEX software. Relationships between the morbidity rates of diarrhea in seven Egyptian governorates and the meteorological changes that occurred in the period 2006 to 2016 were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis to identify the most effective meteorological factor that affects the trend of morbidity rate of diarrhea in each governorate. Statistical analysis revealed that some meteorological parameters can be used as predictors for morbidity rates of diarrhea in Cairo, Alexandria, and Gharbia, but not in Aswan, Behaira, and Dakahlia where the temporal evolution cannot be related with meteorology. In Red Sea, there was no temporal trend and no significant relationships between the diarrhea morbidity rate and meteorological parameters. The predictor meteorological parameters for morbidity rates of diarrhea were found to be depending on the geographic locations and infrastructures in these governorates. It was concluded that the meteorological data that can be used as predictors for the morbidity rate of diarrhea is depending on the geographical location and infrastructures of the target location. The socioeconomic levels as well as the infrastructures in the governorate must be considered confounders in future studies.

Textile ageing due to atmospheric gases and particles in indoor cultural heritage.

Textile fibre degradation can be due to many factors. The most common cause is light exposure, but upon the lifespan of a textile, many other environmental factors are to be taken into account. This study focuses on the role of atmospheric compounds-both particulate and gaseous species-on natural textiles ageing, more specifically cotton, silk and wool. To achieve this, reference samples of textiles were exposed to contrasted environments (marine, urban and semi-rural museums and historical buildings) for natural ageing. These conditions were also reproduced in an experimental chamber dedicated to the study of the impact of airborne pollutants on heritage materials. Experimental ageing allowed to highlight degradation mechanisms for each fibre: SO2 and HCOOH cause the cleavage of cotton's glyosidic links and silk's peptide bonds, while NO2 promotes the oxidation of the fibres. The most harmful pollutant towards cotton is NO2 since it causes both its oxidation and hydrolysis. The case of wool is more complicated: HCOOH provokes peptide link cleavage (similarly to silk) but this fibre is less sensitive to SO2 attacks than silk and even seems to be protected against future alterations after having been firstly exposed to this pollutant. In any case, this experimental study evidences that damages caused by gaseous pollutants are fostered by the presence of particles, regardless of the chemical composition of the particle coating.

Validation of RegCM-CHEM4 model by comparison with surface measurements in the Greater Cairo (Egypt) megacity.

The densely populated Greater Cairo (GC) region suffers from severe air quality issues caused by high levels of anthropogenic activities, such as motorized traffic, industries, and agricultural biomass burning events, along with natural sources of particulate matter, such as wind erosion of arid surfaces. Surface-measured concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3) and its precursor's gases (nitrogen dioxide, NO2; carbon monoxide, CO) were obtained for the GC region. The PM10 concentrations were found to exceed remarkably the Egyptian guidelines (150 µg/m3). These high levels of PM10 were recorded throughout 68% of the period of measurement in some industrial areas (El-Kolaly). The measured data of pollutants were used for both the evaluation of environmental pollution levels and the validation of the online-integrated regional climate chemistry model "RegCM-CHEM4." Calculation of the bias between the model results and the measured data was used to evaluate the model performance in order to assess its ability in reproducing the chemical species over the area. The model was found to reproduce the seasonal cycle of the pollutants successfully, but with a large underestimation of the PM10 values. Validation of the RegCM-CHEM4 indicated that the emission inventories of mobile sources and anthropogenic activities need to be improved especially with respect to local and regional activities in order to enhance air quality simulations over the GC region.

Tackling the mortality from long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution in megacities: Lessons from the Greater Cairo case study.

OBJECTIVE: The poor outdoor air quality in megacities of the developing world and its impact on health is a matter of concern for both the local populations and the decision-makers. The objective of this work is to quantify the mortality attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and O3 in Greater Cairo (Egypt). METHODS: We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the three pollutants concentrations measured at 18 stations of the area. Then, we apply the method recommended by the WHO to estimate the excess mortality. In this assessment, three different shapes (log-linear, linear, and log-log) of the concentration-response functions (CRF) are used. RESULTS: With PM2.5 concentrations varying from 50 to more than 100µg/m3 in the different sectors of the megacity, the spatial variability of this pollutant is found to be one important cause of uncertainty on the excess mortality associated with it. Also important is the choice of the CRF. With the average (75µg/m3) PM2.5 concentration and the most favorable log-log shape of the CRF, 11% (CI, 9-14%) of the non-accidental mortality in the population older than 30 years can still be attributed to PM2.5, which corresponds to 12520 (CI, 10240-15930) yearly premature deaths. Should the Egyptian legal 70µg/m3 PM10 limit (corresponding to approximately 37.5µg/m3 for PM2.5) be met, this number would be reduced to 7970, meaning that 4550 premature deaths could be avoided each year. Except around some industrial or traffic hot spots, NO2 concentration is found to be below the 40µg/m3 air quality guideline of the WHO. However, the average concentration (34µg/m3) of this gas exceeds the stricter 10µg/m3 recommendation of the HRAPIE project and it is thus estimated that from 7850 to 10470 yearly deaths can be attributed to NO2. Finally, with the ozone concentration measured at one station only, it is found that, depending on the choice of the CRF, between 2.4% and 8.8% of the mortality due to respiratory diseases can be attributed to this gas. CONCLUSION: In Greater Cairo, PM2.5 and NO2 constitute major health risks. The best estimate is that in the population older than 30 years, 11% and 8% of the non-accidental mortality can be attributed to these two pollutants, respectively.