Predictive Models for Forecasting Public Health Scenarios: Practical Experiences Applied during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Background: Forecasting the behavior of epidemic outbreaks is vital in public health. This makes it possible to anticipate the planning and organization of the health system, as well as possible restrictive or preventive measures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, this need for prediction has been crucial. This paper attempts to characterize the alternative models that were applied in the first wave of this pandemic context, trying to shed light that could help to understand them for future practical applications. Methods: A systematic literature search was performed in standardized bibliographic repertoires, using keywords and Boolean operators to refine the findings, and selecting articles according to the main PRISMA 2020 statement recommendations. Results: After identifying models used throughout the first wave of this pandemic (between March and June 2020), we begin by examining standard data-driven epidemiological models, including studies applying models such as SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered), SQUIDER, SEIR, time-dependent SIR, and other alternatives. For data-driven methods, we identify experiences using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), evolutionary genetic programming machine learning, short-term memory (LSTM), and global epidemic and mobility models. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to intensive and evolving use of alternative infectious disease prediction models. At this point it is not easy to decide which prediction method is the best in a generic way. Moreover, although models such as the LSTM emerge as remarkably versatile and useful, the practical applicability of the alternatives depends on the specific context of the underlying variable and on the information of the target to be prioritized. In addition, the robustness of the assessment is conditioned by heterogeneity in the quality of information sources and differences in the characteristics of disease control interventions. Further comprehensive comparison of the performance of models in comparable situations, assessing their predictive validity, is needed. This will help determine the most reliable and practical methods for application in future outbreaks and eventual pandemics.

The Influence of Infection and Colonization on Outcomes in Inpatients With COVID-19: Are We Forgetting Something?

The COVID-19 epidemic has been a great challenge to health systems and especially hospitals. A prospective observational epidemiological study was planned as of February 26, 2020 in a tertiary hospital in the Valencia region. The total number of patients followed up with complete information during the first year was 2,448. Among other variables, the comorbidities of the patients were collected (and grouped in the Charson index), the stay in the intensive care unit (ICU), the co-infections, and the colonizations. Data on nosocomial infections due to said virus were also collected. The median days from the onset of symptoms to diagnosis were 4 + 4.6, while an additional 4.4 days had to pass for the patients to be admitted to the ICU. The factors associated with a higher risk of death were those with coinfection, especially with Candida auris [odds ratio (OR): 4.6], a situation that also occurred in the ICU (OR: 3.18). Charlson Index comorbidity and C. auris colonization were also very important both in general hospitalization and in the ICU.

Un indicador de eficiencia de servicios sanitarios: la mortalidad evitable y sus relaciones socioeconómicas / No disponible

El concepto de mortalidad evitable aunque surgió hace casi 50 años sigue sin estar claro. Sin embargo, la mayoría de autores coinciden en su uso como indicador de eficiencia de los servicios sanitarios. En este estudio se relaciona con variables socioeconómicas en un modelo de panel. En el estudio realizado en diferentes países europeos se observa que la variación en el gasto sanitario es inversa a la tasa de mortalidad evitable, y que la variación en los ingresos, el nivel de estudios y los hábitos de vida relacionados con el ámbito urbanos son inversamente proporcionales a la tasa de mortalidad evitable

The concept of avoidable mortality even though it emerged almost 50 years ago remains unclear. However, most authors agree on its use as an indicator of efficiency of health services. In this study it is related to socioeconomic variables in a panel model. The study carried out in different European countries shows that the variation in health expenditure is inversely related to the avoidable mortality rate, and that the variation in income, level of education and living habits related to the urban environment are inversely Proportional to the avoidable mortality rate

Economía de la salud: la evaluación económica en las intervenciones en salud pública / No disponible

No disponible

The effects of the financial crisis on primary prevention of cancer.

The present financial crisis will affect primary cancer prevention through several avenues: personal lifestyle choices, exposure to environmental risk factors, decisions made in the private sector and public policy on cancer prevention. Whilst it is clearly problematic to reach solid conclusions on a direct connection between economic crises and cancer mortality, we can identify trends that provide guidance for further action. For some lifestyle choices such as smoking or diet, we argue that public policy may channel existing tendencies during times of crisis for clear added value. In other areas, including research and health system investments, we will make the case that the resources not used now for cancer prevention efforts will lead to increased costs (both financial and human) down the road. Policy makers face a clear choice: they can follow a cost contention strategy, which may reduce expenditure in the short-term only to increase it in the long-term, or they can use the financial crisis as an opportunity to make difficult choices in terms of health service rationalisation, whilst at the same time strengthening evidence-based prevention policies. In short, we argue that despite the scarcity of funds and the governmental priorities on economic recovery, cancer prevention is more relevant now than ever.

Social economic costs and health-related quality of life in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Spain.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a process that leads to the functional disability of the individual in a relatively short period of time, with a very important limitation of autonomy and affecting the quality of life. We wished to determine the economic burden (direct and indirect costs), as well as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with ALS in Spain. A cross-sectional study was carried out on 63 patients with ALS during 2004. A retrospective assessment of the use of resources was obtained through questionnaires completed by the patients and/or the patients' caregivers. The approach used was a cost-of-illness study based on a societal perspective. We assessed the HRQoL with the EQ-5D. Mean annual cost per patient with ALS was euro36,194. The most important categories of costs were informal care, early retirement, medications, and orthopaedic devices. The mean EQ-5D index score was 0.18 and the mean EQ-5D VAS score was 29. Considerations of the costs related to caregiving to cope with the patients' disabilities, as well as the high indirect costs resulting from early retirement in patients with ALS, should become a priority for health authorities in Spain. The patients' HRQoL was very low and substantially influenced by the degree of severity of ALS.

[Characteristics of avoidable hospitalization in Spain]. / Características de la hospitalización evitable en España.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Hospitalizations that could have been prevented with a timely and effective ambulatory care are known as avoidable hospitalizations (AH). The measure of AH is an indicator of the quality of primary health care centers. The objective of this study was to determine the factors that influence the level of AH at the Spanish public hospitals. MATERIAL AND METHOD: We identified the characteristics of hospitalised patient as AH. We studied the total hospitalizations in public hospitals of Spain in 2000 related to AH. RESULTS: AH admissions were the 15.8% of total in Spanish hospitals and the 16.6% of hospital stays. Patients' mean age was high, 54 years, males (age-adjusted OR = 1.54) with a large length of stay and presurgery stay, higher comorbidity (0.63 [0.8]), public financing, and admission was basically emergency-caused and in high complexity hospitals. There is a direct relationship between frequency of AH and hospital complexity. CONCLUSIONS: The control of AH is very important because its repercussion on the total hospitalary case-mix. We observe an inducing effect of the hospital offer because the hospital capacity increase the number of AH admissions.