Estimation of model accuracy in CASP15 using the ModFOLDdock server.

In CASP15, there was a greater emphasis on multimeric modeling than in previous experiments, with assembly structures nearly doubling in number (41 up from 22) since the previous round. CASP15 also included a new estimation of model accuracy (EMA) category in recognition of the importance of objective quality assessment (QA) for quaternary structure models. ModFOLDdock is a multimeric model QA server developed by the McGuffin group at the University of Reading, which brings together a range of single-model, clustering, and deep learning methods to form a consensus of approaches. For CASP15, three variants of ModFOLDdock were developed to optimize for the different facets of the quality estimation problem. The standard ModFOLDdock variant produced predicted scores optimized for positive linear correlations with the observed scores. The ModFOLDdockR variant produced predicted scores optimized for ranking, that is, the top-ranked models have the highest accuracy. In addition, the ModFOLDdockS variant used a quasi-single model approach to score each model on an individual basis. The scores from all three variants achieved strongly positive Pearson correlation coefficients with the CASP observed scores (oligo-lDDT) in excess of 0.70, which were maintained across both homomeric and heteromeric model populations. In addition, at least one of the ModFOLDdock variants was consistently ranked in the top two methods across all three EMA categories. Specifically, for overall global fold prediction accuracy, ModFOLDdock placed second and ModFOLDdockR placed third; for overall interface quality prediction accuracy, ModFOLDdockR, ModFOLDdock, and ModFOLDdockS were placed above all other predictor methods, and ModFOLDdockR and ModFOLDdockS were placed second and third respectively for individual residue confidence scores. The ModFOLDdock server is available at: https://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLDdock/. ModFOLDdock is also available as part of the MultiFOLD docker package: https://hub.docker.com/r/mcguffin/multifold.

Improvement of protein tertiary and quaternary structure predictions using the ReFOLD refinement method and the AlphaFold2 recycling process.

Motivation: The accuracy gap between predicted and experimental structures has been significantly reduced following the development of AlphaFold2 (AF2). However, for many targets, AF2 models still have room for improvement. In previous CASP experiments, highly computationally intensive MD simulation-based methods have been widely used to improve the accuracy of single 3D models. Here, our ReFOLD pipeline was adapted to refine AF2 predictions while maintaining high model accuracy at a modest computational cost. Furthermore, the AF2 recycling process was utilized to improve 3D models by using them as custom template inputs for tertiary and quaternary structure predictions. Results: According to the Molprobity score, 94% of the generated 3D models by ReFOLD were improved. AF2 recycling showed an improvement rate of 87.5% (using MSAs) and 81.25% (using single sequences) for monomeric AF2 models and 100% (MSA) and 97.8% (single sequence) for monomeric non-AF2 models, as measured by the average change in lDDT. By the same measure, the recycling of multimeric models showed an improvement rate of as much as 80% for AF2-Multimer (AF2M) models and 94% for non-AF2M models. Availability and implementation: Refinement using AlphaFold2-Multimer recycling is available as part of the MultiFOLD docker package (https://hub.docker.com/r/mcguffin/multifold). The ReFOLD server is available at https://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ReFOLD/ and the modified scripts can be downloaded from https://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/downloads/. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics Advances online.

Prediction of protein structures, functions and interactions using the IntFOLD7, MultiFOLD and ModFOLDdock servers.

The IntFOLD server based at the University of Reading has been a leading method over the past decade in providing free access to accurate prediction of protein structures and functions. In a post-AlphaFold2 world, accurate models of tertiary structures are widely available for even more protein targets, so there has been a refocus in the prediction community towards the accurate modelling of protein-ligand interactions as well as modelling quaternary structure assemblies. In this paper, we describe the latest improvements to IntFOLD, which maintains its competitive structure prediction performance by including the latest deep learning methods while also integrating accurate model quality estimates and 3D models of protein-ligand interactions. Furthermore, we also introduce our two new server methods: MultiFOLD for accurately modelling both tertiary and quaternary structures, with performance which has been independently verified to outperform the standard AlphaFold2 methods, and ModFOLDdock, which provides world-leading quality estimates for quaternary structure models. The IntFOLD7, MultiFOLD and ModFOLDdock servers are available at: https://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/.

ModFOLD8: accurate global and local quality estimates for 3D protein models.

Methods for estimating the quality of 3D models of proteins are vital tools for driving the acceptance and utility of predicted tertiary structures by the wider bioscience community. Here we describe the significant major updates to ModFOLD, which has maintained its position as a leading server for the prediction of global and local quality of 3D protein models, over the past decade (>20 000 unique external users). ModFOLD8 is the latest version of the server, which combines the strengths of multiple pure-single and quasi-single model methods. Improvements have been made to the web server interface and there has been successive increases in prediction accuracy, which were achieved through integration of newly developed scoring methods and advanced deep learning-based residue contact predictions. Each version of the ModFOLD server has been independently blind tested in the biennial CASP experiments, as well as being continuously evaluated via the CAMEO project. In CASP13 and CASP14, the ModFOLD7 and ModFOLD8 variants ranked among the top 10 quality estimation methods according to almost every official analysis. Prior to CASP14, ModFOLD8 was also applied for the evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 protein models as part of CASP Commons 2020 initiative. The ModFOLD8 server is freely available at: https://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLD/.