Deep Learning-Based Survival Analysis for Receiving a Steatotic Donor Liver Versus Waiting for a Standard Liver.

BACKGROUND: An emerging strategy to expand the donor pool is the use of a steatotic donor liver (SDLs; ≥ 30% macrosteatosis on biopsy). With the obesity epidemic and prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, SDLs have been reported in 59% of all deceased donors. Many potential candidates need to decide whether to accept an SDL offer or remain on the waitlist for a nonsteatotic donor liver (non-SDL). The objective of this study was to compare the survival of accepting an SDL vs using a non-SDL after waiting various times. METHODS: Using data from the United States' organ procurement and transplantation network, deep survival learning predictive models were built to compare post-decision survival after accepting an SDL vs waiting for a non-SDL. The comparison subjects contain simulated 20,000 different scenarios of a candidate either accepting an SDL immediately or receiving a non-SDL after waiting various times. The research variables were selected using the LASSO-Cox and Random Survival Forest (RSF) models. The Cox proportional hazards and RSF models were also comparatively included for survival prediction. In addition, personalized survival curves for randomly selected candidates were generated. RESULT: Deep survival learning outperformed Cox proportional hazards and RSF in predicting the survival of liver transplants. Among the simulations, 25% to 30% of scenarios demonstrated a higher 3-year survival post-decision for candidates accepting an SDL than waiting and receiving a non-SDL. The difference was only 1.43% in 3-year survival post-decision between accepting an SDL and waiting 260 days (mean waitlist time) for a non-SDL. As the number of days on the waitlist increases, the difference in survival between accepting SDLs and waiting for non-SDLs decreases. CONCLUSIONS: Appropriately used SDLs could expand the donor pool and relieve the candidates' unmet need for donor livers, which presents long-term survival benefits for recipients.

Association of Preventive Care Attitudes and Beliefs with Colorectal Cancer Screening History among African American Patients of Community Health Centers.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer and third leading cause of cancer-related death among African Americans in the United States. However, when detected early, CRC is treatable and survival rates are high. CRC health disparities for African Americans compared with other groups may be due in part to lower screening adherence and later stage diagnosis. The objective of this research phase was to test predictors of ever having received CRC screening (i.e., self-report of lifetime receipt of CRC screening) using survey measures in the domains of healthcare communication, trust in doctors, CRC perceived susceptibility, CRC worry, negative cancer beliefs, CRC screening self-efficacy, and cultural constructs for CRC screening in a sample of African American community health center patients. The study recruited 115 African American patients between the ages of 45 to 64 years old from community health centers in north Florida to complete the baseline survey. Our results show significant differences in CRC screening history by age, marital status, level of mistrust of healthcare providers, and level of empowerment toward cancer screening. To increase CRC screening in this population, the study findings suggest development of intervention programs that focus on priority populations of younger, unmarried African Americans, especially given the current trend of early onset CRC. Moreover, survival rates are lower for unmarried and younger African Americans relative to older and married individuals. Such interventions should also aim to increase trust in healthcare providers and increase empowerment for CRC screening decision making to increase screening participation.

Engaging the Community on Colorectal Cancer Screening Education: Focus Group Discussions Among African Americans.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most diagnosed cancer in the USA, and African Americans experience disproportionate CRC diagnosis and mortality. Early detection could reduce CRC incidence and mortality, and reduce CRC health disparities, which may be due in part to lower screening adherence and later stage diagnosis among African Americans compared to whites. Culturally tailored interventions to increase access to and uptake of CRC stool-based tests are one effective strategy to increase benefits of screening among African Americans. The objectives of this study were to obtain feedback from African Americans on CRC educational materials being developed for a subsequent behavioral clinical trial and explore participants' knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs about CRC and CRC screening. Seven focus groups were conducted between February and November 2020. Participants were African Americans recruited through community contacts. Four focus groups were held in-person and three were conducted virtually due to Covid-19 restrictions. Participants ranked CRC educational text messages and provided feedback on a culturally tailored educational brochure. A focus group guide with scripted probes was used to elicit discussion and transcripts were analyzed using traditional content analysis. Forty-two African Americans participated. Four themes were identified from focus group discussions: (1) knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs on CRC and CRC screening; (2) reliable sources of cancer education information; (3) cultural factors affecting perspectives on health; and (4) community insights into cancer education. Participant input on the brochure was incorporated in content creation. Engaging African American community members to qualitatively examine cancer prevention has value in improving implementation strategy and planning for behavioral clinical trials.

Comparative effectiveness of radiotherapy for early-stage hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in elderly women using real-world data.

BACKGROUND: Radiotherapy is the recommended treatment after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for early-stage breast cancer (BC). However, there is no clear evidence whether radiotherapy after BCS improves the survival of elderly women diagnosed with early-stage hormone receptor-positive (HR+) BC. The aim of this study was to investigate the survival benefit associated with radiotherapy plus hormonal therapy vs hormonal therapy alone after BCS for early-stage HR+ BC patients. METHODS: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results linked with Medicare data, we identified elderly (65 years and older) women diagnosed with early-stage HR+ BC (2006-2011) who received hormonal therapy with or without radiotherapy after BCS. A log-rank test, Cox proportional hazards models, and propensity score matching were used to estimate the overall survival (OS) benefit associated with radiotherapy after BCS. RESULTS: Of the 5688 patients, there were 303 deaths from any cause. One hundred and eighty-five (61%) of these deaths occurred in the hormonal therapy group, and 118 (39%) deaths occurred in the radiotherapy plus hormonal therapy group. The mean survival time in the radiotherapy plus hormonal therapy group was 5.32 ± 1.86 years compared with 4.92 ± 1.86 years in the hormonal therapy group. Based on the adjusted and propensity score matching analysis, patients in the adjuvant radiotherapy group had a lower risk of death compared with those who did not receive radiotherapy. Radiotherapy plus hormonal therapy decreased the risk of death by 32%. The effect estimates were similar in the adjusted and matched cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Radiotherapy plus hormonal therapy resulted in a significant improvement in the OS of elderly women diagnosed with HR+ BC.

Assessing the Level of Patient-Specific Treatment Recommendations in Clinical Practice Guidelines for Hemodialysis Vascular Access in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Hemodialysis is a procedure that requires efficient removal and return of blood to a patient's body. Despite being a life-sustaining process, hemodialysis is associated with morbidity, mortality, and high societal costs. A significant part of the financial costs to patients and society at large can be attributed to vascular access dysfunction. The cornerstone to efficient hemodialysis is a well-functioning vascular access that simultaneously allows efficient blood flow for dialysis and easy cannulation. It is hypothesized that the poor health outcomes associated with vascular access dysfunction can be improved by paying closer attention to patient-specific factors in clinical guidelines for hemodialysis vascular access. This may require a shift to a more patient-centered approach to vascular access management. OBJECTIVE: To assess the presence of patient-specific treatment recommendations in the current clinical practice guidelines for hemodialysis vascular access. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search of PubMed and professional nephrology organization websites for full-text clinical practice guidelines with treatment recommendations regarding hemodialysis vascular access. We developed a coding sheet to document the number of patient-specific treatment recommendations and other quality attributes found in the extracted clinical practice guidelines. RESULTS: Our search resulted in the extraction of 5 clinical practice guidelines for final review. Only 1 of the 5 extracted guidelines was found to contain patient-specific treatment recommendations, but the treatment recommendations were limited to juvenile patients. Of the 5 clinical practice guidelines, 4 were published within the past decade (ie, after 2006). CONCLUSION: Our findings show that current clinical practice guidelines for hemodialysis vascular access lack patient-specific recommendations. Future clinical guidelines must consider patient-specific treatment recommendations with the goal of improving hemodialysis vascular access outcomes for patients, a goal that is supported in the recommendations of the National Kidney Foundation.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of 1st through 3rd line sequential targeted therapy in HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer in the United States.

PURPOSE: Based on available phase III trial data, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of different treatment strategies that can be used in patients with newly diagnosed HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer (mBC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We constructed a Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of four different HER2 targeted treatment sequences in patients with HER2-positive mBC treated in the U.S. The model followed patients weekly over their remaining life expectancies. Health states considered were progression-free survival (PFS) 1st to 3rd lines, and death. Transitional probabilities were based on published phase III trials. Cost data (2015 US dollars) were captured from the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) drug payment table and physician fee schedule. Health utility data were extracted from published studies. The outcomes considered were PFS, OS, costs, QALYs, the incremental cost per QALY gained ratio, and the net monetary benefit. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses assessed the uncertainty around key model parameters and their joint impact on the base-case results. RESULTS: The combination of trastuzumab, pertuzumab, and docetaxel (THP) as first-line therapy, trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) as second-line therapy, and lapatinib/capecitabine third-line resulted in 1.81 QALYs, at a cost of $335,231.35. The combination of trastuzumab/docetaxel as first line without subsequent T-DM1 or pertuzumab yielded 1.41 QALYs, at a cost of $175,240.69. The least clinically effective sequence (1.27 QALYs), but most cost-effective at a total cost of $149,250.19, was trastuzumab/docetaxel as first-line therapy, T-DM1 as second-line therapy, and trastuzumab/lapatinib as third-line therapy. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that THP as first-line therapy, followed by T-DM1 as second-line therapy, would require at least a 50 % reduction in the total drug acquisition cost for it to be considered a cost-effective strategy.

Parameterization of a disease progression simulation model for sequentially treated metastatic human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive breast cancer patients.

UNLABELLED: Background The objective of this study is twofold: 1) to propose a simulation model for HER2+ metastatic breast cancer (mBC) which could further be used to assess the overall cost-effectiveness of the treatment sequences that would maximize survival of patients, and 2) to estimate transitional probabilities between treatment lines required to parameterize the simulation model, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). Methods Individual patient data (IPD) were reconstructed for treatment lines composing four treatment sequences. Parametric models were tested to select the model that best fits the IPD. The transitional probability equations, used for disease progression modeling, were obtained by substituting the parameters of the general equation for transitional probabilities by the parameters estimated from fitted distributions. Results The log-logistic model best fitted the reconstructed data for progression-free and overall survival curves for each line of treatment. The shapes and scales of the log-logistic models were used to develop the transitional probability equations for the HER2+ mBC simulation model. KEY LIMITATIONS: The estimation of the transitional probabilities depends heavily on the accuracy of the IPD reconstruction. Nonetheless, analytical and graphical tests can be performed to check the face validity of the reconstructed data. Additionally, sensitivity analyses can be conducted to test the impact of uncertainty surrounding the estimated parameters defining equations for transitional probabilities. Conclusion The results of this study can be used as input in model-based economic evaluations of sequential therapy for HER2+ mBC.