A systems approach evaluating the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern mutations on CD8+ T cell responses

T cell recognition of SARS-CoV-2 antigens after vaccination and/or natural infection has played a central role in resolving SARS-CoV-2 infections and generating adaptive immune memory. However, the clinical impact of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses is variable and the mechanisms underlying T cell interaction with target antigens are not fully understood. This is especially true given the virus rapid evolution, which leads to new variants with immune escape capacity. In this study, we used the Omicron variant as a model organism and took a systems approach to evaluate the impact of mutations on CD8+ T cell immunogenicity. We computed an immunogenicity potential score for each SARS-CoV-2 peptide antigen from the ancestral strain and Omicron, capturing both antigen presentation and T cell recognition probabilities. By comparing ancestral vs. Omicron immunogenicity scores, we reveal a divergent and heterogeneous landscape of impact for CD8+ T cell recognition of mutated targets in Omicron variants. While T cell recognition of Omicron peptides is broadly preserved, we observed mutated peptides with deteriorated immunogenicity that may assist breakthrough infection in some individuals. We then combined our scoring scheme with an in-silico mutagenesis, to characterise the position- and residue-specific theoretical mutational impact on immunogenicity. While we predict many escape trajectories from the theoretical landscape of substitutions, our study suggests that Omicron mutations in T cell epitopes did not develop under cell-mediated pressure. Our study provides a generalisable platform for fostering a deeper understanding of existing and novel variant impact on antigen-specific vaccine- and/or infection-induced T cell immunity.

Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Pregnancy in Ontario: A Matched Cohort Analysis

BackgroundPregnancy represents a physiological state associated with increased vulnerability to severe outcomes from infectious diseases, both for the pregnant person and developing infant. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic may have important health consequences for pregnant individuals, who may also be more reluctant than non-pregnant people to accept vaccination. We sought to estimate the degree to which increased severity of SARS-CoV-2 outcomes can be attributed to pregnancy. MethodsOur study made use of a population-based SARS-CoV-2 case file from Ontario, Canada. Due to both varying propensity to receive vaccination, and changes in dominant circulating viral strains over time, a time-matched cohort study was performed to evaluate the relative risk of severe illness in pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2 compared to other SARS-CoV-2 infected women of childbearing age (10 to 49 years old). Risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 outcomes (hospitalization or intensive care unit (ICU) admission) was evaluated in pregnant women and time-matched non-pregnant controls using multivariable conditional logistic regression. ResultsCompared to the rest of the population, non-pregnant women of childbearing age had an elevated risk of infection (standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) 1.28), while risk of infection was reduced among pregnant women (SMR 0.43). After adjustment for age, comorbidity, healthcare worker status, vaccination, and infecting viral variant, pregnant women had a markedly elevated risk of hospitalization (adjusted OR 4.96, 95% CI 3.86 to 6.37) and ICU admission (adjusted OR 6.58, 95% CI 3.29 to 13.18). The relative increase in hospitalization risk associated with pregnancy was greater in women without comorbidities than in those with comorbidities (P for heterogeneity 0.004). InterpretationA time-matched cohort study suggests that while pregnant women may be at a decreased risk of infection relative to the rest of the population, their risk of severe illness is markedly elevated if infection occurs. Given the safety of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in pregnancy, risk-benefit calculus strongly favours SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in pregnant women.

Relative Virulence of SARS-CoV-2 Among Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Individuals Hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2

BackgroundThe rapid development of safe and effective vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been a singular scientific achievement. Confounding due to health seeking behaviours and differential testing by vaccination status may bias analyses towards an apparent increase in infection severity following vaccination. We sought to determine whether risks of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death were diminished significantly by vaccination, even in individuals for whom vaccination failed to prevent hospitalization. MethodsWe used data from Ontario, Canadas Case and Contact Management database, merged to a provincial vaccination dataset (COVaxON) to create a time-matched cohort of individuals who were hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Each vaccinated individual was matched to up to five unvaccinated individuals based on test date of positive SARS-CoV-2 infection. Risk of ICU admission and death were evaluated using multivariable conditional logistic regression. Unmatched exploratory analyses were performed to identify sources of heterogeneity in vaccine effects. ResultsIn 20,064 individuals (3,353 vaccinated and 16,711 unvaccinated) hospitalized with infection due to SARS-CoV-2 between January 1st, 2021 and January 5th, 2022, vaccination with 1, 2, or 3 doses significantly reduced the risk of ICU admission and death. An inverse dose-response relationship was observed between vaccine doses received and both outcomes (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for ICU admission per additional dose: 0.66, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.71; aOR for death per additional dose: 0.78, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.84). The reduction in risk was greater for ICU admission than for death (P for heterogeneity <0.05), but no significant differences in risk were seen based on infecting variant of concern (VOC). InterpretationWe identified a decrease in the risk of ICU admission and death in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated, time-matched controls, even when vaccines failed to prevent infection sufficiently severe to cause hospitalization. Even with diminished efficacy of vaccines against infection with novel VOCs, vaccines remain an important tool for reduction of ICU admission and mortality.

HLA-dependent variation in SARS-CoV-2 CD8+ T cell cross-reactivity with human coronaviruses

Pre-existing T cell immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in individuals without prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2 has been reported in several studies. While emerging evidence hints toward prior exposure to common-cold human coronaviruses (HCoV), the extent of- and conditions for-cross-protective immunity between SARS-CoV-2 and HCoVs remain open. Here, by leveraging a comprehensive pool of publicly available functionally evaluated SARS-CoV-2 peptides, we report 126 immunogenic SARS-CoV-2 peptides with high sequence similarity to 285 MHC-presented target peptides from at least one of four HCoV, thus providing a map describing the landscape of SARS-CoV-2 shared and private immunogenic peptides with functionally validated T cell responses. Using this map, we show that while SARS-CoV-2 immunogenic peptides in general exhibit higher level of dissimilarity to both self-proteome and -microbiomes, there exist several SARS-CoV-2 immunogenic peptides with high similarity to various human protein coding genes, some of which have been reported to have elevated expression in severe COVID-19 patients. We then combine our map with a SARS-CoV-2-specific TCR repertoire data from COVID-19 patients and healthy controls and show that whereas the public repertoire for the majority of convalescent patients are dominated by TCRs cognate to private SARS-CoV-2 peptides, for a subset of patients, more than 50% of their public repertoires that show reactivity to SARS-CoV-2, consist of TCRs cognate to shared SARS-CoV-2-HCoV peptides. Further analyses suggest that the skewed distribution of TCRs cognate to shared and private peptides in COVID-19 patients is likely to be HLA-dependent. Finally, by utilising the global prevalence of HLA alleles, we provide 10 peptides with known cognate TCRs that are conserved across SARS-CoV-2 and multiple human coronaviruses and are predicted to be recognised by a high proportion of the global population. Overall, our work indicates the potential for HCoV-SARS-CoV-2 reactive CD8+ T cells, which is likely dependent on differences in HLA-coding genes among individuals. These findings may have important implications for COVID-19 heterogeneity and vaccine-induced immune responses as well as robustness of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and its variants.

Estimated Deaths, Intensive Care Admissions and Hospitalizations Averted in Canada during the COVID-19 Pandemic

IntroductionNational responses to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have been highly variable, which may explain some of the heterogeneity in the pandemics health and economic impacts across the world. We sought to explore the effectiveness of the Canadian pandemic response relative to responses in four peer countries with similar political, economic and health systems, and with close historical and cultural ties to Canada (the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Australia) from March 2020 to May 2022. MethodsWe used reported age-specific mortality data to generate estimates of pandemic mortality standardized to the Canadian population. Age-specific case fatality, hospitalization, and intensive care admission probabilities for the Canadian province of Ontario were applied to estimated deaths in order to calculate hospitalizations and intensive care admissions averted by the Canadian response. The monetary value of averted hospitalizations was estimated using cost estimates from the Canadian Institute for Health Information. Age-specific quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) lost due to fatality were estimated using published estimates. QALY were monetized using a net expected benefit approach. ResultsRelative to the United States, United Kingdom, and France, the Canadian pandemic response was estimated to have averted 94,492, 64,306 and 13,641 deaths respectively, with more than 480,000 hospitalizations averted, and 1 million QALY saved, relative to the United States. A United States pandemic response applied to Canada would have resulted in more than $40 billion in economic losses due to healthcare expenditures and lost QALY; losses relative to the United Kingdom and France would have been $21 billion and $5 billion respectively. By contrast, an Australian pandemic response would have averted over 28,000 additional deaths and averted nearly $9 billion in costs in Canada. ConclusionsCanada outperformed peer countries that aimed for mitigation, rather than elimination, of SARS-CoV-2 in the first two years of the pandemic, likely because of a more stringent public health response to disease transmission. This resulted in substantial numbers of lives saved and economic costs averted. However, comparison with Australia demonstrates that an elimination focus would have allowed Canada to save tens of thousands of lives, and would have saved substantial economic costs.

CD8+ T cell cross-reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 conferred by other coronavirus strains and influenza virus

While individuals infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) manifested a broad range in susceptibility and severity to the disease, the pre-existing immune memory of related pathogens can influence the disease outcome. Here, we investigated the potential extent of T cell cross-reactivity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that can be conferred by other coronaviruses and influenza virus, and generated a map of public and private predicted CD8+ T cell epitopes between coronaviruses. Moreover, to assess the potential risk of self-reactivity and/or diminished T cell response for peptides identical or highly similar to the host, we identified predicted epitopes with high sequence similarity with human proteome. Lastly, we compared predicted epitopes from coronaviruses with epitopes from influenza virus deposited in IEDB to support vaccine development against different virus strains. We believe the comprehensive in silico profile of private and public predicted epitopes across coronaviruses and influenza viruses will facilitate design of vaccines capable of protecting against various viral infections.