Monitoring COVID-19 in Colombia during the first year of the pandemic.

Background: COVID-19 cases in Medellín, the second largest city in Colombia, were monitored during the first year of the pandemic using both mathematical models based on transmission theory and surveillance from each observed epidemic phase. Design and Methods: Expected cases were estimated using mandatory reporting data from Colombia's national epidemiological surveillance system from March 7, 2020 to March 7, 2021. Initially, the range of daily expected cases was estimated using a Borel-Tanner stochastic model and a deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. A subsequent expanded version of the SIR model was used to include asymptomatic cases, severe cases and deaths. The moving average, standard deviation, and goodness of fit of estimated cases relative to confirmed reported cases were assessed, and local transmission in Medellin was contrasted with national transmission in Colombia. Results: The initial phase was characterized by imported case detection and the later phase by community transmission and increases in case magnitude and severity. In the initial phase, a maximum range of expected cases was obtained based on the stochastic model, which even accounted for the reduction of new imported cases following the closure of international airports. The deterministic estimate achieved an adequate fit with respect to accumulated cases until the conclusion of the mandatory national quarantine and gradual reopening, when reported cases increased. The estimated new cases were reasonably fit with the maximum reported incidence. Conclusion: Adequate model fit was obtained with the reported data. This experience of monitoring epidemic trajectory can be extended using models adapted to local conditions.

Hallazgos clínicos, epidemiológicos y virológicos del primer brote de covid-19 en Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia / Clinical, epidemiological and virological findings of the first covid-19 outbreak in Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia / Achados clínicos, epidemiológicos e virológicos do primeiro surto de covid-19 em Medellín, Antioquia, Colômbia

Resumen Objetivo: Caracterizar clínica, epidemiológica y virológicamente el primer brote de covid-19, a partir del caso primario en Medellín (Colombia), a través de las acciones de vigilancia y control epidemiológico realizadas para su contención. Metodología: Estudio descriptivo retrospectivo. Los casos secundarios se identificaron teniendo en cuenta la definición del protocolo del Instituto Nacional de Salud. La recolección de datos fue obtenida del Sistema de Vigilancia en Salud Pública, la investigación epidemiológica de campo, historia clínica y resultados de laboratorio. Se tuvieron en cuenta patrones clínicos de la enfermedad (signos y síntomas), componentes epidemiológicos (acciones de vigilancia y control de la transmisión) y virológicos (con el uso de la prueba diagnóstica para sars-CoV-2 y la evaluación de la recuperación virológica). La confirmación de los casos se hizo por técnica de detección diagnóstica de coronavirus Wuhan 2019 por Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction - Real Time, protocolo Charité, Berlín, Alemania 2020, procesadas en e informadas por el Laboratorio Nacional de Referencia del Instituto Nacional de Salud. Resultados: El caso primario de Medellín ingresó al país el 2 de marzo de 2020, procedente de Madrid (España) y fue confirmado el 9 de marzo. Se identificaron 52 contactos estrechos en 9 conglomerados. Las acciones de vigilancia en salud pública permitieron identificar 5 casos relacionados en una fase temprana de la enfermedad. Conclusiones: La caracterización del caso primario en Medellín permitió identificar el primer brote de covid-19 y orientar las medidas de control epidemiológico, como aislamientos, tomas de muestras, seguimiento a contactos y búsquedas de casos secundarios.

Abstract Objective: To characterize clinically, epidemiologically and virologically the first outbreak of covid-19, from the primary case in Medellín (Colombia), through surveillance and epidemiological control carried out for its containment. Methodology: Retrospective descriptive study. Secondary cases are identified taking into account the definition of the protocol of the National Institute of Health. Data collection was obtained of the Public Health Surveillance System, research epidemiological field, medical history and results of laboratory. Clinical patterns of the disease (signs and symptoms), epidemiological components (transmission surveillance and control actions) and virological (with the use of the diagnostic test for sars-CoV-2 and the evaluation of virological recovery). The confirmation of the cases was done by the diagnostic detection technique of Wuhan coronavirus 2019 by reverse transcription polymerase Chain Reaction - Real Time, Charité protocol, Berlin, Germany 2020, processed in and reported by the National Laboratory of Reference of the National Institute of Health. Results: The Medellín's primary case entered the country on March 2, 2020, from Madrid (Spain) and was confirmed on March 9. 52 close contacts were identified in 9 clusters. The surveillance actions in public health made it possible to identify 5 related cases in an early phase of the disease. Conclusions: The characterization of the primary case in Medellín seek to identify the first outbreak of covid-19 and guide the epidemiological control measures, such as isolations, intakes of samples, follow-up contacts and case searches secondary.

Resumo Objetivo: Caracterizar clínica, epidemiológica e virologicamente o primeiro surto de covid-19, desde o caso primário em Medellín (Colômbia), por meio das ações de vigilância e controle epidemiológico realizadas para sua contenção. Metodologia: Estudo descritivo retrospectivo. Os casos secundários foram identificados tendo em consideração a definição do protocolo do National Institute of Health. A coleta de dados foi obtida junto ao Sistema Único de Vigilância em Saúde, pesquisa epidemiológica de campo, história clínica e resultados laboratoriais. Foram considerados os padrões clínicos da doença (sinais e sintomas), componentes epidemiológicos (ações de vigilância e controle da transmissão) e virológicos (com uso do teste diagnóstico para sars-CoV-2 e avaliação da recuperação virológica). A confirmação dos casos foi feita pela técnica de detecção diagnóstica de coronavírus Wuhan 2019 por Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase de Transcrição Reversa - Tempo Real, protocolo Charité, Berlim, Alemanha 2020, processada e relatada pelo Laboratório de Referência Nacional do Instituto Nacional de Saúde. Resultados: O caso primário de Medellín entrou no país em 2 de março de 2020, a partir de Madrid (Espanha) e foi confirmado em 9 de março. 52 contatos próximos foram identificados em 9 clusters. As ações de vigilância em saúde pública possibilitaram a identificação de 5 casos relacionados em fase inicial da doença. Conclusões: A caracterização do caso primário em Medellín permitiu identificar o primeiro surto de covid-19 e orientar medidas de controle epidemiológico, como isolamento, amostragem, acompanhamento de contatos e busca de casos secundários.

Seroprevalence of hepatitis B and factors potentially associated in a population-based study in Medellin, Colombia.

The seroprevalence of hepatitis B (HB) and of potentially associated factors in Medellin, Colombia, were investigated 17years after the start of universal vaccination. Biological and sociodemographic data from a population survey with a multistage random sampling were analyzed in 6-64year old individuals. HB surface antigen, total HB core antibodies and HB surface antibodies, and in some cases IgM antibodies to HB core antigen, were tested in 2077 samples. Factors potentially associated with and natural, and vaccine immunity relative to susceptibility (absence of any marker) were analyzed using a multinomial logistic regression. The prevalence of serological patterns was: chronic infection 0.20% (95% CI 0.11-0.71), vaccine immunity 25.10% (95% CI 21.72-28.83) and natural immunity 2.60% (95% CI 1.80-3.74). No markers were detected in 71.30% (95% CI 67.70-74.83) of the individuals and evidence of recent infection was not detected. Relative to the absence of markers, natural immunity was potentially associated with age (6-17years and 41-64years) and sleeping less than 6 hours, while vaccine immunity was associated with age (6-17years), reporting vaccination against HB, belonging to high socioeconomic strata, home ownership and being obese, after adjusting for other variables. These results may be a population effect of mass vaccination. It is recommended to complete the vaccination schedule and to study in detail, persistence of antibodies and the role of obesity and socioeconomic strata in the vaccine immunity.

Gestión del talento humano en salud pública. Un análisis en cinco ciudades colombianas, 2014 / Talent Management in Public Health; an Analysis of Five Colombian Cities, 2014 / Gestão do talento humano em saúde pública. Análise em cinco cidades colombianas, 2014

Objetivo: describir las condiciones laborales del personal de salud vinculado a programas de salud pública. Metodología: se realizó un estudio descriptivo de corte transversal a una muestra representativa de 672 personas vinculadas a instituciones de salud habilitadas por el Ministerio de Salud en el 2013, que proveían servicios y programas de salud pública. Resultados: los hallazgos sugieren que la mayor parte del personal vinculado a servicios y programas de salud pública tenía formación en medicina, enfermería y odontología, condiciones laborales problemáticas -dado que predomina la contratación de corto plazo- y la cobertura en capacitación en salud pública era baja. La mayor idoneidad en salud pública de los encuestados se asoció con haber aprobado el examen de conocimiento para ingresar a la institución y tener evaluación del desempeño. Conclusión: se evidenció limitación en la formación y en la capacitación y deficientes condiciones laborales del personal que laboraba en los programas de salud pública.

Objective: describing the work conditions of the health personnel associated with public health programs. Methodology: we carried out a descriptive cross-section study on a representative sample consisting of 672 people associated with health institutions approved by the Ministry of Health in 2013, which provide public health programs and services. Results: findings suggest most of the personnel associated with public health services and programs had medicine, nursing, and dentistry training; had problematic working conditions - as short-term contracts are prevailing - and the public health training coverage was low. The most common form of adequacy in public health of the people surveyed was associated with approving the knowledge test necessary to become associated with the institution and with the performance assessments. Conclusions: it is possible to see limitations on training and education, as well as deficient working conditions for people who work in public health programs.

Objetivo: descrever as condições laborais dos profissionais de saúde vinculados a programas de saúde pública. Metodologia: foi realizado um estudo descritivo de corte transversal em amostra representativa de 672 pessoas vinculadas a instituições de saúde habilitadas pelo Ministério de Saúde no 2013, provindo serviços e programas de saúde pública. Resultados: os achados sugerem que a maior parte do pessoal vinculado a serviços e programas de saúde pública tinha formação em medicina, enfermagem e odontologia, condições laborais problemáticas -dado que predomina a contratação de curto prazo- e a cobertura em capacitação em saúde pública é baixa. A maior idoneidade em saúde pública dos inquiridos foi associada com ter aprovado o teste de conhecimento para ingressar à instituição e ter avaliação de desempenho. Conclusão: evidenciou-se limitação na formação e treinamento e condições laborais deficientes do pessoal que laborava nos programas de saúde pública.

[Herd immunity against rubella according to a survey of the population in Medellin, Colombia]. / Inmunidad colectiva contra la rubéola según una encuesta poblacional en Medellín, Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: Calculate the critical proportion (Pc) for achieving herd immunity based on a 2009 population study conducted in Medellin, Colombia, by age, globally and disaggregated by sex, location, and socioeconomic stratum. METHODS: A survey of seroprevalence in the population was conducted by means of a random sample of 2 124 individuals aged 6 to 64 that was representative of age, sex, and location. The basic reproduction number was estimated using a quadratic regression of the average IgG titers for rubella by age in unvaccinated individuals with titers greater than or equal to 15 IU/ml. The effective reproduction number (Re) was calculated with the data on the weighted proportion of protection by age, sex, location, and socioeconomic stratum. RESULTS: Overall, the Pc was 90.0% (95% CI, 88.6-95.2%) and the Re was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.8-1.8), for a weighted proportion of protection of 89.4% (95% CI, 86.8- 91.6%). Protection was lower than the expected Pc in both sexes, in high and low socioeconomic strata, and in the rural area. In the urban area, protection was greater than the Pc (89.4%, with a 95% CI, 86.6-91.7%, compared to 87.4% and a 95% CI, 85.2-87.8%). CONCLUSIONS: The urban area has made progress toward herd immunity, but the overall proportion of protection in women, the rural area, and the high socioeconomic strata must be increased. The effective number may be greater than one, indicating the potential for the spread of the disease.