Exposure based geographic analysis mode for estimating the expected pedestrian crash frequency in urban traffic zones; case study of Tehran.

Predicting pedestrian crashes on urban roads is one of the most important issues related to urban traffic safety. Due to the lack of spatial correlation and instability in the crash data, the statistical reliability of Empirical Bayesian method in the combination of the observed and predicted crash frequency is questionable. In this study, an EB model has been developed to estimate the expected frequency of pedestrian crashes in urban areas using the over-dispersion parameter taking into account the spatial correlation of crash data. The objective of this study is to estimate the expected geographical frequency of pedestrian crashes using the Empirical Bayesian (EB) approach using weighted geographical regression models for pedestrian crashes in Tehran. For doing so, four models of geographic weighted Poisson regression (GWPR), geographic weighted zero-inflated Poisson regression (GWZIPR), geographic weighted Negative Binomial regression (GWNBR) and the geographic weighted zero-inflated Negative Binomial regression (GWZINBR) have been used. In this study, the areas analyzed for the development of the EB model based on pedestrian exposure variables include traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Finally, the EB model was extended to the Geographic Empirical Bayesian (Ge-EB) model. The results showed that GWZIPR and GWZINBR models make more accurate predictions. These models had the lowest values of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the lowest values of Cross Validation and the lowest values of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The Moran and Variance Inflated Factor (VIF) indices were also within acceptable limits. The weighted negative binomial distribution could moderate the amount of heterogeneity of crash data to some extent. This study has shown the dispersion and density of pedestrian crashes without having the volume of pedestrians and thus can be done by taking safety measures in places prone to pedestrian crashes.

Relationship between using cell phone and the risk of accident with motor vehicles: An analytical cross-sectional study.

PURPOSE: Traffic accidents are one of the major health problems in the world, being the first cause of burden of illness and the second leading cause of death in Iran. The Sistan-Baluchestan province is one of the most accidental provinces of Iran with the highest rate of accidents-caused deaths. This study was conducted to determine the risk factors associated with traffic accidents in Zahedan through 2013 to 2016. METHODS: This analytical cross-sectional study was carried out on 223 drivers from Zahedan who were traumatized by traffic accident and sent to Zahedan hospitals. The data were obtained through interviews taken by the trained interviewers via refereeing to the medical records and collected in the researcher-made checklist. Census was obtained from the study subjects. For data analysis, independent t-test, one-way ANOVA, Chi-square and logistic regression were used with the Stata software version 11.0. RESULTS: In this study, 223 male subjects with the mean age of (32.54 ± 12.95) years, 39.8% single and 60.2% married, entered for investigation. Most accidents (38.8%) occurred between 12:00 to 17:59. While driving, 47.1% of the study subjects were using cell phones, 89.1% had manual use of mobile phones, 21.9% had a habit of sending short message service (SMS) and 23.4% had sent SMS within 10 min before the accident. The one way analysis of variance showed that the mean age of individuals with marital status, driving experience, education and accident with motorcycle were significantly different (p < 0.05). Also, the multivariate logistic regression test indicated a significant relationship of smoking, ethnicity, insurance and SMS typing while driving with motorcycle accident (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In this study, SMS and smoking while driving had the highest risk among the variables studied in the motorcycle accidents. Therefore, effective education attempting to enhance people's awareness about the consequences of using cell phone and smoking during driving to reduce traffic accidents seems necessary.