Predictive modeling of the COVID-19 data using a new version of the flexible Weibull model and machine learning techniques

Statistical modeling and forecasting of time-to-events data are crucial in every applied sector. For the modeling and forecasting of such data sets, several statistical methods have been introduced and implemented. This paper has two aims, i.e., (i) statistical modeling and (ii) forecasting. For modeling time-to-events data, we introduce a new statistical model by combining the flexible Weibull model with the Z-family approach. The new model is called the Z flexible Weibull extension (Z-FWE) model, where the characterizations of the Z-FWE model are obtained. The maximum likelihood estimators of the Z-FWE distribution are obtained. The evaluation of the estimators of the Z-FWE model is assessed in a simulation study. The Z-FWE distribution is applied to analyze the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients. Finally, for forecasting the COVID-19 data set, we use machine learning (ML) techniques i.e., artificial neural network (ANN) and group method of data handling (GMDH) with the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). Based on our findings, it is observed that ML techniques are more robust in terms of forecasting than the ARIMA model.

On the implementation of a new version of the Weibull distribution and machine learning approach to model the COVID-19 data.

Statistical methodologies have broader applications in almost every sector of life including education, hydrology, reliability, management, and healthcare sciences. Among these sectors, statistical modeling and predicting data in the healthcare sector is very crucial. In this paper, we introduce a new method, namely, a new extended exponential family to update the distributional flexibility of the existing models. Based on this approach, a new version of the Weibull model, namely, a new extended exponential Weibull model is introduced. The applicability of the new extended exponential Weibull model is shown by considering two data sets taken from the health sciences. The first data set represents the mortality rate of the patients infected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Mexico. Whereas, the second set represents the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients in Holland. Utilizing the same data sets, we carry out forecasting using three machine learning (ML) methods including support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and neural network autoregression (NNAR). To assess their forecasting performances, two statistical accuracy measures, namely, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are considered. Based on our findings, it is observed that the RF algorithm is very effective in predicting the death rate of the COVID-19 data in Mexico. Whereas, for the second data, the SVR performs better as compared to the other methods.

A new statistical approach for modeling the bladder cancer and leukemia patients data sets: Case studies in the medical sector.

Statistical methods are frequently used in numerous healthcare and other related sectors. One of the possible applications of the statistical methods is to provide the best description of the data sets in the healthcare sector. Keeping in view the applicability of statistical methods in the medical sector, numerous models have been introduced. In this paper, we also introduce a novel statistical method called, a new modified-G family of distributions. Several mathematical properties of the new modified-G family are derived. Based on the new modified-G method, a new updated version of the Weibull model called, a new modified-Weibull distribution is introduced. Furthermore, the estimators of the parameters of the new modified-G distributions are also obtained. Finally, the applicability of the new modified-Weibull distribution is illustrated by analyzing two medical sets. Using certain analytical tools, it is observed that the new modified-Weibull distribution is the best choice to deal with the medical data sets.

Impact of Facebook and Newspaper Advertising on Sales: A Comparative Study of Online and Print Media.

Marketing means the strategies and tactics an organization undertakes for attracting consumers to promote the buying or selling of a product or service. Active marketing is about receiving messages from potential buyers to create ways to influence their purchasing decisions. Advertising is one of the most prominent marketing strategies to promote products to consumers. It is well known that advertisement has a significant impact on the sale of certain goods or services. In this paper, we consider two mediums of advertisement, such as Facebook (which is an online medium) and Newspaper (which is a printed medium). We consider a dataset representing the advertising budget (in hundreds of US dollars) of an electronic company and the sales of that company. We apply the quantitative research approach, and the data which are used in this research are secondary data. For analysis purposes, we consider a statistical tool called simple linear regression modeling. To check the significance of the advertising on sale, definite statistical tests are applied. Based on the findings of this research, it is observed that advertising has a significant impact on sales. It is also showed that spending money on advertising through Facebook has better sales than newspapers. The finding of this research shows that the use of computer-based technologies and online mediums has a brighter future for advertising. Furthermore, a new statistical model is introduced using the Z family approach. The proposed model is very interesting and possesses heavy-tailed properties. Finally, the applicability of the proposed model is illustrated by considering the financial dataset.

Decision-Making for the Lifetime Performance Index.

The purpose of this research is to develop a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for lifetime performance index C L for the parameter of mixture Rayleigh-Half Normal distribution (RHN) under progressively type-II right-censored samples under the constraint of knowing the lower specification limit (L). Additionally, we suggest an asymptotic normal distribution for the MLE for C L in order to construct a mechanism for evaluating products' lifespan efficiency. We have specified all the steps to carry out the test. Additionally, not only does hypothesis testing successfully assess the lifetime performance of items, but it also functions as a supplier selection criterion for the consumer. Finally, we have added two real data examples as illustration examples. These two applications are provided to demonstrate how the results can be applied.

Estimate Stress-Strength Reliability Model Using Rayleigh and Half-Normal Distribution.

In the field of life testing, it is very important to study the reliability of any component under testing. One of the most important subjects is the "stress-strength reliability" term which always refers to the quantity P (X > Y) in any statistical literature. It resamples a system with random strength (X) that is subjected to a random strength (Y) such that a system fails in case the stress exceeds the strength. In this study, we consider stress-strength reliability where the strength (X) follows Rayleigh-half-normal distribution and stress (Y 1, Y 2, Y 3, and Y 4) follows Rayleigh-half-normal distribution, exponential distribution, Rayleigh distribution, and half-normal distribution, respectively. This effort comprises determining the general formulations of the reliabilities of a system. Also, the maximum likelihood estimation approach and method of moment (MOM) will be utilized to estimate the parameters. Finally, reliability has been attained utilizing various values of stress and strength parameters.

Comparison of COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics in Asian Countries with Statistical Modeling.

In the current scenario, the outbreak of a pandemic disease COVID-19 is of great interest. A broad statistical analysis of this event is still to come, but it is immediately needed to evaluate the disease dynamics in order to arrange the appropriate quarantine activities, to estimate the required number of places in hospitals, the level of individual protection, the rate of isolation of infected persons, and among others. In this article, we provide a convenient method of data comparison that can be helpful for both the governmental and private organizations. Up to date, facts and figures of the total the confirmed cases, daily confirmed cases, total deaths, and daily deaths that have been reported in the Asian countries are provided. Furthermore, a statistical model is suggested to provide a best description of the COVID-19 total death data in the Asian countries.