A data-driven model for COVID-19 pandemic - Evolution of the attack rate and prognosis for Brazil.

We introduce a compartmental model SEIAHRV (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Asymptomatic, Hospitalized, Recovered, Vaccinated) with age structure for the spread of the SARAS-CoV virus. In order to model current different vaccines we use compartments for individuals vaccinated with one and two doses without vaccine failure and a compartment for vaccinated individual with vaccine failure. The model allows to consider any number of different vaccines with different efficacies and delays between doses. Contacts among age groups are modeled by a contact matrix and the contagion matrix is obtained from a probability of contagion p c per contact. The model uses known epidemiological parameters and the time dependent probability p c is obtained by fitting the model output to the series of deaths in each locality, and reflects non-pharmaceutical interventions. As a benchmark the output of the model is compared to two good quality serological surveys, and applied to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of We also estimate the attack rate, the total proportion of cases (symptomatic and asymptomatic) with respect to the total population, for all Brazilian states since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the model present here is relevant to assessing present policies not only in Brazil but also in any place where good serological surveys are not available.

Enhanced nonsynaptic epileptiform activity in the dentate gyrus after kainate-induced status epilepticus.

Understanding the mechanisms that influence brain excitability and synchronization provides hope that epileptic seizures can be controlled. In this scenario, non-synaptic mechanisms have a critical role in seizure activity. The contribution of ion transporters to the regulation of seizure-like activity has not been extensively studied. Here, we examined how non-synaptic epileptiform activity (NEA) in the CA1 and dentate gyrus (DG) regions of the hippocampal formation were affected by kainic acid (KA) administration. NEA enhancement in the DG and suppression in area CA1 were associated with increased NKCC1 expression in neurons and severe neuronal loss accompanied by marked glial proliferation, respectively. Twenty-four hours after KA, the DG exhibited intense microglial activation that was associated with reduced cell density in the infra-pyramidal lamina; however, cellular density recovered 7 days after KA. Intense Ki67 immunoreactivity was observed in the subgranular proliferative zone of the DG, which indicates new neuron incorporation into the granule layer. In addition, bumetanide, a selective inhibitor of neuronal Cl(-) uptake mediated by NKCC1, was used to confirm that the NKCC1 increase effectively contributed to NEA changes in the DG. Furthermore, 7 days after KA, prominent NKCC1 staining was identified in the axon initial segments of granule cells, at the exact site where action potentials are preferentially initiated, which endowed these neurons with increased excitability. Taken together, our data suggest a key role of NKCC1 in NEA in the DG.

Firing patterns and synchronization in nonsynaptic epileptiform activity: the effect of gap junctions modulated by potassium accumulation.

Several lines of evidence point to the modification of firing patterns and of synchronization due to gap junctions (GJs) as having a role in the establishment of epileptiform activity (EA). However, previous studies consider GJs as ohmic resistors, ignoring the effects of intense variations in ionic concentration known to occur during seizures. In addition to GJs, extracellular potassium is regarded as a further important factor involved in seizure initiation and sustainment. To analyze how these two mechanisms act together to shape firing and synchronization, we use a detailed computational model for in vitro high-K(+) and low-Ca(2+) nonsynaptic EA. The model permits us to explore the modulation of electrotonic interactions under ionic concentration changes caused by electrodiffusion in the extracellular space, altered by tortuosity. In addition, we investigate the special case of null GJ current. Increased electrotonic interaction alters bursts and action potential frequencies, favoring synchronization. The particularities of pattern changes depend on the tortuosity and array size. Extracellular potassium accumulation alone modifies firing and synchronization when the GJ coupling is null.

Modeling extracellular space electrodiffusion during Leão's spreading depression.

Computational modeling of spreading depression (SD) has been used increasingly to study the different mechanisms that are involved in this phenomenon. One of them that is still under discussion involves the mechanisms that originate the extracellular electrical field responsible for the dc potential shift. The main goal of this paper is to present a mathematical derivation for the extracellular electric field that is incorporated in a SD model that has the basic structure of Tuckwell and Miura's model, but with the ionic variations calculated electrochemically. Electrodiffusion equations were used to describe the ionic movement of the four ions Na+, K+, Cl-, and Ca2+. These are mutually coupled by the electric field within the extracellular space (ECS). The results from the simulations show that the model is able to calculate the effect of the ionic changes along the ECS on the electric field, and to reproduce the SD in respect to the most important features that characterize the phenomenon experimentally in the retina or hippocampus. It is suggested that the extracellular negative field-potential shift during SD is due to an electrical field generated by a Goldman-Hodgkin-Katz equation acting within the ECS.

Functional imaging of the retinal layers by laser scattering: an approach for the study of Leão's spreading depression in intact tissue.

This paper presents a novel optical approach for the study of spreading depression in isolated retina. The method makes it possible to register the laser light scattered from each layer of the tissue, yielding a functional image of the retina during spreading depression. The tissue is kept intact, since histological cuts are not necessary. Measurements of other variables, such as extracellular potential, are also allowed by the described method. This is done simultaneously with the functional image in a high spatial resolution, with the positioning of the microelectrode tip being easily monitored. The information about temporal and spatial evolution of light was compacted in a single image. The image-processing technique used here enables the visualization of the light scattered by the inner plexiform layer (IPL), which is the most prominent scatter layer during spreading depression. The wavefront velocity and its increase as two wavefronts approach each other can then be determined, and it is also possible to observe the thickness variation of the tissue during the wave travel. The relationship between two peaks of light-scattering sequence during the phenomenon was studied at two wavelengths (632.8 and 543.5 nm). This relationship is shown to be dependent on the wavelength.