ABSTRACT
Static pinch strength against a therapist's gentle pull is evaluated using the pincer grasp component of the Fugl Meyer Assessment (FMA) to assess pinch impairment after stroke. In the pincer grasp component, therapists applied a gentle pull to distinguish between a score of 1 (moderate pinch impairment) and a score of 2 (no pinch impairment). The gentle pull is described as a resistance equivalent to a manual muscle test (MMT) score 4/5. The accepted use of "gentle" as a qualitative description for the pull results is a non-standardized subjective interpretation. The goal of this paper was to determine the quantitative value of the gentle pull applied by the therapists as in their clinical practice using a pinch-pull gripping system. The FMA protocol was used to standardize the body and fingers positions of three occupational therapists who were then instructed to apply a gentle pull of 4/5 MMT using their thumb and index fingers (in a tip-to-tip pinch). The results show that the therapists exerted a mean gentle pull (4/5 MMT score) of 6.34 ± 0.98 N with high reliability and acceptable repeatability. In investigating the ability of healthy subjects to resist the gentle pull, 50 adult male volunteers were instructed to pinch the pincer object and resist a dynamic loading exerted by the pinch-pull gripping system as much as possible to the moment the pincer object slips away. The results show that all subjects were able to exert a pulling force higher than the quantitative value of the gentle pull.
ABSTRACT
The coronavirus COVID-19 has recently started to spread rapidly in Malaysia. The number of total infected cases has increased to 3662 on 05 April 2020, leading to the country being placed under lockdown. As the main public concern is whether the current situation will continue for the next few months, this study aims to predict the epidemic peak using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, with incorporation of the mortality cases. The infection rate was estimated using the Genetic Algorithm (GA), while the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model was used to provide short-time forecasting of the number of infected cases. The results show that the estimated infection rate is 0.228 ± 0.013, while the basic reproductive number is 2.28 ± 0.13. The epidemic peak of COVID-19 in Malaysia could be reached on 26 July 2020, with an uncertain period of 30 days (12 July-11 August). Possible interventions by the government to reduce the infection rate by 25% over two or three months would delay the epidemic peak by 30 and 46 days, respectively. The forecasting results using the ANFIS model show a low Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.041; a low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.45%; and a high coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9964. The results also show that an intervention has a great effect on delaying the epidemic peak and a longer intervention period would reduce the epidemic size at the peak. The study provides important information for public health providers and the government to control the COVID-19 epidemic.
