ABSTRACT
New federal regulations allow HIV-positive individuals to be live kidney donors; however, potential candidacy for donation is poorly understood given the increased risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) associated with HIV infection. To better understand this risk, we compared the incidence of ESRD among 41 968 HIV-positive participants of North America AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design followed for a median of 5 years with the incidence of ESRD among comparable HIV-negative participants of National Health and Nutrition Examination III followed for a median of 14 years. We used risk associations from multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to derive cumulative incidence estimates for selected HIV-positive scenarios (no history of diabetes, hypertension, AIDS, or hepatitis C virus coinfection) and compared these estimates with those from similarly selected HIV-negative scenarios. For 40-year-old HIV-positive individuals with health characteristics that were similar to those of age-matched kidney donors, viral load <400 copies/mL, and CD4+ count ≥500 cells/µL, the 9-year cumulative incidence of ESRD was higher than that of their HIV-negative peers, yet still low: 2.5 versus 1.1 per 10 000 among white women, 3.0 versus 1.3 per 10 000 among white men, 13.2 versus 3.6 per 10 000 among black women, and 15.8 versus 4.4 per 10 000 among black men. HIV-positive individuals with no comorbidities and well-controlled disease may be considered low-risk kidney donor candidates.
Subject(s)
Graft Rejection/epidemiology , HIV Infections/complications , Kidney Failure, Chronic/epidemiology , Kidney Transplantation/adverse effects , Living Donors , Adult , Case-Control Studies , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Glomerular Filtration Rate , Graft Rejection/etiology , Graft Survival , HIV Infections/virology , HIV Seropositivity , HIV-1/physiology , Humans , Incidence , Kidney Failure, Chronic/etiology , Kidney Function Tests , Male , Middle Aged , Nephrectomy , North America/epidemiology , Prognosis , Risk Factors , Viral LoadABSTRACT
Clinical decisions are ideally based on randomized trials but must often rely on observational data analyses, which are less straightforward and more influenced by methodology. The authors, from a series of expert roundtables convened by the Forum for Collaborative HIV Research on the use of observational studies to assess cardiovascular disease risk in human immunodeficiency virus infection, recommend that clinicians who review or interpret epidemiological publications consider 7 key statistical issues: (1) clear explanation of confounding and adjustment; (2) handling and impact of missing data; (3) consistency and clinical relevance of outcome measurements and covariate risk factors; (4) multivariate modeling techniques including time-dependent variables; (5) how multiple testing is addressed; (6) distinction between statistical and clinical significance; and (7) need for confirmation from independent databases. Recommendations to permit better understanding of potential methodological limitations include both responsible public access to de-identified source data, where permitted, and exploration of novel statistical methods.
