Utility of the NEONATE Score at an Institution that Routinely Performs the Hybrid Procedure for Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome.

NEONATE score > 17 has been proposed as a risk factor for interstage mortality/cardiac transplant (IM/T) for patients with single ventricle physiology. Hybrid procedure is assigned 6 points, the highest possible score for that surgical variable. Most centers reserve the hybrid procedure for high-risk patients. Goal of this study was to evaluate the NEONATE score at a center that routinely performs the hybrid procedure. Retrospective chart review of patients undergoing the hybrid procedure was performed (2008-2021). Demographics and variables used for the NEONATE score were collected. Maximization of Youden's J Statistic used to determine cohort-specific optimal threshold for patients undergoing comprehensive Stage II procedure (H-CSII) versus those with IM/T (H-IM/T). Total of 120 patients met inclusion criteria (H-CSII = 105, H-IM/T = 15). Gestational age was median 39 weeks (IQR 38, 39) and birth weight was 3.18 kg (2.91, 3.57). No patient was discharged with opiates or required post-operative extracorporeal circulatory support. Optimal threshold, as selected by maximizing Youden's J Statistic, was 22. Score > 22 had a positive predictive value of 0.33 (95% CI 0.12-0.62), negative predictive values of 0.90 (95% CI 0.83-0.95), and accuracy of 0.83 (95% CI 0.75-0.90) for IM/T. At a center that routinely performs the hybrid procedure, value of > 22 had the highest accuracy. This suggests that the hybrid procedure is not necessarily intrinsically a risk-factor for IM/T, but rather patient selection for the hybrid procedure may play a larger role at centers that do not routinely perform this procedure.

Quantifying the relationship between sub-population wastewater samples and community-wide SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence.

Robust epidemiological models relating wastewater to community disease prevalence are lacking. Assessments of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates have relied primarily on convenience sampling, which does not provide reliable estimates of community disease prevalence due to inherent biases. This study conducted serial stratified randomized samplings to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in 3717 participants, and obtained weekly samples of community wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in Jefferson County, KY (USA) from August 2020 to February 2021. Using an expanded Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, the longitudinal estimates of the disease prevalence were obtained and compared with the wastewater concentrations using regression analysis. The model analysis revealed significant temporal differences in epidemic peaks. The results showed that in some areas, the average incidence rate, based on serological sampling, was 50 % higher than the health department rate, which was based on convenience sampling. The model-estimated average prevalence rates correlated well with the wastewater (correlation = 0.63, CI (0.31,0.83)). In the regression analysis, a one copy per ml-unit increase in weekly average wastewater concentration of SARS-CoV-2 corresponded to an average increase of 1-1.3 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection per 100,000 residents. The analysis indicates that wastewater may provide robust estimates of community spread of infection, in line with the modeled prevalence estimates obtained from stratified randomized sampling, and is therefore superior to publicly available health data.