Climate change impacts on Anopheles (K.) cruzii in urban areas of Atlantic Forest of Brazil: Challenges for malaria diseases.

Around 27% of South Americans live in central and southern Brazil. Of 19,400 human malaria cases in Brazil in 2018, some were from the southern and southeastern states. High abundance of malaria vectors is generally positively associated with malaria incidence. Expanding geographic distributions of Anopheles vector mosquito species (e.g. A. cruzii) in the face of climate change processes would increase risk of such malaria transmission; such risk is of particular concern in regions that hold human population concentrations near present limits of vector species' geographic distributions. We modeled effects of likely climate changes on the distribution of A. cruzii, evaluating two scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions for 2050, as simulated in 21 general circulation models and two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2050. We tested 1305 candidate models, and chose among them based on statistical significance, predictive performance, and complexity. The models closely approximated the known geographic distribution of the species under current conditions. Under scenarios of future climate change, we noted increases in suitable area for the mosquito vector species in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states, including areas close to 30 densely populated cities. Under RCP 8.5, our models anticipate areal increases of >75% for this important malaria vector in the vicinity of 20 large Brazilian cities. We developed models that anticipate increased suitability for the mosquito species; around 50% of Brazilians reside in these areas, and ∼89% of foreign tourists visit coastal areas in this region. Under climate change thereefore, the risk and vulnerability of human populations to malaria transmission appears bound to increase.

Sampling effort and the drivers of plant species richness in the Brazilian coastal regions.

The causes of the gradients in species richness remain contentious because of multiple competing hypotheses, significant knowledge gaps, and regional effects of environmental and historical factors on species pools. Coastal zones are subject to particular sets of environmental constraints, thus identifying the drivers of species richness therein should shed light on the regional gradients of species diversity. Here, we investigate the geographic patterns and drivers of plant diversity across coastal regions while allowing for pervasive sampling deficiencies. Based on 142708 records of flowering plant occurrences, we mapped species richness and estimated the level of knowledge across the coastal zone of Brazil. Based on inventory completeness, we used linear regression models to test the predictive power of environmental variables that represent different environmental hypotheses. Few cells (25%) were well-surveyed, reflecting little knowledge about the distribution and diversity of flowering plants on the highly-populated Brazilian coast. Still, we found support for the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis as the best explanation of the variation in species richness of flowering plants in this region. Soil properties and water constraints are also important factors. Although our work emphasises the paucity of information on plant diversity in tropical and human-dominated areas, we show that knowledge limitations should not curb our capability of addressing hypotheses about species diversity.

The potential impact of white-nose syndrome on the conservation status of north american bats.

White-Nose syndrome (WNS) is an emergent infectious disease that has already killed around six million bats in North America and has spread over two thousand kilometers from its epicenter. However, only a few studies on the possible impacts of the fungus on bat hosts were conducted, particularly concerning its implications for bat conservation. We predicted the consequences of WNS spread by generating a map with potential areas for its occurrence based on environmental conditions in sites where the disease already occurs, and overlaid it with the geographic distribution of all hibernating bats in North America. We assumed that all intersection localities would negatively affect local bat populations and reassessed their conservation status based on their potential population decline. Our results suggest that WNS will not spread widely throughout North America, being mostly restricted to the east and southeast regions. In contrast, our most pessimistic scenario of population decline indicated that the disease would threaten 32% of the bat species. Our results could help further conservation plans to preserve bat diversity in North America.