ABSTRACT
Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) adversely affects financial system functioning with potentially critical repercussions for economies and corporations worldwide. Financial system efficiency (FSE) has a vital influence on fostering optimal economic growth and development; however, the impact of EPU on FSE remains under-explored. This study investigates the effect of EPU on FSE along with its components financial institution efficiency (FIE) and financial market efficiency (FME). Using data from 22 countries over a 20-year period (2002-2021), our analysis reveals a significant negative effect of EPU on FSE, FIE and FME. Notably, our split-sample analysis highlights the accentuated adverse effects of EPU in high-EPU regimes, emphasising the importance of vigilance during periods of elevated policy uncertainty. We conduct a series of sensitivity tests, including alternative measures of EPU, FSE, FIE and FME, and apply two-stage least squares and two-step dynamic system generalised method of moments estimators and introduce additional control variables. These tests consistently reaffirm the core conclusions of our study. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for policymakers.
ABSTRACT
Differences in institutions have garnered much attention in recent years as one of the primary reasons for long-term economic performance, and a vast corpus of theoretical and empirical research demonstrates that financial development can have a substantial impact on economic and financial performance. In fast-growing emerging markets, the demand for financial services has considerably increased, which amplified the need for an efficient regulatory framework to deal with the sensitive nature of financial activities. Surprisingly, the existing literature on the impact of institutions and finance is focused on developed economies, while emerging markets are rarely focused on. Since emerging markets are becoming increasingly important as a result of the swift evolution of institutional and financial transformation, it is crucial to examine how the growth of financial markets reacts to institutional quality. This study investigates the role of institutions in promoting finance in emerging economies using the balanced panel dataset of 21 emerging market. Given the endogenous relationship between institutions and finance, the paper applies a two-stage least squares estimator to test the settler mortality hypothesis in this context. Aligned with theoretical intuition, the empirical result shows that settler mortality is a relevant instrument to institutions. Furthermore, the study performs robustness, using framework that deals with heterogeneity, and cross-section dependence. This empirical effort validates La Porta's Law and Finance Hypothesis in the context of emerging markets. The results of the study are found robust across the variety of alternative measures of institutions and finance, and standard error correction specifications. Therefore, the study offers useful insight into policy implications.
