An epidemic model for COVID-19 transmission in Argentina: Exploration of the alternating quarantine and massive testing strategies.

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged authorities at different levels of government administration around the globe. When faced with diseases of this severity, it is useful for the authorities to have prediction tools to estimate in advance the impact on the health system as well as the human, material, and economic resources that will be necessary. In this paper, we construct an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model that incorporates the social structure of Mar del Plata, the 4°most inhabited city in Argentina and head of the Municipality of General Pueyrredón. Moreover, we consider detailed partitions of infected individuals according to the illness severity, as well as data of local health resources, to bring predictions closer to the local reality. Tuning the corresponding epidemic parameters for COVID-19, we study an alternating quarantine strategy: a part of the population can circulate without restrictions at any time, while the rest is equally divided into two groups and goes on successive periods of normal activity and lockdown, each one with a duration of τ days. We also implement a random testing strategy with a threshold over the population. We found that τ=7 is a good choice for the quarantine strategy since it reduces the infected population and, conveniently, it suits a weekly schedule. Focusing on the health system, projecting from the situation as of September 30, we foresee a difficulty to avoid saturation of the available ICU, given the extremely low levels of mobility that would be required. In the worst case, our model estimates that four thousand deaths would occur, of which 30% could be avoided with proper medical attention. Nonetheless, we found that aggressive testing would allow an increase in the percentage of people that can circulate without restrictions, and the medical facilities to deal with the additional critical patients would be relatively low.

Effectiveness of Biochar Obtained from Corncob for Immobilization of Lead in Contaminated Soil.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have explored the potential for using biochar as a soil amendment in agriculture. However, it can also be used as a gentle remediation option for contaminant reduction. Biochar is a by-product obtained from the pyrolysis of biomass (organic matter). It is known for its long-lasting chemical properties, wide surface area values, and carbon-richness, which make it an efficient method for the immobilization of organic and inorganic contaminants such as heavy metals. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to analyze the efficiency of biochar, obtained from the gasification of corncob, for the immobilization of lead in contaminated soils. METHODS: In the present study, biochar from corncob was used as an amendment for soil contaminated with lead (extracted from the municipality of Malambo, Colombia) in order to estimate its ability to immobilize leaching lead. A comparison laboratory test applied a modified biochar produced with a 10% hydrogen peroxide chemical treatment. In addition, a pot experiment was done with both biochar by sowing seeds of Pennisetum clandestinum for 33 days. During this period, plant growth was measured for the different amendments of biochar concentrations. RESULTS: Laboratory tests indicated that unmodified biochar obtained a maximum retention of 61.46% of lead, while the modified biochar obtained only 44.53% retention. In the pot experiments, the modified biochar indicated high germination and growth of seeds (up to 89.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Although the lead immobilization in soil was positive for both cases, the use of soil with high concentrations of lead (167.62 g/kg) does not indicate biochar's effectiveness for purposes of comparison with the current United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) limit value (400 ppm for bare soil in urban play areas). Therefore, further studies are recommended using soil with lower lead concentration levels. COMPETING INTERESTS: The authors declare no competing financial interests. One author is an employee of Pure Earth.