Cancer-specific survival by stage of bladder cancer and factors collected by Mallorca Cancer Registry associated to survival.

BACKGROUND: Information about survival by stage in bladder cancer is scarce, as well as about survival of non-invasive bladder cancer. The aims of this study are: 1) to find out the distribution of bladder cancer by stage; 2) to determine cancer-specific survival by stage of bladder cancer; 3) to identify factors that explain and predict the likelihood of survival and the risk of dying from these cancers. METHODS: Incident bladder cancer cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2011 were identified through the Mallorca Cancer Registry. INCLUSION CRITERIA: cases with code C67 according to the ICD-O 3rd edition with any behaviour and any histology, except lymphomas and small cell carcinomas. Cases identified exclusively through the death certificate were excluded. We collected the following data: sex; age; date and method of diagnosis; histology according to the ICD-O 3rd edition; T, N, M and stage at the time of diagnosis; and date of follow-up or death. End point of follow-up was 31 December 2015. Multiple imputation (MI) was performed to estimate cases with unknown stage. Cases with benign or indeterminate behaviour were excluded for the survival analysis. Actuarial and Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression models were used for survival analysis. RESULTS: One thousand nine hundred fourteen cases were identified. 14% were women and 65.4% were 65 years or older. 3.9% had no stage (benign or undetermined behaviour) and 11.5% had unknown stage. After MI, 37.5% were in stage Ta (non-invasive papillary carcinoma), 3.2% in stage Tis (carcinoma in situ), 34.3% in stage I, 11.7% in Stage II, 4.3% in stage III, and 9.0% in stage IV. Survival was 76% at 5 years. Survival by stage: 98% at stage Ta, 90% at stage Tis, 85% at stage I, 45% at stage II, 35% at stage III, and 7% at stage IV. The Cox model showed that age, histology, and stage, but not sex, were associated with survival. CONCLUSION: Bladder cancer survival vary greatly with stage, among both non-invasive and invasive cases. The percentage of non-invasive cancers is high. Stage, age, and histology are associated to survival.

Population-based risk assessment of second primary cancers following a first head and neck cancer: patterns of association and difficulties of its analysis

Purpose The diagnosis of a second primary cancer (SPC) is a major concern in the follow-up of survivors of a primary head and neck cancer (HNC), but the anatomic subsites in the head and neck area are close, making it difficult to distinguish a SPC of a recurrence and therefore register it correctly. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from two population-based cancer registries in Catalonia, Spain: the Tarragona Cancer Registry and the Girona Cancer Registry. All patients diagnosed with HNC during the period 1994–2013 were registered and followed-up to collect cases of SPC. We analysed the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and the excess absolute risk (EAR) to determine the risk of second malignancies following a prior HNC. Results 923 SPC were found in a cohort of 5646 patients diagnosed of a first head and neck cancer. Men had an increased risk of a SPC with a SIR of 2.22 and an EAR of 216.76. Women also had an increased risk with a SIR of 2.02 and an EAR of 95.70. We show the risk for different tumour sites and discuss the difficulties of the analysis. Conclusion The risks of a SPC following a prior HNC in Tarragona and Girona are similar to those previously found in other similar cohorts. It would appear to be advisable to make a revision of the international rules of classification of multiple tumours, grouping the sites of head and neck area with new aetiological criteria to better determine and interpret the risks of SPC obtained in these studies (AU)

Population-based risk assessment of second primary cancers following a first head and neck cancer: patterns of association and difficulties of its analysis.

PURPOSE: The diagnosis of a second primary cancer (SPC) is a major concern in the follow-up of survivors of a primary head and neck cancer (HNC), but the anatomic subsites in the head and neck area are close, making it difficult to distinguish a SPC of a recurrence and therefore register it correctly. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from two population-based cancer registries in Catalonia, Spain: the Tarragona Cancer Registry and the Girona Cancer Registry. All patients diagnosed with HNC during the period 1994-2013 were registered and followed-up to collect cases of SPC. We analysed the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and the excess absolute risk (EAR) to determine the risk of second malignancies following a prior HNC. RESULTS: 923 SPC were found in a cohort of 5646 patients diagnosed of a first head and neck cancer. Men had an increased risk of a SPC with a SIR of 2.22 and an EAR of 216.76. Women also had an increased risk with a SIR of 2.02 and an EAR of 95.70. We show the risk for different tumour sites and discuss the difficulties of the analysis. CONCLUSION: The risks of a SPC following a prior HNC in Tarragona and Girona are similar to those previously found in other similar cohorts. It would appear to be advisable to make a revision of the international rules of classification of multiple tumours, grouping the sites of head and neck area with new aetiological criteria to better determine and interpret the risks of SPC obtained in these studies.

Cause-specific mortality after a breast cancer diagnosis: a cohort study of 10,195 women in Girona and Tarragona.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence suggests an excess of long-term mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, second tumours and other causes in patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer (BC). Our aim was to assess this risk of death in a cohort of patients diagnosed with BC in Girona and Tarragona, northeastern Spain. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using data from the cancer registries in these areas, a population-based cohort study was carried out including all the women diagnosed with BC during 1985-2004 and followed up until December 31st 2014 (N = 10,195). The standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for causes other than BC in the cohort at 10 years (periods 1985-1994/1995-2004) and 20 years (period 1985-1994). The impact of competing causes of death in the long-term survival was evaluated through competing risk analysis. RESULTS: The SMRs at 10 and 20 years for all-cause mortality, except BC, were 1.21 and 1.22. The main causes of mortality showing statistically significant SMR at 10 years were other tumours (colon, lung, corpus uteri, ovary, and haematological), diabetes mellitus, diseases of the nervous system, cardiovascular diseases (after BC, the second competing cause of death among patients diagnosed > 69 years) and diseases of the kidney. Globally, the 10-year SMR was higher in the first period. After 20 years of follow-up (1985-1994 cohort), there were 48.5 excess deaths per 10,000 patient-years for causes other than BC. CONCLUSIONS: Women who did not die from BC at 10 or 20 years after the BC diagnosis had 20% higher risk of dying from other causes than women without BC. This excess risk must be clinically considered during 20 years after the BC diagnosis.

Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona-Tarragona 1985-2004)

Background: We provide population-based long-term survival indicators of breast cancer patients by quantifying the observed survival, and the probabilities of death due to breast cancer and to other causes by age and tumor stage at diagnosis. Methods; We included a total of 10,195 female patients diagnosed before 85 years with invasive primary breast cancer in Girona and Tarragona during the periods 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 and followed-up until December 31st 2014. The survival indicators were estimated at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years of follow-up comparing diagnostic periods. Results: Comparing diagnostic periods: I) the probability of death due to other causes did not change; II) the 20-year survival for women diagnosed ≤ 49 years increased 13% (1995-2004 = 68%; 1985-1994:55%), whereas their probability of death due to breast cancer decreased at the same pace (1995-2004 = 29%; 1985-1994 = 42%); III) at 10 years of follow-up, decreases in the probabilities of death due to breast cancer across age groups switched from 11 to 17% resulting in a risk of death reduction of 19% after adjusting by stage. During 1995-2004, the stage-specific 10-year probabilities of death due to breast cancer switched from: 3-6% in stage I, 18-20% in stage II, 34-46% in stage III and surpassed 70% in stage IV beyond 5 years after diagnosis. Conclusions: In our study, women diagnosed with breast cancer had higher long-term probability to die from breast cancer than from other causes. The improvements in treatment and the lead-time bias in detecting cancer in an early stage resulted in a reduction of 19% in the risk of death between diagnostic periods

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Predicting the cancer burden in Catalonia between 2015 and 2025: the challenge of cancer management in the elderly

Background. Developing effective cancer control programmes requires information on the future cancer burden in an ageing population. In our study we predicted the burden of cancer in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025. Methods. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the burden of cancer from 2015 to 2025 using incidence data from the Girona and Tarragona cancer registries and cancer mortality data from the Catalan mortality registry. Using the Bashir-Estève method, we divided the net change in the number of cases between 2015 and 2025 into changes due to population size (S), cancer risk (R) and age (A) distribution. Results. By 2025, there will be 21,743 new cancer cases in men (40% aged > 74 years) and 17,268 in women (37% aged > 74 years). More than 40% of the new cases will be diagnosed among population aged 74 and older in prostate, colorectal, lung, bladder, pancreatic and stomach cancers in men, and in colorectal, pancreatic and bladder cancers and leukaemia in women. During 2015-2025, the number of new diagnoses will increase by 5.5% in men (A + R + S = 18.1% − 13.3% + 0.7% = 5.5%) and 11.9% in women (A + R + S = 12.4% − 1.1% + 0.6% = 11.9%). Overall cancer mortality rates will continue to decrease during 2015-2025. Lung cancer will be the most lethal cancer among men (N = 2705) and women (N = 1174). Conclusions. The increase in the number of cancer cases in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025 will mostly affect the elderly, prompting the need for increased collaboration between geriatricians and oncologists

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Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona-Tarragona 1985-2004).

BACKGROUND: We provide population-based long-term survival indicators of breast cancer patients by quantifying the observed survival, and the probabilities of death due to breast cancer and to other causes by age and tumor stage at diagnosis. METHODS: We included a total of 10,195 female patients diagnosed before 85 years with invasive primary breast cancer in Girona and Tarragona during the periods 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 and followed-up until December 31st 2014. The survival indicators were estimated at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years of follow-up comparing diagnostic periods. RESULTS: Comparing diagnostic periods: I) the probability of death due to other causes did not change; II) the 20-year survival for women diagnosed ≤ 49 years increased 13% (1995-2004 = 68%; 1985-1994:55%), whereas their probability of death due to breast cancer decreased at the same pace (1995-2004 = 29%; 1985-1994 = 42%); III) at 10 years of follow-up, decreases in the probabilities of death due to breast cancer across age groups switched from 11 to 17% resulting in a risk of death reduction of 19% after adjusting by stage. During 1995-2004, the stage-specific 10-year probabilities of death due to breast cancer switched from: 3-6% in stage I, 18-20% in stage II, 34-46% in stage III and surpassed 70% in stage IV beyond 5 years after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, women diagnosed with breast cancer had higher long-term probability to die from breast cancer than from other causes. The improvements in treatment and the lead-time bias in detecting cancer in an early stage resulted in a reduction of 19% in the risk of death between diagnostic periods.

Cancer survival in adult patients in Spain. Results from nine population-based cancer registries

Introduction. With the aim of providing cancer control indicators, this work presents cancer survival in adult (≥15 years) patients in Spain diagnosed during the period 2000-2007 from Spanish cancer registries participating in the EUROCARE project. Methods. Cancer cases from nine Spanish population-based cancer registries were included and analysed as a whole. All primary malignant neoplasms diagnosed in adult patients were eligible for the analysis. Cancer patients were followed until 31 December 2008. For each type of cancer, 1-, 3- and 5-year observed and relative survival were estimated by sex, age and years from diagnosis. Furthermore, age-standardized 5-year relative survival for the period 2000-2007 has been compared with that of the period 1995-1999. Results. Skin melanoma (84.6 95% CI 83.0-86.2), prostate (84.6% 95% CI 83.6-85.6) and thyroid (84.2% CI 95% 82.0-86.6) cancers showed the highest 5-year relative survival, whereas the worst prognosis was observed in pancreatic (6% 95% CI 5.1-7.0) and oesophageal (9.4% 95% CI 7.9-11.1) cancers. Overall, survival is higher in women (58.0%) than in men (48.9%). The absolute difference in relative survival between 2000-2007 and 1995-1999 was positive for all cancers as a whole (+4.8% in men, +1.6% in women) and for most types of tumours. Survival increased significantly for chronic myeloid leukaemia, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and rectum cancer in both sexes, and for acute lymphoid leukaemia, prostate, liver and colon cancers in men and Hodgkin’s lymphoma and breast cancer in women. Survival patterns by age were similar in Europe and Spain. A decline in survival by age was observed in all tumours, being more pronounced for ovarian, corpus uteri, prostate and urinary bladder and less for head and neck and rectum cancers. Conclusion. High variability and differences have been observed in survival among adults in Spain according to the type of cancer diagnosed, from above 84% to below 10%, reflecting high heterogeneity. The differences in prognosis by age, sex and period of diagnosis reveal opportunities for improving cancer care in Spain (AU)

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Predicting the cancer burden in Catalonia between 2015 and 2025: the challenge of cancer management in the elderly.

BACKGROUND: Developing effective cancer control programmes requires information on the future cancer burden in an ageing population. In our study we predicted the burden of cancer in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025. METHODS: Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the burden of cancer from 2015 to 2025 using incidence data from the Girona and Tarragona cancer registries and cancer mortality data from the Catalan mortality registry. Using the Bashir-Estève method, we divided the net change in the number of cases between 2015 and 2025 into changes due to population size (S), cancer risk (R) and age (A) distribution. RESULTS: By 2025, there will be 21,743 new cancer cases in men (40% aged > 74 years) and 17,268 in women (37% aged > 74 years). More than 40% of the new cases will be diagnosed among population aged 74 and older in prostate, colorectal, lung, bladder, pancreatic and stomach cancers in men, and in colorectal, pancreatic and bladder cancers and leukaemia in women. During 2015-2025, the number of new diagnoses will increase by 5.5% in men (A + R + S = 18.1% - 13.3% + 0.7% = 5.5%) and 11.9% in women (A + R + S = 12.4% - 1.1% + 0.6% = 11.9%). Overall cancer mortality rates will continue to decrease during 2015-2025. Lung cancer will be the most lethal cancer among men (N = 2705) and women (N = 1174). CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the number of cancer cases in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025 will mostly affect the elderly, prompting the need for increased collaboration between geriatricians and oncologists.

Cancer survival in adult patients in Spain. Results from nine population-based cancer registries.

INTRODUCTION: With the aim of providing cancer control indicators, this work presents cancer survival in adult (≥15 years) patients in Spain diagnosed during the period 2000-2007 from Spanish cancer registries participating in the EUROCARE project. METHODS: Cancer cases from nine Spanish population-based cancer registries were included and analysed as a whole. All primary malignant neoplasms diagnosed in adult patients were eligible for the analysis. Cancer patients were followed until 31 December 2008. For each type of cancer, 1-, 3- and 5-year observed and relative survival were estimated by sex, age and years from diagnosis. Furthermore, age-standardized 5-year relative survival for the period 2000-2007 has been compared with that of the period 1995-1999. RESULTS: Skin melanoma (84.6 95% CI 83.0-86.2), prostate (84.6% 95% CI 83.6-85.6) and thyroid (84.2% CI 95% 82.0-86.6) cancers showed the highest 5-year relative survival, whereas the worst prognosis was observed in pancreatic (6% 95% CI 5.1-7.0) and oesophageal (9.4% 95% CI 7.9-11.1) cancers. Overall, survival is higher in women (58.0%) than in men (48.9%). The absolute difference in relative survival between 2000-2007 and 1995-1999 was positive for all cancers as a whole (+4.8% in men, +1.6% in women) and for most types of tumours. Survival increased significantly for chronic myeloid leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and rectum cancer in both sexes, and for acute lymphoid leukaemia, prostate, liver and colon cancers in men and Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer in women. Survival patterns by age were similar in Europe and Spain. A decline in survival by age was observed in all tumours, being more pronounced for ovarian, corpus uteri, prostate and urinary bladder and less for head and neck and rectum cancers. CONCLUSION: High variability and differences have been observed in survival among adults in Spain according to the type of cancer diagnosed, from above 84% to below 10%, reflecting high heterogeneity. The differences in prognosis by age, sex and period of diagnosis reveal opportunities for improving cancer care in Spain.

Cancer incidence in Spain, 2015

Purpose. Periodic cancer incidence estimates of Spain from all existing population-based cancer registries at any given time are required. The objective of this study was to present the current situation of cancer incidence in Spain. Methods. The Spanish Network of Cancer Registries (REDECAN) estimated the numbers of new cancer cases occurred in Spain in 2015 by applying the incidence-mortality ratios method. In the calculus, incidence data from population-based cancer registries and mortality data of all Spain were used. Results. In 2015, nearly a quarter of a million new invasive cancer cases were diagnosed in Spain, almost 149,000 in men (60.0%) and 99,000 in women. Globally, the five most common cancers were those of colon-rectum, prostate, lung, breast and urinary bladder. By gender, the four most common cancers in men were those of prostate (22.4%), colon-rectum (16.6%), lung (15.1%) and urinary bladder (11.7%). In women, the most common ones were those of breast (28.0%), colon-rectum (16.9%), corpus uteri (6.2%) and lung (6.0%). In recent years, cancer incidence in men seems to have stabilized due to the fact that the decrease in tobacco-related cancers compensates for the increase in other types of cancer like those of colon and prostate. In women, despite the stabilization of breast cancer incidence, increased incidence is due, above all, to the rise of colorectal and tobacco-related cancers. Conclusion. To reduce these incident cancer cases, improvement of smoking control policies and extension of colorectal cancer screening should be the two priorities in cancer prevention for the next years (AU)

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Cancer incidence in Spain, 2015.

PURPOSE: Periodic cancer incidence estimates of Spain from all existing population-based cancer registries at any given time are required. The objective of this study was to present the current situation of cancer incidence in Spain. METHODS: The Spanish Network of Cancer Registries (REDECAN) estimated the numbers of new cancer cases occurred in Spain in 2015 by applying the incidence-mortality ratios method. In the calculus, incidence data from population-based cancer registries and mortality data of all Spain were used. RESULTS: In 2015, nearly a quarter of a million new invasive cancer cases were diagnosed in Spain, almost 149,000 in men (60.0%) and 99,000 in women. Globally, the five most common cancers were those of colon-rectum, prostate, lung, breast and urinary bladder. By gender, the four most common cancers in men were those of prostate (22.4%), colon-rectum (16.6%), lung (15.1%) and urinary bladder (11.7%). In women, the most common ones were those of breast (28.0%), colon-rectum (16.9%), corpus uteri (6.2%) and lung (6.0%). In recent years, cancer incidence in men seems to have stabilized due to the fact that the decrease in tobacco-related cancers compensates for the increase in other types of cancer like those of colon and prostate. In women, despite the stabilization of breast cancer incidence, increased incidence is due, above all, to the rise of colorectal and tobacco-related cancers. CONCLUSION: To reduce these incident cancer cases, improvement of smoking control policies and extension of colorectal cancer screening should be the two priorities in cancer prevention for the next years.

Cancer incidence and mortality projections up to 2020 in Catalonia by means of Bayesian models

PURPOSE: To predict the burden of cancer in Catalonia by 2020 assessing changes in demography and cancer risk during 2010-2020. ETHODS/PATIENTS: Data were obtained from Tarragona and Girona cancer registries and Catalan mortality registry. Population age distribution was obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. Predicted cases in Catalonia were estimated through autoregressive Bayesian age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: There will be diagnosed 26,455 incident cases among men and 18,345 among women during 2020, which means an increase of 22.5 and 24.5 % comparing with the cancer incidence figures of 2010. In men, the increase of cases (22.5 %) can be partitioned in three components: 12 % due to ageing, 8 % due to increase in population size and 2 % due to cancer risk. In women, the role of each component was 9, 8 and 8 %, respectively. The increased risk is mainly expected to be observed in tobacco-related tumours among women and in colorectal and liver cancers among men. During 2010-2020 a mortality decline is expected in both sexes. CONCLUSION: The expected increase of cancer incidence, mainly due to tobacco-related tumours in women and colorectal in men, reinforces the need to strengthen smoking prevention and the expansion of early detection of colorectal cancer in Catalonia (AU)

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Temporal trends of incidence and survival of sarcoma of digestive tract including Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumours (GIST) in two areas of the north-east of Spain in the period 1981-2005: a population-based study

INTRODUCTION: The diagnostic approach of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumours (GIST) was established in 2002. Before this, GIST had been classified with a wide range of histological terms. This fact and the consideration of potential malignity of all these tumours led to a false perception of an increasing incidence. PURPOSE: This study aimed at evaluating the accuracy in registration of sarcoma of digestive tract and GIST and to elucidate the trends of incidence and survival of those. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from two population-based cancer registries in Spain. In the Girona's Cancer Registry we previously reclassified all sarcoma of digestive tract performing c-kit to confirm GIST and analysed the time period 1994-2005. In Tarragona's Cancer Registry, where we analysed the time period 1981-2005, this reclassification was not done. RESULTS: We obtained a significant increasing trend in incidence of all sarcoma of digestive tract in the Tarragona Cancer Registry database, with an annual per cent of change of 3.87 but a non-statistically significant trend in incidence in the Girona Cancer Registry database. The incidence of GIST in Girona Cancer Registry was 1.24 cases/100,000 inhabitants/year. Survival rates did not change in time and was high in less aggressive GIST. The 5-year relative survival for low, intermediate and high risk of malignant behaviour GIST groups were, respectively, 80.5, 85.6 and 64.6 %. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the incidence of GIST could be explained by the improvement in their diagnosis and registration. The survival of low and intermediate risk of malignant behaviour is high and close to normal population survival (AU)

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Cancer incidence and mortality projections up to 2020 in Catalonia by means of Bayesian models.

PURPOSE: To predict the burden of cancer in Catalonia by 2020 assessing changes in demography and cancer risk during 2010-2020. METHODS/PATIENTS: Data were obtained from Tarragona and Girona cancer registries and Catalan mortality registry. Population age distribution was obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. Predicted cases in Catalonia were estimated through autoregressive Bayesian age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: There will be diagnosed 26,455 incident cases among men and 18,345 among women during 2020, which means an increase of 22.5 and 24.5 % comparing with the cancer incidence figures of 2010. In men, the increase of cases (22.5 %) can be partitioned in three components: 12 % due to ageing, 8 % due to increase in population size and 2 % due to cancer risk. In women, the role of each component was 9, 8 and 8 %, respectively. The increased risk is mainly expected to be observed in tobacco-related tumours among women and in colorectal and liver cancers among men. During 2010-2020 a mortality decline is expected in both sexes. CONCLUSION: The expected increase of cancer incidence, mainly due to tobacco-related tumours in women and colorectal in men, reinforces the need to strengthen smoking prevention and the expansion of early detection of colorectal cancer in Catalonia.

Temporal trends of incidence and survival of sarcoma of digestive tract including Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumours (GIST) in two areas of the north-east of Spain in the period 1981-2005: a population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: The diagnostic approach of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumours (GIST) was established in 2002. Before this, GIST had been classified with a wide range of histological terms. This fact and the consideration of potential malignity of all these tumours led to a false perception of an increasing incidence. PURPOSE: This study aimed at evaluating the accuracy in registration of sarcoma of digestive tract and GIST and to elucidate the trends of incidence and survival of those. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from two population-based cancer registries in Spain. In the Girona's Cancer Registry we previously reclassified all sarcoma of digestive tract performing c-kit to confirm GIST and analysed the time period 1994-2005. In Tarragona's Cancer Registry, where we analysed the time period 1981-2005, this reclassification was not done. RESULTS: We obtained a significant increasing trend in incidence of all sarcoma of digestive tract in the Tarragona Cancer Registry database, with an annual per cent of change of 3.87 but a non-statistically significant trend in incidence in the Girona Cancer Registry database. The incidence of GIST in Girona Cancer Registry was 1.24 cases/100,000 inhabitants/year. Survival rates did not change in time and was high in less aggressive GIST. The 5-year relative survival for low, intermediate and high risk of malignant behaviour GIST groups were, respectively, 80.5, 85.6 and 64.6 %. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the incidence of GIST could be explained by the improvement in their diagnosis and registration. The survival of low and intermediate risk of malignant behaviour is high and close to normal population survival.

Tobacco-related tumours of the lung, bladder and larynx: changes in Spain.

The association between tobacco use and lung cancer and other tumours has been confirmed by a large number of studies. In Spain, the prevalence of smoking has been declining since 1978. This study describes lung, bladder and laryngeal cancer mortality and incidence rates and their trends in Spain. Mortality data were furnished by the National Statistics Institute (2001-07) and incidence data by population-based cancer registries (1975-2004). Changes in rates were calculated using Poisson regression models, which enable trend changes to be estimated. In the case of lung cancer, mortality rates decreased among men [annual percentage change (APC) -1.3%] though not among women (APC 3.5%), whereas incidence rates increased in both sexes, overall and adjusted for registry, by 0.75% among men and 3.2% among women. Bladder cancer mortality rates decreased among men (APC -1.2%) and women (APC -0.8%), yet incidence rates increased across the sexes. While laryngeal cancer mortality rates decreased among men (APC -5.5%) and women (APC -0.03%) alike, incidence rates decreased (-1.28%) among men but not among women (3.95%). A decrease in male versus female mortality due to tobacco-related tumours is evident in Spain. Incidence rates are beginning to reflect the progressive cessation of smoking that has been observed among men rather than women.

[Trends in cancer incidence in Catalonia, 1985-2002]. / Evolución de la incidencia del cáncer en Cataluña, 1985-2002.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the secular trend of cancer incidence in Catalonia and to compare it with that observed in European regions. MATERIAL AND METHOD: Using data from the Tarragona and Gerona cancer registries, the number of cases, adjusted rates, and the annual percentages of change in cancer incidence in Catalonia for the period 1985-2002 were estimated. Cancer incidence trends in Catalonia, Spain, and four European regions were compared using variations in the adjusted rates between the periods 1993-1997 and 1998-2002. RESULTS: The number of invasive cancers increased from 15,773 in 1985 to 30,755 in 2002. The adjusted incidence rate showed an annual increase of 2.64% in males and of 1.81% in females. Almost all tumoral types showed an increasing trend. The most frequent malignant tumors in males were prostate, lung, colon and rectum, and urinary bladder tumors, showing increases of 8.74%, 1.67%, 3.47% and 4.32% respectively. The most frequent tumors in females were breast, colon and rectum and corpus uterine tumors, showing increases of 2.45%, 1.67% and 0.78%, respectively. In males, Catalonia showed lower annual incidence rates than the remaining European regions in 1985 and higher rates in 2002. In females, rates remained lower than in other European regions. CONCLUSIONS: In Catalonia, the number of incident cancers increased because of population growth and aging, greater exposure to risk factors and, for some cancer types, higher detection rates. Overall cancer incidence trends followed a similar pattern to those of southern Europe, with higher increases than in the remaining European regions, especially in males.

[Predictions of cancer incidence and mortality in Catalonia to 2015 by means of Bayesian models]. / Proyección de la incidencia y la mortalidad del cáncer en Cataluña hasta el año 2015 mediante un modelo bayesiano.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To perform cancer incidence and mortality projections in Catalonia for the period 2005-2019. To assess the projected increase in the incidence in 2015 compared with that in 2005, and to determine whether this increase is attributable to changes in risk or in demographics. POPULATION AND METHOD: Bayesian age-period-cohort models were fitted to age-specific rates for 1985-2004 to obtain the expected number of cases for the 5-year periods 2005-2009, 2010-2014 and 2015- 2019. Annual cases were estimated through a polynomial interpolation model. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Tarrragona and Gerona cancer registries, while population pyramids for the period 1985-2019 were obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. RESULTS: In Catalonia, 27,438 cancer cases will be diagnosed among men and 19,986 among women in 2015, representing an increase in the number of cases diagnosed of 31% and 34%, respectively, when compared with those diagnosed in 2005 (20,999 and 14,141, respectively). In men, the increases attributable to risk, aging and demographic changes are 10%, 14% and 7%, respectively, whereas in women these changes are 6%, 13% and 15%. In the next decade, cancer mortality is expected to stabilize in men and to continue to decrease in women. Major increases in cancer incidence and mortality are expected among old age groups. CONCLUSIONS: The present study highlights the need to reorganize the resources and infrastructures required for cancer control and care, taking into account the predicted burden of oncology patients.