Epidemic Models for COVID-19 during the First Wave from February to May 2020: a Methodological Review

We review epidemiological models for the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic during the early months of the outbreak: from February to May 2020. The aim is to propose a methodological review that highlights the following characteristics: (i) the epidemic propagation models, (ii) the modeling of intervention strategies, (iii) the models and estimation procedures of the epidemic parameters and (iv) the characteristics of the data used. We finally selected 80 articles from open access databases based on criteria such as the theoretical background, the reproducibility, the incorporation of interventions strategies, etc. It mainly resulted to phenomenological, compartmental and individual-level models. A digital companion including an online sheet, a Kibana interface and a markdown document is proposed. Finally, this work provides an opportunity to witness how the scientific community reacted to this unique situation.

Seroprevalence of Rift Valley fever in cattle of smallholder farmers in Kwilu Province in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne disease caused by RVF virus (RVFV) that causes abortions and high mortalities in livestock and is also associated with acute and fatal disease in humans. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), information on the epidemiology of RVF is limited, particularly among cattle reared by smallholder farmers. This cross-sectional study was conducted to investigate the seroprevalence of RVF in cattle raised by smallholder farmers in Kwilu Province of DRC, which has not yet reported an RVF epidemic. A total of 677 cattle sera were collected from four territories and tested for anti-RVFV antibodies using immunofluorescent assay and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The overall seroprevalence of anti-RVFV IgG was 6.5% (44/677) (95% CI 4.81-8.7). There was a statistically significant difference in the seroprevalence among the territories (χ2 = 28.79, p < 0.001). Territory seroprevalences were as follows: Idiofa 14.08% (95% CI 9.78-19.76), Bulungu 4.14% (95% CI 1.83-8.68), Gungu 3.21% (95% CI 1.41-6.78), and Masi-Manimba 1.19% (95% CI 0.06-7.37). Seroprevalence differed significantly among age categories (p = 0.0017) and ecosystem (p < 0.001). The seroprevalence of animals aged between 1 and 2 years was 20.0% (95% CI 8.4-39.13) and was higher than group aged <1 year, between 2 and 3 years, and > 3 years. Forest area (18.92% (95% CI 12.35-27.7)) had higher seropositivity than savannah area (4.06% (95% CI 2.65-6.12)). Sex difference was not significant (χ2 = 0.14, p = 0.704). These findings indicate that cattle in Kwilu Province had been exposed to RVFV, which represents a significant risk for both livestock and human health.