A novel system based on artificial intelligence for predicting blastocyst viability and visualizing the explanation.

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to invent and evaluate the novel artificial intelligence (AI) system named Fertility image Testing Through Embryo (FiTTE) for predicting blastocyst viability and visualizing the explanations via gradient-based localization. Methods: The authors retrospectively analyzed 19 342 static blastocyst images with related inspection histories from 9961 infertile patients who underwent in vitro fertilization. Among these data, 17 984 cycles of single-blastocyst transfer were used for training, and data from 1358 cycles were used for testing purposes. Results: The prediction accuracy for clinical pregnancy achieved by a control model using conventional Gardner scoring system was 59.8%, and area under the curve (AUC) was 0.62. FiTTE improved the prediction accuracy by using blastocyst images to 62.7% and AUC of 0.68. Additionally, the accuracy achieved by an ensemble model using image plus clinical data was 65.2% and AUC was 0.71, representing an improvement in prediction accuracy. The visualization algorithm showed brighter colors with blastocysts that resulted in clinical pregnancy. Conclusions: The authors invented the novel AI system, FiTTE, which could provide more precise prediction of the probability of clinical pregnancy using blastocyst images secondary to single embryo transfer than the conventional Gardner scoring assessments. FiTTE could also provide explanation of AI prediction using colored blastocyst images.

Establishment of a predictive model for GVHD-free, relapse-free survival after allogeneic HSCT using ensemble learning.

Graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival (GRFS) is a useful composite end point that measures survival without relapse or significant morbidity after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). We aimed to develop a novel analytical method that appropriately handles right-censored data and competing risks to understand the risk for GRFS and each component of GRFS. This study was a retrospective data-mining study on a cohort of 2207 adult patients who underwent their first allo-HSCT within the Kyoto Stem Cell Transplantation Group, a multi-institutional joint research group of 17 transplantation centers in Japan. The primary end point was GRFS. A stacked ensemble of Cox Proportional Hazard (Cox-PH) regression and 7 machine-learning algorithms was applied to develop a prediction model. The median age for the patients was 48 years. For GRFS, the stacked ensemble model achieved better predictive accuracy evaluated by C-index than other state-of-the-art competing risk models (ensemble model: 0.670; Cox-PH: 0.668; Random Survival Forest: 0.660; Dynamic DeepHit: 0.646). The probability of GRFS after 2 years was 30.54% for the high-risk group and 40.69% for the low-risk group (hazard ratio compared with the low-risk group: 2.127; 95% CI, 1.19-3.80). We developed a novel predictive model for survival analysis that showed superior risk stratification to existing methods using a stacked ensemble of multiple machine-learning algorithms.