A new alcohol-related traffic law, a further reduction in traffic fatalities? Analyzing the case of Turkey.

BACKGROUND: In June 2013, an alcohol-related traffic law took effect in Turkey. The law 6487 introduced administrative fines for not respecting blood alcohol concentration limits, health warning messages on alcohol containers (bottles, cans), and prohibited the sale of alcohol beverages in retail facilities between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m.. This article examines how this law is associated with traffic fatality variation. METHODS: Data from the Turkish Statistical Institute for the 2008-2019 period were analyzed. Outcomes were traffic fatality rates per 100,000 population and 10,000 motor vehicles. Exposure variable was the presence of law 6487. Alcohol, tobacco, and related beverages' household expenditure, unemployment rate, number of health professionals, number of crashes, and lags of the outcomes represented control variables. A time-series cross-regional fixed effect model was applied. RESULTS: Empirical estimates suggest that the law 6487 was associated with a reduction of 15% (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 0.85, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 082, 0.94) in the traffic fatality per population rate and with a reduction of 14% (IRR: 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.92) in the traffic fatality per motor-vehicle rate. After 6 years of its implementation, this intervention was associated with an absolute reduction of 1519 (95% reduction interval: 1177, 1810) traffic fatalities. CONCLUSIONS: Our research emphasizes that legislation with direct and indirect measures targeting driving under the influence of alcohol (DUIA) may be related to traffic fatalities reduction. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: This finding has important implications for policy and future research in contexts in which alcohol consumption is low such is in Turkey. Future research should seek to identify mechanisms that explain how laws are ultimately associated with DUIA variation.

Impact of trends and gender disparity in obesity on future type 2 diabetes in Turkey: a mathematical modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Using a previously developed and validated mathematical model, we predicted future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and major modifiable risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity and smoking) stratified by age and sex in Turkey up to the year 2050. METHODS: Our deterministic compartmental model fitted nationally representative demographic and risk factor data simultaneously for Turkish adults (aged 20-79) between 1997 and 2017, then estimated future trends. Our novel approach explored the impact of future obesity trends on these projections, specifically modelling (1) a gradual fall in obesity in women after the year 2020 until it equalled the age-specific levels seen in men and (2) cessation of the rise in obesity after 2020. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence is projected to rise from an estimated 14.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 12.8% to 16.0%) in 2020 to 18.4% (95% UI 16.9% to 20.9%) by 2050; 19.7% in women and 17.2% in men by 2050; reflecting high levels of obesity (39.7% for women and 22.0% for men in 2050). Overall, T2DM prevalence could be reduced by about 4% if obesity stopped rising after 2020 or by 12% (22% in women) if obesity prevalence among women could be lowered to equal that of men. The higher age-specific obesity prevalence among women resulted in 2 076 040 additional women developing T2DM by the year 2050. CONCLUSION: T2DM is common in Turkey and will remain so. Interventions and policies targeting the high burden of obesity (and low physical activity levels), particularly in women, could significantly impact future disease burdens.