Using piecewise regression to identify biological phenomena in biotelemetry datasets.

Technological advances in the field of animal tracking have greatly expanded the potential to remotely monitor animals, opening the door to exploring how animals shift their behaviour over time or respond to external stimuli. A wide variety of animal-borne sensors can provide information on an animal's location, movement characteristics, external environmental conditions and internal physiological status. Here, we demonstrate how piecewise regression can be used to identify the presence and timing of potential shifts in a variety of biological responses using multiple biotelemetry data streams. Different biological latent states can be inferred by partitioning a time-series into multiple segments based on changes in modelled responses (e.g. their mean, variance, trend, degree of autocorrelation) and specifying a unique model structure for each interval. We provide six example applications highlighting a variety of taxonomic species, data streams, timescales and biological phenomena. These examples include a short-term behavioural response (flee and return) by a trumpeter swan Cygnus buccinator following a GPS collar deployment; remote identification of parturition based on movements by a pregnant moose Alces alces; a physiological response (spike in heart-rate) in a black bear Ursus americanus to a stressful stimulus (presence of a drone); a mortality event of a trumpeter swan signalled by changes in collar temperature and overall dynamic body acceleration; an unsupervised method for identifying the onset, return, duration and staging use of sandhill crane Antigone canadensis migration; and estimation of the transition between incubation and brood-rearing (i.e. hatching) for a breeding trumpeter swan. We implement analyses using the mcp package in R, which provides functionality for specifying and fitting a wide variety of user-defined model structures in a Bayesian framework and methods for assessing and comparing models using information criteria and cross-validation measures. These simple modelling approaches are accessible to a wide audience and offer a straightforward means of assessing a variety of biologically relevant changes in animal behaviour.

Mapping the complex causal mechanisms of drinking and driving behaviors among adolescents and young adults.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of motor vehicle crash fatalities involving alcohol-impaired drivers declined substantially between 1982 and 1997, but progress stopped after 1997. The systemic complexity of alcohol-impaired driving contributes to the persistence of this problem. This study aims to identify and map key feedback mechanisms that affect alcohol-impaired driving among adolescents and young adults in the U.S. METHODS: We apply the system dynamics approach to the problem of alcohol-impaired driving and bring a feedback perspective for understanding drivers and inhibitors of the problem. The causal loop diagram (i.e., map of dynamic hypotheses about the structure of the system producing observed behaviors over time) developed in this study is based on the output of two group model building sessions conducted with multidisciplinary subject-matter experts bolstered with extensive literature review. RESULTS: The causal loop diagram depicts diverse influences on youth impaired driving including parents, peers, policies, law enforcement, and the alcohol industry. Embedded in these feedback loops are the physical flow of youth between the categories of abstainers, drinkers who do not drive after drinking, and drinkers who drive after drinking. We identify key inertial factors, discuss how delay and feedback processes affect observed behaviors over time, and suggest strategies to reduce youth impaired driving. CONCLUSION: This review presents the first causal loop diagram of alcohol-impaired driving among adolescents and it is a vital first step toward quantitative simulation modeling of the problem. Through continued research, this model could provide a powerful tool for understanding the systemic complexity of impaired driving among adolescents, and identifying effective prevention practices and policies to reduce youth impaired driving.

Tallgrass prairie wildlife exposure to spray drift from commonly used soybean insecticides in Midwestern USA.

Insecticides are widely used in the Midwestern USA to combat soybean aphids (Aphis glycines), a globally important crop pest. Broad-spectrum foliar insecticides such as chlorpyrifos, lambda-cyhalothrin, and bifenthrin (hereafter, "target insecticides") are toxic to wildlife in laboratory settings; however, little information exists regarding drift and deposition of these insecticides in fragmented tallgrass prairie grasslands such as those in Minnesota, USA. To address this information gap, target insecticide spray drift and deposition were measured on passive samplers and arthropods in grasslands adjacent to crop fields in Minnesota. Samples were collected at focal soybean field sites immediately following target insecticide application and at reference corn field sites without target insecticide application. Target insecticides were detected 400 m into grasslands at both focal and reference sites. Residues of chlorpyrifos, an insecticide especially toxic to pollinators and birds, were measured above the contact lethal dose (LD50) for honey bees (Apis mellifera) up to 25 m from field edges in adjacent grasslands. Chlorpyrifos residues on arthropods were below the acute oral LD50 for several common farmland bird species but were above the level shown to impair migratory orientation in white-crowed sparrows (Zonotrichia leucophrys). Deposition of target insecticides on passive samplers was inversely associated with distance from field edge and percent canopy cover of grassland vegetation, and positively associated with samplers placed at mid-canopy compared to ground level. Target insecticide deposition on arthropods had an inverse relationship with vertical vegetation density and was positively associated with maximum height of vegetation. Tallgrass prairie with cover ≥25 m from row crop edges may provide wildlife habitat with lower exposure to foliar application insecticides. Prairie management regimes that increase percent canopy cover and density of vegetation may also reduce exposure of wildlife to these insecticides.

Recovery from work: testing the effects of chronic internal and external workload on health and well-being.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine the effects of reduced recovery opportunities on health, associated with chronic internal workload (ie, during work) and external workload (ie, following work). METHODS: Data from two consecutive surveys (2013 and 2016) from the Norwegian Living Conditions Survey on Work Environment were used. To assess a dose-response association between workload and health, self-reported ratings of internal workload (ie, having too much to do and skipping lunch breaks during work) and external workload (ie, using mobile technology for work-related issues during leisure time) over the two time periods were divided into tertile groups representing low, medium and high workload. Anxiety, depression, physiological and psychological fatigue and sleep were assessed as outcome symptoms. RESULTS: Chronic medium levels of internal workload were associated with psychological fatigue (OR=2.84, 95% CI 1.75 to 4.62) and physical fatigue (OR=1.85, 95% CI 1.31 to 2.63), and high internal workload was associated with psychological fatigue (OR=7.24, 95% CI 4.59 to 11.40), physical fatigue (OR=4.23, 95% CI 3.06 to 5.83) and sleep problems (OR=1.81, 95% CI 1.07 to 3.05). Chronic external high workload was only associated with psychological fatigue (OR=1.67, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.22) and with physical fatigue problems (OR=1.47, 95% CI,1.09-1.98) when the data were adjusted for age, gender, education level, job autonomy and occupational status. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasises that individuals who chronically experience high workload are at an increased risk for reporting psychological and physical fatigue, and sleep problems.

Cholecystokinin-1 receptor agonist induced pathological findings in the exocrine pancreas of non-human primates.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cholecystokinin (CCK) may potentially be used to treat obesity. However, it is well-known to induce acute pancreatitis and pancreas neoplasia in rodents, but not in primates. Here we report the nonclinical safety profile of a long-acting CCK-1 receptor (CCK-1R) agonist, NN9056, in rats and monkeys to support a First-in-Man clinical trial with NN9056. METHODS: Thirteen-week toxicological studies were conducted in rats and non-human primates followed by histopathological evaluation of affected tissues. NN9056 was characterised in vitro, and CCK-1R expression was assessed by in situ hybridization in cynomolgus monkey and human pancreas tissues. RESULTS: Affinity and potency of NN9056 was comparable to native sulphated CCK-8 (CCK-8) across species on the CCK-1R while it had no effect on the CCK-2 receptor (CCK-2R). In situ hybridization demonstrated abundant expression of CCK-1Rs in the exocrine pancreas of the rat. In contrast, it was only discreetly expressed on pancreatic acinar cells in the periphery of scattered lobules in monkeys. A similar expression pattern was observed in human pancreas. 13-weeks daily dosing with NN9056 produced the expected pancreatic pathological findings in rats. In monkeys, NN9056 increased pancreas weight and induced histopathological changes despite the low expression level of CCK-1Rs. CONCLUSION: Surprisingly, chronic CCK-1R activation constitutes a risk for pancreatitis and trophic actions on the exocrine pancreas in monkeys. Since similar CCK-1R expression patterns were found in pancreas of monkeys and humans this risk is likely translatable to humans and clinical development of NN9056 was therefore halted.

Mitigating gender bias in student evaluations of teaching.

Student evaluations of teaching are widely believed to contain gender bias. In this study, we conduct a randomized experiment with the student evaluations of teaching in four classes with large enrollments, two taught by male instructors and two taught by female instructors. In each of the courses, students were randomly assigned to either receive the standard evaluation instrument or the same instrument with language intended to reduce gender bias. Students in the anti-bias language condition had significantly higher rankings of female instructors than students in the standard treatment. There were no differences between treatment groups for male instructors. These results indicate that a relatively simple intervention in language can potentially mitigate gender bias in student evaluation of teaching.

Correction: Evaluating outcomes of management targeting the recovery of a migratory songbird of conservation concern.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.7717/peerj.4319.].

Population trends in Vermivora warblers are linked to strong migratory connectivity.

Migratory species can experience limiting factors at different locations and during different periods of their annual cycle. In migratory birds, these factors may even occur in different hemispheres. Therefore, identifying the distribution of populations throughout their annual cycle (i.e., migratory connectivity) can reveal the complex ecological and evolutionary relationships that link species and ecosystems across the globe and illuminate where and how limiting factors influence population trends. A growing body of literature continues to identify species that exhibit weak connectivity wherein individuals from distinct breeding areas co-occur during the nonbreeding period. A detailed account of a broadly distributed species exhibiting strong migratory connectivity in which nonbreeding isolation of populations is associated with differential population trends remains undescribed. Here, we present a range-wide assessment of the nonbreeding distribution and migratory connectivity of two broadly dispersed Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbirds. We used geolocators to track the movements of 70 Vermivora warblers from sites spanning their breeding distribution in eastern North America and identified links between breeding populations and nonbreeding areas. Unlike blue-winged warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera), breeding populations of golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) exhibited strong migratory connectivity, which was associated with historical trends in breeding populations: stable for populations that winter in Central America and declining for those that winter in northern South America.

Response to Lisovski et al.

Lisovski et al.[1] describe the widely recognized limitations of light-level geolocator data for identifying short-distance latitudinal movements, recommend that caution be used when interpreting such data, intimated that we did not use such caution and argued that environmental shading likely explained the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) movements described in our 2015 report [2]. Lisovski et al.[1] conclude that the bird movements we reported could not be disentangled from estimation error in stationary animals caused by environmental shading. We argue that, to the contrary, these hypotheses can easily be disentangled because the premise that environmental shading caused synchronous and parallel error among geolocators is false. With their assertion that our location estimates could be biased by >3,500 km on a day with no observable local sources of shading, Lisovski et al.[1] have taken a position of incredulity toward all geolocator-based animal movement data published to date.

Evaluating outcomes of management targeting the recovery of a migratory songbird of conservation concern.

BACKGROUND: Assessing outcomes of habitat management is critical for informing and adapting conservation plans. From 2013-2019, a multi-stage management initiative, led by the American Bird Conservancy (ABC), aims to create >25,000 ha of shrubland and early-successional vegetation to benefit Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) in managed forested landscapes of the western Great Lakes region. We studied a dense breeding population of Golden-winged Warblers at Rice Lake National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in Minnesota, USA, where ABC initiative management was implemented to benefit the species. METHODS: We monitored abundance before (2011-2014) and after (2015-2016) management, and we estimated full-season productivity (i.e., young recruited into the fall population) from predictive, spatially explicit models, informed by nest and fledgling survival data collected at sites in the western Great Lakes region, including Rice Lake NWR, during 2011 and 2012. Then, using biologically informed models of bird response to observed and predicted vegetation succession, we estimated the cumulative change in population recruitment over various scenarios of vegetation succession and demographic response. RESULTS: We observed an 32% decline in abundance of breeding pairs and estimated a 27% decline in per-pair full-season productivity following management, compared to no change in a nearby control site. In models that ranged from highly optimistic to progressively more realistic scenarios, we estimated a net loss of 72-460 juvenile Golden-winged Warblers produced from the managed site in the 10-20 years following management. Even if our well-informed and locally validated productivity models produced erroneous estimates and the management resulted in only a temporary reduction in abundance (i.e., no change in productivity), our forecast models still predicted a net loss of 137-260 juvenile Golden-winged Warblers from the managed area over the same time frame. CONCLUSIONS: Our study site represents only a small portion of a massive management initiative; however, the management at our site was conducted in accordance with the initiative's management plans, the resulting vegetation structure is consistent with that of other areas managed under the initiative, and those responsible for the initiative have described the management at our study site as successful Golden-winged Warbler management. Our assessment demonstrates that, at least for the only site for which pre- and post-management data on Golden-winged Warblers exist, the ABC management initiative is having a substantial and likely enduring negative impact on the species it purports to benefit. We suggest that incorporating region-specific, empirical information about Golden-winged Warbler-habitat relations into habitat management efforts would increase the likelihood of a positive response by Golden-winged Warblers.

Fast Sampling, Analyses and Chemometrics for Plant Breeding: Bitter Acids, Xanthohumol and Terpenes in Lupulin Glands of Hops (Humulus lupulus).

INTRODUCTION: The valuable secondary metabolites in hops (bitter acids, xanthohumol, volatile monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes) are sequestered in lupulin glands (extracellular trichomes) which can be collected and analysed with little or no sample preparation. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether high throughput screening of lupulin glands composition, by fast analyses and chemometrics, could be used for breeder selection of hops with key flavour attributes. METHODS: Lupulin glands from 139 plants (39 cultivars/advanced selections) were analysed by Raman and 1 H NMR spectroscopy, and head-space solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) GC-FID. The digital X,Y-data were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA) and the results compared with conventional analyses of extracts of whole hops from the same plants. Quantitative 1 H NMR analyses were also done for the bitter acids. RESULTS: Raman spectroscopy rapidly identified hops cultivars with high xanthohumol concentrations and high α:ß bitter acid ratios. 1 H NMR spectroscopy was slower, requiring a solvent extraction, but distinguished cultivars by cohumulone content as well as α:ß acid ratios. HS-SPME-GC rapidly distinguished aroma hops with high myrcene and farnesene contents, and pinpointed a novel selection with unusual sesquiterpenes. The quantitative NMR analyses showed correlations between bitter acid concentrations related to biosynthetic pathways. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of lupulin glands gave reliable results for the main quality indicators used by hops breeders, potentially avoiding harvesting, drying and solvent extracting whole hops. PCA of digital X,Y-data rapidly discriminated different hops chemotypes, and highlighted plants with potential for new flavourcultivars. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Third-order terahertz response of gapped, nearly-metallic armchair graphene nanoribbons.

We use time dependent perturbation theory to study the terahertz nonlinear response of gapped intrinsic and extrinsic nearly-metallic armchair graphene nanoribbons of finite length under an applied electric field. Generally, the nonlinear conductances exhibit contributions due to single-photon, two-photon, and three-photon processes. The interference between each of these processes results in remarkably complex behavior for the third-order conductances, including quantum dot signatures that should be measurable with a relatively simple experimental configuration. Notably, we observe sharp resonances in the isotropic third-order response due to the Van Hove singularities in the density of states at one-, two-, and three-photon resonances. However, these resonances are absent in the anisotropic third-order response; a result of the overall symmetry of the system.

Multi time-step wavefront reconstruction for tomographic adaptive-optics systems.

In tomographic adaptive-optics (AO) systems, errors due to tomographic wavefront reconstruction limit the performance and angular size of the scientific field of view (FoV), where AO correction is effective. We propose a multi time-step tomographic wavefront reconstruction method to reduce the tomographic error by using measurements from both the current and previous time steps simultaneously. We further outline the method to feed the reconstructor with both wind speed and direction of each turbulence layer. An end-to-end numerical simulation, assuming a multi-object AO (MOAO) system on a 30 m aperture telescope, shows that the multi time-step reconstruction increases the Strehl ratio (SR) over a scientific FoV of 10 arc min in diameter by a factor of 1.5-1.8 when compared to the classical tomographic reconstructor, depending on the guide star asterism and with perfect knowledge of wind speeds and directions. We also evaluate the multi time-step reconstruction method and the wind estimation method on the RAVEN demonstrator under laboratory setting conditions. The wind speeds and directions at multiple atmospheric layers are measured successfully in the laboratory experiment by our wind estimation method with errors below 2 ms-1. With these wind estimates, the multi time-step reconstructor increases the SR value by a factor of 1.2-1.5, which is consistent with a prediction from the end-to-end numerical simulation.

Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality.

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect vital rates and population-level processes, and understanding these factors is paramount to devising successful management plans for wildlife species. For example, birds time migration in response, in part, to local and broadscale climate fluctuations to initiate breeding upon arrival to nesting territories, and prolonged inclement weather early in the breeding season can inhibit egg-laying and reduce productivity. Also, density-dependent regulation occurs in raptor populations, as territory size is related to resource availability. Arctic Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius; hereafter Arctic peregrine) have a limited and northern breeding distribution, including the Colville River Special Area (CRSA) in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, USA. We quantified influences of climate, topography, nest productivity, prey habitat, density dependence, and interspecific competition affecting Arctic peregrines in the CRSA by applying the Dail-Madsen model to estimate abundance and vital rates of adults on nesting cliffs from 1981 through 2002. Arctic peregrine abundance increased throughout the 1980s, which spanned the population's recovery from DDT-induced reproductive failure, until exhibiting a stationary trend in the 1990s. Apparent survival rate (i.e., emigration; death) was negatively correlated with the number of adult Arctic peregrines on the cliff the previous year, suggesting effects of density-dependent population regulation. Apparent survival and arrival rates (i.e., immigration; recruitment) were higher during years with earlier snowmelt and milder winters, and apparent survival was positively correlated with nesting season maximum daily temperature. Arrival rate was positively correlated with average Arctic peregrine productivity along a cliff segment from the previous year and initial abundance was positively correlated with cliff height. Higher cliffs with documented higher productivity (presumably indicative of higher-quality habitat), are a priority for continued protection from potential nearby development and disturbance to minimize population-level impacts. Climate change. may affect Arctic peregrines in multiple ways, including through access to more snow-free nest sites and a lengthened breeding season that may increase likelihood of nest success. Our work provides insight into factors affecting a population during and after recovery, and demonstrates how the Dail-Madsen model can be used for any unmarked population with multiple years of abundance data collected through repeated surveys.

Spatio-angular minimum-variance tomographic controller for multi-object adaptive-optics systems.

Multi-object astronomical adaptive optics (MOAO) is now a mature wide-field observation mode to enlarge the adaptive-optics-corrected field in a few specific locations over tens of arcminutes. The work-scope provided by open-loop tomography and pupil conjugation is amenable to a spatio-angular linear-quadratic-Gaussian (SA-LQG) formulation aiming to provide enhanced correction across the field with improved performance over static reconstruction methods and less stringent computational complexity scaling laws. Starting from our previous work [J. Opt. Soc. Am. A31, 101 (2014)10.1364/JOSAA.31.000101JOAOD61084-7529], we use stochastic time-progression models coupled to approximate sparse measurement operators to outline a suitable SA-LQG formulation capable of delivering near optimal correction. Under the spatio-angular framework the wavefronts are never explicitly estimated in the volume, providing considerable computational savings on 10-m-class telescopes and beyond. We find that for Raven, a 10-m-class MOAO system with two science channels, the SA-LQG improves the limiting magnitude by two stellar magnitudes when both the Strehl ratio and the ensquared energy are used as figures of merit. The sky coverage is therefore improved by a factor of ~5.

Tornadic storm avoidance behavior in breeding songbirds.

Migration is a common behavior used by animals of many taxa to occupy different habitats during different periods. Migrant birds are categorized as either facultative (i.e., those that are forced to migrate by some proximal cue, often weather) or obligate (i.e., those that migrate on a regular cycle). During migration, obligate migrants can curtail or delay flights in response to inclement weather or until favorable winds prevail, and they can temporarily reorient or reverse direction when ecological or meteorological obstacles are encountered. However, it is not known whether obligate migrants undertake facultative migrations and make large-scale movements in response to proximal cues outside of their regular migration periods. Here, we present the first documentation of obligate long-distance migrant birds undertaking a facultative migration, wherein breeding golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) carrying light-level geolocators performed a >1,500 km 5-day circumvention of a severe tornadic storm. The birds evacuated their breeding territories >24 hr before the arrival of the storm and atmospheric variation associated with it. The probable cue, radiating >1,000 km from tornadic storms, perceived by birds and influencing bird behavior and movements, is infrasound (i.e., sound below the range of human hearing). With the predicted increase in severity and frequency of similar storms as anthropogenic climate change progresses, understanding large-scale behavioral responses of animals to such events will be an important objective of future research.

Vibrational spectroscopy and chemometrics for rapid, quantitative analysis of bitter acids in hops (Humulus lupulus).

Hops, Humulus lupulus, are grown worldwide for use in the brewing industry to impart characteristic flavor and aroma to finished beer. Breeders produce many varietal crosses with the aim of improving and diversifying commercial hops varieties. The large number of crosses critical to a successful breeding program imposes high demands on the supporting chemical analytical laboratories. With the aim of reducing the analysis time associated with hops breeding, quantitative partial least-squares regression (PLS-R) models have been produced, relating reference data acquired by the industrial standard HPLC and UV methods, to vibrational spectra of the same, chemically diverse hops sample set. These models, produced from rapidly acquired infrared (IR), near-infrared (NIR), and Raman spectra, were appraised using standard statistical metrics. Results demonstrated that all three spectroscopic methods could be used for screening hops for α-acid, total bitter acids, and cohumulone concentrations in powdered hops. Models generated from Raman and IR spectra also showed potential for use in screening hops varieties for xanthohumol concentrations. NIR analysis was performed using both a standard benchtop spectrometer and a portable NIR spectrometer, with comparable results obtained by both instruments. Finally, some important vibrational features of cohumulone, colupulone, and xanthohumol were assigned using DFT calculations, which allow more insightful interpretation of PLS-R latent variable plots.

Screening for anabolic steroids in urine of forensic cases using fully automated solid phase extraction and LC-MS-MS.

A screening method for 18 frequently measured exogenous anabolic steroids and the testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio in forensic cases has been developed and validated. The method involves a fully automated sample preparation including enzyme treatment, addition of internal standards and solid phase extraction followed by analysis by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS-MS) using electrospray ionization with adduct formation for two compounds. Urine samples from 580 forensic cases were analyzed to determine the T/E ratio and occurrence of exogenous anabolic steroids. Extraction recoveries ranged from 77 to 95%, matrix effects from 48 to 78%, overall process efficiencies from 40 to 54% and the lower limit of identification ranged from 2 to 40 ng/mL. In the 580 urine samples analyzed from routine forensic cases, 17 (2.9%) were found positive for one or more anabolic steroids. Only seven different steroids including testosterone were found in the material, suggesting that only a small number of common steroids are likely to occur in a forensic context. The steroids were often in high concentrations (>100 ng/mL), and a combination of steroids and/or other drugs of abuse were seen in the majority of cases. The method presented serves as a fast and automated screening procedure, proving the suitability of LC-MS-MS for analyzing anabolic steroids.

Retirement investment theory explains patterns in songbird nest-site choice.

When opposing evolutionary selection pressures act on a behavioural trait, the result is often stabilizing selection for an intermediate optimal phenotype, with deviations from the predicted optimum attributed to tracking a moving target, development of behavioural syndromes or shifts in riskiness over an individual's lifetime. We investigated nest-site choice by female golden-winged warblers, and the selection pressures acting on that choice by two fitness components, nest success and fledgling survival. We observed strong and consistent opposing selection pressures on nest-site choice for maximizing these two fitness components, and an abrupt, within-season switch in the fitness component birds prioritize via nest-site choice, dependent on the time remaining for additional nesting attempts. We found that females consistently deviated from the predicted optimal behaviour when choosing nest sites because they can make multiple attempts at one fitness component, nest success, but only one attempt at the subsequent component, fledgling survival. Our results demonstrate a unique natural strategy for balancing opposing selection pressures to maximize total fitness. This time-dependent switch from high to low risk tolerance in nest-site choice maximizes songbird fitness in the same way a well-timed switch in human investor risk tolerance can maximize one's nest egg at retirement. Our results also provide strong evidence for the adaptive nature of songbird nest-site choice, which we suggest has been elusive primarily due to a lack of consideration for fledgling survival.