The Andes-Amazon-Atlantic pathway: A foundational hydroclimate system for social-ecological system sustainability.

The Amazon River Basin's extraordinary social-ecological system is sustained by various water phases, fluxes, and stores that are interconnected across the tropical Andes mountains, Amazon lowlands, and Atlantic Ocean. This "Andes-Amazon-Atlantic" (AAA) pathway is a complex hydroclimatic system linked by the regional water cycle through atmospheric circulation and continental hydrology. Here, we aim to articulate the AAA hydroclimate pathway as a foundational system for research, management, conservation, and governance of aquatic systems of the Amazon Basin. We identify and describe the AAA pathway as an interdependent, multidirectional, and multiscale hydroclimate system. We then present an assessment of recent (1981 to 2020) changes in the AAA pathway, primarily reflecting an acceleration in the rates of hydrologic fluxes (i.e., water cycle intensification). We discuss how the changing AAA pathway orchestrates and impacts social-ecological systems. We conclude with four recommendations for the sustainability of the AAA pathway in ongoing research, management, conservation, and governance.

Rapid population growth and high management costs have created a narrow window for control of introduced hippos in Colombia.

The introduction of hippos into the wild in Colombia has been marked by their rapid population growth and widespread dispersal on the landscape, high financial costs of management, and conflicting social perspectives on their management and fate. Here we use population projection models to investigate the effectiveness and cost of management options under consideration for controlling introduced hippos. We estimate there are 91 hippos in the middle Magdalena River basin, Colombia, and the hippo population is growing at an estimated rate of 9.6% per year. At this rate, there will be 230 hippos by 2032 and over 1,000 by 2050. Applying the population control methods currently under consideration will cost at least 1-2 million USD to sufficiently decrease hippo population growth to achieve long-term removal, and depending on the management strategy selected, there may still be hippos on the landscape for 50-100 years. Delaying management actions for a single decade will increase minimum costs by a factor of 2.5, and some methods may become infeasible. Our approach illustrates the trade-offs inherent between cost and effort in managing introduced species, as well as the importance of acting quickly, especially when dealing with species with rapid population growth rates and potential for significant ecological and social impacts.

Biotic Indicators for Ecological State Change in Amazonian Floodplains.

Riverine floodplains are biologically diverse and productive ecosystems. Although tropical floodplains remain relatively conserved and ecologically functional compared to those at higher latitudes, they face accelerated hydropower development, climate change, and deforestation. Alterations to the flood pulse could act synergistically with other drivers of change to promote profound ecological state change at a large spatial scale. State change occurs when an ecosystem reaches a critical threshold or tipping point, which leads to an alternative qualitative state for the ecosystem. Visualizing an alternative state for Amazonian floodplains is not straightforward. Yet, it is critical to recognize that changes to the flood pulse could push tropical floodplain ecosystems over a tipping point with cascading adverse effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We characterize the Amazonian flood pulse regime, summarize evidence of flood pulse change, assess potential ecological repercussions, and provide a monitoring framework for tracking flood pulse change and detecting biotic responses.

Reducing adverse impacts of Amazon hydropower expansion.

Proposed hydropower dams at more than 350 sites throughout the Amazon require strategic evaluation of trade-offs between the numerous ecosystem services provided by Earth's largest and most biodiverse river basin. These services are spatially variable, hence collective impacts of newly built dams depend strongly on their configuration. We use multiobjective optimization to identify portfolios of sites that simultaneously minimize impacts on river flow, river connectivity, sediment transport, fish diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions while achieving energy production goals. We find that uncoordinated, dam-by-dam hydropower expansion has resulted in forgone ecosystem service benefits. Minimizing further damage from hydropower development requires considering diverse environmental impacts across the entire basin, as well as cooperation among Amazonian nations. Our findings offer a transferable model for the evaluation of hydropower expansion in transboundary basins.

The combined effects of climate change and river fragmentation on the distribution of Andean Amazon fishes.

Upstream range shifts of freshwater fishes have been documented in recent years due to ongoing climate change. River fragmentation by dams, presenting physical barriers, can limit the climatically induced spatial redistribution of fishes. Andean freshwater ecosystems in the Neotropical region are expected to be highly affected by these future disturbances. However, proper evaluations are still missing. Combining species distribution models and functional traits of Andean Amazon fishes, coupled with dam locations and climatic projections (2070s), we (a) evaluated the potential impacts of future climate on species ranges, (b) investigated the combined impact of river fragmentation and climate change and (c) tested the relationships between these impacts and species functional traits. Results show that climate change will induce range contraction for most of the Andean Amazon fish species, particularly those inhabiting highlands. Dams are not predicted to greatly limit future range shifts for most species (i.e., the Barrier effect). However, some of these barriers should prevent upstream shifts for a considerable number of species, reducing future potential diversity in some basins. River fragmentation is predicted to act jointly with climate change in promoting a considerable decrease in the probability of species to persist in the long-term because of splitting species ranges in smaller fragments (i.e., the Isolation effect). Benthic and fast-flowing water adapted species with hydrodynamic bodies are significantly associated with severe range contractions from climate change.

Understanding rivers and their social relations: A critical step to advance environmental water management.

River flows connect people, places, and other forms of life, inspiring and sustaining diverse cultural beliefs, values, and ways of life. The concept of environmental flows provides a framework for improving understanding of relationships between river flows and people, and for supporting those that are mutually beneficial. Nevertheless, most approaches to determining environmental flows remain grounded in the biophysical sciences. The newly revised Brisbane Declaration and Global Action Agenda on Environmental Flows (2018) represents a new phase in environmental flow science and an opportunity to better consider the co-constitution of river flows, ecosystems, and society, and to more explicitly incorporate these relationships into river management. We synthesize understanding of relationships between people and rivers as conceived under the renewed definition of environmental flows. We present case studies from Honduras, India, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia that illustrate multidisciplinary, collaborative efforts where recognizing and meeting diverse flow needs of human populations was central to establishing environmental flow recommendations. We also review a small body of literature to highlight examples of the diversity and interdependencies of human-flow relationships-such as the linkages between river flow and human well-being, spiritual needs, cultural identity, and sense of place-that are typically overlooked when environmental flows are assessed and negotiated. Finally, we call for scientists and water managers to recognize the diversity of ways of knowing, relating to, and utilizing rivers, and to place this recognition at the center of future environmental flow assessments. This article is categorized under: Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness Human Water > Water Governance Human Water > Water as Imagined and Represented.

A global perspective on tropical montane rivers.

Tropical montane rivers (TMR) are born in tropical mountains, descend through montane forests, and feed major rivers, floodplains, and oceans. They are characterized by rapid temperature clines and varied flow disturbance regimes, both of which promote habitat heterogeneity, high biological diversity and endemism, and distinct organisms' life-history adaptations. Production, transport, and processing of sediments, nutrients, and carbon are key ecosystem processes connecting high-elevation streams with lowland floodplains, in turn influencing soil fertility and biotic productivity downstream. TMR provide key ecosystem services to hundreds of millions of people in tropical nations. In light of existing human-induced disturbances, including climate change, TMR can be used as natural model systems to examine the effects of rapid changes in abiotic drivers and their influence on biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Fragmentation of Andes-to-Amazon connectivity by hydropower dams.

Andes-to-Amazon river connectivity controls numerous natural and human systems in the greater Amazon. However, it is being rapidly altered by a wave of new hydropower development, the impacts of which have been previously underestimated. We document 142 dams existing or under construction and 160 proposed dams for rivers draining the Andean headwaters of the Amazon. Existing dams have fragmented the tributary networks of six of eight major Andean Amazon river basins. Proposed dams could result in significant losses in river connectivity in river mainstems of five of eight major systems-the Napo, Marañón, Ucayali, Beni, and Mamoré. With a newly reported 671 freshwater fish species inhabiting the Andean headwaters of the Amazon (>500 m), dams threaten previously unrecognized biodiversity, particularly among endemic and migratory species. Because Andean rivers contribute most of the sediment in the mainstem Amazon, losses in river connectivity translate to drastic alteration of river channel and floodplain geomorphology and associated ecosystem services.

A regional perspective on the diversity and conservation of tropical Andean fishes.

The tropical Andes harbor an extraordinarily varied concentration of species in a landscape under increasing pressure from human activities. Conservation of the region's native plants and animals has received considerable international attention, but the focus has been on terrestrial biota. The conservation of freshwater fauna, particularly the conservation of fishes, has not been emphasized. Tropical Andean fishes are among the most understudied vertebrates in the world. We estimate that between 400 and 600 fish species inhabit the diverse aquatic environments in the region. Nearly 40% of these species are endemic. Tropical Andean fishes are vulnerable to ongoing environmental changes related to deforestation, water withdrawals, water pollution, species introductions, and hydropower development. Additionally, their distributions and population dynamics may be affected by hydrologic alterations and warmer water temperatures associated with projected climate change. Presently, at least three species are considered extinct, some populations are endangered, and some species are likely to decline or disappear. The long-term persistence of tropical Andean fishes will depend on greater consideration of freshwater systems in regional conservation initiatives.