A more ecological perspective on human-robot interactions.

Drawing from two strands of ecological psychology, we suggest that even if social robots are interactive depictions, people need not mentally represent them as such. Rather, people can engage with the opportunities for action or affordances that social robots offer to them. These affordances are constrained by the larger sociocultural settings within which human-robot interactions occur.

Extended seasonal prediction of spring precipitation over the Upper Colorado River Basin.

This study provides extended seasonal predictions for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) precipitation in boreal spring using an artificial neural network (ANN) model and a stepwise linear regression model, respectively. Sea surface temperature (SST) predictors are developed taking advantage of the correlation between the precipitation and SST over three ocean basins. The extratropical North Pacific has a higher correlation with the UCRB spring precipitation than the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. For the ANN model, the Pearson correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted precipitation exceeds 0.45 (p-value < 0.01) for a lead time of 12 months. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is below 20% and the Heidke skill score (HSS) is above 50%. Such long-lead prediction skill is probably due to the UCRB soil moisture bridging the SST and precipitation. The stepwise linear regression model shows similar prediction skills to those of ANN. Both models show prediction skills superior to those of an autoregression model (correlation < 0.10) that represents the baseline prediction skill and those of three of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast models. The three NMME models exhibit different skills in predicting the precipitation, with the best skills of the correlation ~ 0.40, MAPE < 25%, and HSS > 40% for lead times less than 8 months. This study highlights the advantage of oceanic climate signals in extended seasonal predictions for the UCRB spring precipitation and supports the improvement of the UCRB streamflow prediction and related water resource decisions. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-022-06422-x.

The emperor has no blanket!

While we applaud Bruineberg et al.'s analysis of the differences between Markov blankets and Friston blankets, we think it is not carried out to its ultimate consequences. There are reasons to think that, once Friston blankets are accepted as a theoretical construct, they do not do the work proponents of free energy principle (FEP) attribute to them. The emperor is indeed naked.

The stimulus-response crisis.

Yarkoni correctly recognizes that one reason for psychology's generalizability crisis is the failure to account for variance within experiments. We argue that this problem, and the generalizability crisis broadly, is a necessary consequence of the stimulus-response paradigm widely used in psychology research. We point to another methodology, perturbation experiments, as a remedy that is not vulnerable to the same problems.

The Markov blanket trick: On the scope of the free energy principle and active inference.

The free energy principle (FEP) has been presented as a unified brain theory, as a general principle for the self-organization of biological systems, and most recently as a principle for a theory of every thing. Additionally, active inference has been proposed as the process theory entailed by FEP that is able to model the full range of biological and cognitive events. In this paper, we challenge these two claims. We argue that FEP is not the general principle it is claimed to be, and that active inference is not the all-encompassing process theory it is purported to be either. The core aspects of our argumentation are that (i) FEP is just a way to generalize Bayesian inference to all domains by the use of a Markov blanket formalism, a generalization we call the Markov blanket trick; and that (ii) active inference presupposes successful perception and action instead of explaining them.

As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality.

There is strong evidence that short-run fluctuations in air pollution negatively impact infant health and contemporaneous adult health, but there is less evidence on the causal link between long-term exposure to air pollution and increased adult mortality. This project estimates the impact of long-term exposure to air pollution on mortality by leveraging quasi-random variation in pollution levels generated by wind patterns near major highways. I combine geocoded data on the residence of every decedent in Los Angeles over three years, high-frequency wind data, and Census short form data. Using these data, I estimate the effect of downwind exposure to highway-generated pollutants on the age-specific mortality rate by using orientation to the nearest major highway as an instrument for pollution exposure. I find that doubling the percentage of time spent downwind of a highway increases mortality among individuals 75 or older by 3.8%-6.5%. These estimates are robust and imply significant loss of life years.

Extended Skill Learning.

Within the ecological and enactive approaches in cognitive science, a tension exists in how the process of skill learning is understood. Skill learning can be understood in a narrow sense, as a process of bodily change over time, or in an extended sense, as a change in the structure of the animal-environment system. We propose to resolve this tension by rejecting the first understanding in favor of the second. We thus defend an extended approach to skill learning. An extended understanding of skill learning views bodily changes as being embedded in a larger process of interaction between the organism and specific structures in the environment. Such an extended approach is committed to the claims that (1) the appropriate unit of analysis for understanding skill learning is not the body but the activity and (2) learning consists in the establishment and adaptive organization of enabling constraints on that activity. We focus on two example cases: maintaining upright posture and walking. In both cases, environmental structures play a constitutive role in the activity throughout learning, but the specific environmental structures that are involved in the activity change over time. At an early stage, the child makes use of an environmental "support"-for example, holding onto furniture to maintain upright posture. Later, once further constraints have been established, the child is able to let go of the furniture and remain upright. We argue that adopting an extended understanding of skill learning offers a promising strategy for unifying ecological and enactive approaches and can also potentially ground a radically embodied approach to higher cognition.

The Effect of Influenza Vaccination for the Elderly on Hospitalization and Mortality: An Observational Study With a Regression Discontinuity Design.

Background: Observational studies using traditional research designs suggest that influenza vaccination reduces hospitalizations and mortality among elderly persons. Accordingly, health authorities in some countries prioritize vaccination of this population. Nevertheless, questions remain about this policy's effectiveness given the potential for bias and confounding in observational data. Objective: To determine the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in reducing hospitalizations and mortality among elderly persons by using an observational research design that reduces the possibility of bias and confounding. Design: A regression discontinuity design was applied to the sharp change in vaccination rate at age 65 years that resulted from an age-based vaccination policy in the United Kingdom. In this design, comparisons were limited to individuals who were near the age-65 threshold and were thus plausibly similar along most dimensions except vaccination rate. Setting: England and Wales. Participants: Adults aged 55 to 75 years residing in the study area during 2000 to 2014. Intervention: Seasonal influenza vaccine. Measurements: Hospitalization and mortality rates by month of age. Results: The data included 170 million episodes of care and 7.6 million deaths. Turning 65 was associated with a statistically and clinically significant increase in rate of seasonal influenza vaccination. However, no evidence indicated that vaccination reduced hospitalizations or mortality among elderly persons. The estimates were precise enough to rule out results from many previous studies. Limitation: The study relied on observational data, and its focus was limited to individuals near age 65 years. Conclusion: Current vaccination strategies prioritizing elderly persons may be less effective than believed at reducing serious morbidity and mortality in this population, which suggests that supplementary strategies may be necessary. Primary Funding Source: National Institute on Aging.

Physical activity and weight following car ownership in Beijing, China: quasi-experimental cross sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the implications of car ownership for physical activity and weight in a global city. DESIGN: Quasi-experimental cross sectional study. SETTING: Beijing, China, 2011-15. PARTICIPANTS: People aged 18 and older from a random sample of households who had entered a permit lottery to purchase a vehicle between January 2011 and November 2015. INTERVENTIONS: Permit allowing purchase of a vehicle within six months of permit issuance. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Transit use (number of subway and bus rides each week), physical activity (minutes of walking or bicycling each day), and weight, measured once in early 2016. RESULTS: Of 937 people analysed in total, 180 had won a permit to purchase a new vehicle. Winning the permit lottery resulted in the purchase of an additional vehicle 91% of the time (95% confidence interval 89% to 94%; P<0.001). About five years after winning, winners took significantly fewer weekly transit rides (-2.9 rides (-5.1 to -0.7); P=0.01) and walked and cycled significantly less (-24.2 minutes (-40.3 to -8.1); P=0.003) than those who did not win the lottery. Average weight did not change significantly between lottery winners and losers. Among those aged 50 and older, however, winners' weight had increased relative to that of losers (10.3 kg (0.5 to 20.2); P=0.04) 5.1 years after winning. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that vehicle ownership in a rapidly growing global city led to long term reductions in physical activity and increase in weight. Continuing increases in car use and ownership in developing and middle income countries could adversely affect physical health and obesity rates.

Culture in the world shapes culture in the head (and vice versa).

We agree with Heyes that an explanation of human uniqueness must appeal to cultural evolution, and not just genes. Her account, though, focuses narrowly on internal cognitive mechanisms. This causes her to mischaracterize human behavior and to overlook the role of material culture. A more powerful account would view cognitive gadgets as spanning organisms and their (shared) environments.

The Embodiment of Objects: Review, Analysis, and Future Directions.

Here we offer a thorough review of the empirical literature on the conditions under which an object, such as a tool or a prosthetic (whether real or virtual), can be experienced as being in some sense a part or extension of one's body. We discuss this literature both from the standpoint of the apparent malleability of our body representations, and also from within the framework of radical embodied cognition, which understands the phenomenon to result not from an alteration to a representation, but rather from the achievement of a certain kind of sensory/motor coupling. We highlight both the tensions between these frameworks, and also areas where they can productively complement one another for future research.

What phantom limbs are.

Nearly everyone who undergoes the sudden loss of a limb will continue to feel the presence of and experience sensations in the missing limb for at least some time after the loss. This "phantom limb" phenomenon has been known for centuries, but remains poorly understood. Most work on phantom limb phenomena focuses on the phantom sensations, especially pain, that seem to emanate from the missing limb. This work tends to focus on the role of the body image in maintaining the sense of the phantom. A minority of work in the field distinguishes the body image from body schema, and offers an important corrective to the literature by outlining the unique contribution of the latter to generating and maintaining phantom limb phenomena. Here I review this literature, and motivate a further distinction between a motor body schema and a somatosensory body schema, which allows me to develop a novel hypothesis about the specific contributions of each to the experience of a phantom limb.

Beyond the evoked/intrinsic neural process dichotomy.

Contemporary functional neuroimaging research has increasingly focused on characterization of intrinsic or "spontaneous" brain activity. Analysis of intrinsic activity is often contrasted with analysis of task-evoked activity that has traditionally been the focus of cognitive neuroscience. But does this evoked/intrinsic dichotomy adequately characterize human brain function? Based on empirical data demonstrating a close functional interdependence between intrinsic and task-evoked activity, we argue that the dichotomy between intrinsic and task-evoked activity as unobserved contributions to brain activity is artificial. We present an alternative picture of brain function in which the brain's spatiotemporal dynamics do not consist of separable intrinsic and task-evoked components, but reflect the enaction of a system of mutual constraints to move the brain into and out of task-appropriate functional configurations. According to this alternative picture, cognitive neuroscientists are tasked with describing both the temporal trajectory of brain activity patterns across time, and the modulation of this trajectory by task states, without separating this process into intrinsic and task-evoked components. We argue that this alternative picture of brain function is best captured in a novel explanatory framework called enabling constraint. Overall, these insights call for a reconceptualization of functional brain activity, and should drive future methodological and empirical efforts.

Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system.

Reply to reviewers: Reuse, embodied interactivity, and the emerging paradigm shift in the human neurosciences.

In this reply to reviewers, I argue that, although reforming the taxonomy of psychology will lead to great insights in the cognitive sciences, it will not result in 1:1 structure-function mappings in the brain; we should expect to see a great deal of irreducible functional diversity in the brain at multiple spatial scales. I further clarify both the promise and the limitations of the analytic techniques for capturing functional diversity and interrogating the taxonomy of psychology; describe the ways in which neural reuse can help us understand human development; further explore the ways in which my proposals for integrating psychology, neuroscience, and evolutionary biology differ from the approach exemplified by contemporary evolutionary psychology; and lay out some new and hopefully interesting avenues for future research.

Tracking changes and preventing loss in critical tiger habitat.

The global population of wild tigers remains dangerously low at fewer than 3500 individuals. Habitat loss, along with poaching, can undermine the international target recovery of doubling the number of wild tigers by 2022. Using a new satellite-based monitoring system, we analyzed 14 years of forest loss data within the 76 landscapes (ranging from 278 to 269,983 km(2)) that have been prioritized for conservation of wild tigers. Our analysis provides an update of the status of tiger habitat and describes new applications of technology to detect precisely where forest loss is occurring in order to curb future habitat loss. Across the 76 landscapes, forest loss was far less than anticipated (79,597 ± 22,629 km(2), 7.7% of remaining habitat) over the 14-year study period (2001-2014). Habitat loss was unevenly distributed within a subset of 29 landscapes deemed most critical for doubling wild tiger populations: 19 showed little change (1.5%), whereas 10 accounted for more than 98% (57,392 ± 16,316 km(2)) of habitat loss. Habitat loss in source population sites within 76 landscapes ranged from no loss to 435 ± 124 km(2) ([Formula: see text], SD = 89, total = 1676 ± 476 km(2)). Doubling the tiger population by 2022 requires moving beyond tracking annual changes in habitat. We highlight near-real-time forest monitoring technologies that provide alerts of forest loss at relevant spatial and temporal scales to prevent further erosion.

Neural reuse in the organization and development of the brain.

Neural reuse is the process by which neural elements originally developed for one purpose are put to many different subsequent uses. In this brief review I will outline the role of neural reuse in the development of the brain. Special attention will be paid to elucidating and differentiating between two different mechanisms of neurocognitive development: Hebbian plasticity, the importance of which is already well known, and a neural search mechanism that supports the establishment of new functional partnerships in the brain. I describe how these two mechanisms work in concert throughout development to produce the functional architecture we observe in the adult brain; outline the evidence for the importance of neural reuse; offer suggestions for some clinical implications of neural reuse; and point to future research directions.

Psychotropic medications in adult and adolescent eating disorders: clinical practice versus evidence-based recommendations.

AIM: The current study examined the frequency of psychotropic prescriptions in a clinical sample of eating disorder (ED) patients confirming earlier research indicating their use is very common but inconsistent with evidence-based recommendations. METHODS: The sample consisted of 501 ED patients admitted to an adult partial hospitalization or adolescent residential program. Patients were divided into two diagnostic groups: anorexia nervosa (AN = 287) and bulimia nervosa (BN = 214), as well as two age groups: adults (age ≥18; N = 318) and adolescents (age <18; N = 183). RESULTS: Forty-one different psychotropic medications (891 prescriptions in all) were prescribed for 429 patients. Overall, 85.6 % of the total sample reported using one or more psychotropic medications. Of 429 patients using any medications, 46.9 % were on two or more, 25.3 % on three or more, and 11.0 % four or more. Antidepressants were most commonly prescribed (89.5 % of those on medication) with no significant differences in usage patterns based on diagnosis. However, there was greater medication use among adults (89.6 %) compared to adolescents (78.7 %). Results indicate psychotropic medication prescription is more widespread in a clinical sample than in an earlier report screening for osteoporosis in AN women. DISCUSSION: Treatment recommendations suggest medication should not be the primary treatment for EDs and empirical evidence demonstrates their ineffectiveness in AN. Nevertheless, there were no differences in frequency found between diagnostic groups, confirming little relationship between evidence-based recommendations and actual clinical use for those referred to a specialized ED treatment facility. This study adds new evidence regarding age-based comparisons of psychotropic prescription frequency in clinical EDs and comparison between AN and BN which has not been examined in earlier studies.