Understanding temporal variability across trophic levels and spatial scales in freshwater ecosystems.

A tenet of ecology is that temporal variability in ecological structure and processes tends to decrease with increasing spatial scales (from locales to regions) and levels of biological organization (from populations to communities). However, patterns in temporal variability across trophic levels and the mechanisms that produce them remain poorly understood. Here we analyzed the abundance time series of spatially structured communities (i.e., metacommunities) spanning basal resources to top predators from 355 freshwater sites across three continents. Specifically, we used a hierarchical partitioning method to disentangle the propagation of temporal variability in abundance across spatial scales and trophic levels. We then used structural equation modeling to determine if the strength and direction of relationships between temporal variability, synchrony, biodiversity, and environmental and spatial settings depended on trophic level and spatial scale. We found that temporal variability in abundance decreased from producers to tertiary consumers but did so mainly at the local scale. Species population synchrony within sites increased with trophic level, whereas synchrony among communities decreased. At the local scale, temporal variability in precipitation and species diversity were associated with population variability (linear partial coefficient, ß = 0.23) and population synchrony (ß = -0.39) similarly across trophic levels, respectively. At the regional scale, community synchrony was not related to climatic or spatial predictors, but the strength of relationships between metacommunity variability and community synchrony decreased systematically from top predators (ß = 0.73) to secondary consumers (ß = 0.54), to primary consumers (ß = 0.30) to producers (ß = 0). Our results suggest that mobile predators may often stabilize metacommunities by buffering variability that originates at the base of food webs. This finding illustrates that the trophic structure of metacommunities, which integrates variation in organismal body size and its correlates, should be considered when investigating ecological stability in natural systems. More broadly, our work advances the notion that temporal stability is an emergent property of ecosystems that may be threatened in complex ways by biodiversity loss and habitat fragmentation.

Demographic effects of phenological variation in natural populations of two pond-breeding salamanders.

Phenology is a key driver of population and community dynamics. Phenological metrics (e.g., first date that an event occurred) often simplify information from the full phenological distribution, which may undermine efforts to determine the importance of life history events. Data regarding full phenological distributions are especially needed as many species are shifting phenology with climatic change which can alter life-history patterns and species dynamics. We tested whether skewness, kurtosis or maximum duration of breeding phenology affected juvenile emigration phenology and survival in natural populations of ringed (Ambystoma annulatum) and spotted salamanders (A. maculatum) spanning a 7-year period at two study locations. We evaluated the relative importance of different phenological metrics in breeding phenology and larval density dependence on emigration phenology and survival. We found that variability in emigration phenology differed by species, with ringed salamanders having a shorter duration and distributions that were more often right-skewed and leptokurtic compared to spotted salamanders. Emigration phenology was not linked to any measure of variability in breeding phenology, indicating phenological variability operates independently across life stages and may be subject to stage-specific influences. Emigration duration and skewness were partially explained by larval density, which demonstrates how phenological distributions may change with species interactions. Further tests that use the full phenological distribution to link variability in timing of life history events to demographic traits such as survival are needed to determine if and how phenological shifts will impact species persistence.

Direct effects influence larval salamander size and density more than indirect effects.

Direct and indirect effects both influence population and community dynamics. The relative strengths of these pathways are often compared using experimental approaches, but their evaluation in situ has been less frequent. We examined how individual and aggregate impacts of direct and indirect effects of species densities, proxies for competition and predation pressure, and habitat variables influenced patterns of larval density and body size of ringed (Ambystoma annulatum) and spotted salamanders (A. maculatum). We surveyed > 150 ponds in Missouri, USA, from 2012 to 2014 to measure the density and body size of each focal species, the density of co-occurring pond food web members, and select habitat features. We used structural equation modeling to quantify the relative importance of direct and indirect pathways on both body size and larval density. Overall, both responses were explained through a combination of direct and indirect effects. However, the magnitudes of direct effects were often greater than indirect effects. Some of the direct and indirect relationships with larval salamander size and density were also consistent with results from experimental studies. Finally, total direct and indirect effects were often weaker due to habitat and density variables negating each other's impacts. Overall, our study shows that direct effects were equivalent to, or more important than, indirect effects. We also demonstrate that the effects stemming from individual relationships can sum to produce net patterns that are negligible in magnitude. Further work on direct and indirect effects with observational data are needed to examine their magnitudes in natural communities.

Synchronous effects produce cycles in deer populations and deer-vehicle collisions.

Population cycles are fundamentally linked with spatial synchrony, the prevailing paradigm being that populations with cyclic dynamics are easily synchronised. That is, population cycles help give rise to spatial synchrony. Here we demonstrate this process can work in reverse, with synchrony causing population cycles. We show that timescale-specific environmental effects, by synchronising local population dynamics on certain timescales only, cause major population cycles over large areas in white-tailed deer. An important aspect of the new mechanism is specificity of synchronising effects to certain timescales, which causes local dynamics to sum across space to a substantial cycle on those timescales. We also demonstrate, to our knowledge for the first time, that synchrony can be transmitted not only from environmental drivers to populations (deer), but also from there to human systems (deer-vehicle collisions). Because synchrony of drivers may be altered by climate change, changes to population cycles may arise via our mechanism.

Efficacy of a Chronic Care-Based Intervention on Secondary Stroke Prevention Among Vulnerable Stroke Survivors: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Disparities of care among stroke survivors are well documented. Effective interventions to improve recurrent stroke preventative care in vulnerable populations are lacking. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a randomized controlled trial, we tested the efficacy of components of a chronic care model-based intervention versus usual care among 404 subjects having an ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack within 90 days of enrollment and receiving care within the Los Angeles public healthcare system. Subjects had baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥120 mm Hg. The intervention included a nurse practitioner/physician assistant care manager, group clinics, self-management support, report cards, decision support, and ongoing care coordination. Outcomes were collected at 3, 8, and 12 months, analyzed as intention-to-treat, and used repeated-measures mixed-effects models. Change in SBP was the primary outcome. Low-density lipoprotein reduction, antithrombotic medication use, smoking cessation, and physical activity were secondary outcomes. Average age was 57 years; 18% were of black race; 69% were of Hispanic ethnicity. Mean baseline SBP was 150 mm Hg in both arms. SBP decreased to 17 mm Hg in the intervention arm and 14 mm Hg in the usual care arm; the between-arm difference was not significant (-3.6 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, -9.2 to 2.2). Among secondary outcomes, the only significant difference was that persons in the intervention arm were more likely to lower their low-density lipoprotein <100 md/dL (2.0 odds ratio; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-3.5). CONCLUSIONS: This intervention did not improve SBP control beyond that attained in usual care among vulnerable stroke survivors. A community-centered component could strengthen the intervention impact. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00861081.

Variation in phenology and density differentially affects predator-prey interactions between salamanders.

Variation in the timing of breeding (i.e., phenological variation) can affect species interactions and community structure, in part by shifting body size differences between species. Body size differences can be further altered by density-dependent competition, though synergistic effects of density and phenology on species interactions are rarely evaluated. We tested how field-realistic variation in phenology and density affected ringed salamander (Ambystoma annulatum) predation on spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum), and whether these altered salamander dynamics resulted in trophic cascades. In outdoor mesocosms, we experimentally manipulated ringed salamander density (low/high) and breeding phenology (early/late) of both species. Ringed salamander body size at metamorphosis, development, and growth were reduced at higher densities, while delayed phenology increased hatchling size and larval development, but reduced relative growth rates. Survival of ringed salamanders was affected by the interactive effects of phenology and density. In contrast, spotted salamander growth, size at metamorphosis, and survival, as well as the biomass of lower trophic levels, were negatively affected primarily by ringed salamander density. In an additional mesocosm experiment, we isolated whether ringed salamanders could deplete shared resources prior to their interactions with spotted salamanders, but instead found direct interactions (e.g., predation) were the more likely mechanism by which ringed salamanders limited spotted salamanders. Overall, our results indicate the effects of phenological variability on fitness-related traits can be modified or superseded by differences in density dependence. Identifying such context dependencies will lead to greater insight into when phenological variation will likely alter species interactions.

Response of Local Nitric Oxide Release to Manual Acupuncture and Electrical Heat in Humans: Effects of Reinforcement Methods.

This study was to examine the influences of manual acupuncture (MA) and electrical heat corresponding to reinforcing methods on nitric oxide (NO) release over the skin regions in humans. A device with collecting solution was taped to the skin surface along pericardium (PC) or lung (LU) meridian. Acupuncture needles were gently inserted into PC 4 with reinforcing stimulation (low force/rate) for 20 minutes in the MA group. LU11 on the finger was heated (43-44°C) by electrical heat for 20 minutes. Biocapture was consecutively conducted for two 20-minute intervals during and after each treatment. Total nitrite and nitrate (NO x-) in the collecting samples were quantified using chemiluminescence in blinded fashion. Baseline NO x- levels are higher and tended to be higher over PC and LU acupoints during the 1st biocapture. NO x- levels over PC regions were consistently increased by MA during both intervals. NO x- concentrations over LU acupoints were increased and tended to be increased by electrical heat in the 1st and 2nd biocapture. The results suggest that reinforcing MA and electrical heat induce NO released from the local skin regions with higher levels at acupoints, which improve local circulation and contribute to the beneficial effects of the therapies.

The influence of breeding phenology on the genetic structure of four pond-breeding salamanders.

Understanding metapopulation dynamics requires knowledge about local population dynamics and movement in both space and time. Most genetic metapopulation studies use one or two study species across the same landscape to infer population dynamics; however, using multiple co-occurring species allows for testing of hypotheses related to different life history strategies. We used genetic data to study dispersal, as measured by gene flow, in three ambystomatid salamanders (Ambystoma annulatum, A. maculatum, and A. opacum) and the Central Newt (Notophthalmus viridescens louisianensis) on the same landscape in Missouri, USA. While all four salamander species are forest dependent organisms that require fishless ponds to reproduce, they differ in breeding phenology and spatial distribution on the landscape. We use these differences in life history and distribution to address the following questions: (1) Are there species-level differences in the observed patterns of genetic diversity and genetic structure? and (2) Is dispersal influenced by landscape resistance? We detected two genetic clusters in A. annulatum and A. opacum on our landscape; both species breed in the fall and larvae overwinter in ponds. In contrast, no structure was evident in A. maculatum and N. v. louisianensis, species that breed during the spring. Tests for isolation by distance were significant for the three ambystomatids but not for N. v. louisianensis. Landscape resistance also contributed to genetic differentiation for all four species. Our results suggest species-level differences in dispersal ability and breeding phenology are driving observed patterns of genetic differentiation. From an evolutionary standpoint, the observed differences in dispersal distances and genetic structure between fall breeding and spring breeding species may be a result of the trade-off between larval period length and size at metamorphosis which in turn may influence the long-term viability of the metapopulation. Thus, it is important to consider life history differences among closely related and ecologically similar species when making management decisions.

The geography of spatial synchrony.

Spatial synchrony, defined as correlated temporal fluctuations among populations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of synchrony remain poorly understood. Few studies have examined detailed geographical patterns of synchrony; instead most focus on how synchrony declines with increasing linear distance between locations, making the simplifying assumption that distance decay is isotropic. By synthesising and extending prior work, we show how geography of synchrony, a term which we use to refer to detailed spatial variation in patterns of synchrony, can be leveraged to understand ecological processes including identification of drivers of synchrony, a long-standing challenge. We focus on three main objectives: (1) showing conceptually and theoretically four mechanisms that can generate geographies of synchrony; (2) documenting complex and pronounced geographies of synchrony in two important study systems; and (3) demonstrating a variety of methods capable of revealing the geography of synchrony and, through it, underlying organism ecology. For example, we introduce a new type of network, the synchrony network, the structure of which provides ecological insight. By documenting the importance of geographies of synchrony, advancing conceptual frameworks, and demonstrating powerful methods, we aim to help elevate the geography of synchrony into a mainstream area of study and application.

Externally Delivered Focused Ultrasound for Renal Denervation.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess clinical safety and efficacy outcomes of renal denervation executed by an externally delivered, completely noninvasive focused therapeutic ultrasound device. BACKGROUND: Renal denervation has emerged as a potential treatment approach for resistant hypertension. METHODS: Sixty-nine subjects received renal denervation with externally delivered focused ultrasound via the Kona Medical Surround Sound System. This approach was investigated across 3 consecutive studies to optimize targeting, tracking, and dosing. In the third study, treatments were performed in a completely noninvasive way using duplex ultrasound image guidance to target the therapy. Short- and long-term safety and efficacy were evaluated through use of clinical assessments, magnetic resonance imaging scans prior to and 3 and 24 weeks after renal denervation, and, in cases in which a targeting catheter was used to facilitate targeting, fluoroscopic angiography with contrast. RESULTS: All patients tolerated renal denervation using externally delivered focused ultrasound. Office blood pressure (BP) decreased by 24.6 ± 27.6/9.0 ± 15.0 mm Hg (from baseline BP of 180.0 ± 18.5/97.7 ± 13.7 mm Hg) in 69 patients after 6 months and 23.8 ± 24.1/10.3 ± 13.1 mm Hg in 64 patients with complete 1-year follow-up. The response rate (BP decrease >10 mm Hg) was 75% after 6 months and 77% after 1 year. The most common adverse event was post-treatment back pain, which was reported in 32 of 69 patients and resolved within 72 h in most cases. No intervention-related adverse events involving motor or sensory deficits were reported. Renal function was not altered, and vascular safety was established by magnetic resonance imaging (all patients), fluoroscopic angiography (n = 48), and optical coherence tomography (n = 5). CONCLUSIONS: Using externally delivered focused ultrasound and noninvasive duplex ultrasound, image-guided targeting was associated with substantial BP reduction without any major safety signals. Further randomized, sham-controlled trials will be needed to validate this unique approach.

Top predators and habitat complexity alter an intraguild predation module in pond communities.

Predator diversity and habitat complexity frequently influence species interactions at lower trophic levels, yet their joint investigation has been performed infrequently despite the demonstrated importance of each individual factor. We investigated how different top predators and varying habitat complexity influence the function of an intraguild predation module consisting of two larval salamanders, intraguild predator Ambystoma annulatum and intraguild prey A. maculatum. We manipulated predator food webs and habitat complexity in outdoor mesocosms. Top predators significantly influenced body condition and survival of A. annulatum, but habitat complexity had minimal effects on either response. A three-way interaction among the covariates top predator identity, habitat complexity and A. annulatum survival influenced body condition and survival of A. maculatum via a density-mediated indirect effect. Different top predator combinations had variable effects in different habitat complexity treatments on intraguild predator (A. annulatum) survival that subsequently influenced intraguild prey (A. maculatum) body condition and survival. Future work should consider how different top predators influence other food web components, which should vary due to predator attributes and the physical environments in which they co-occur.

Life history differences influence the impacts of drought on two pond-breeding salamanders.

Drought is a strong density-independent environmental filter that contributes to population regulation and other ecological processes. Not all species respond similarly to drought, and the overall impacts can vary depending on life histories. Such differences can necessitate management strategies that incorporate information on individual species to maximize conservation success. We report the effects of a short-term drought on occupancy and reproductive success of two pond-breeding salamanders that differ in breeding phenology (fall vs. spring breeder) across an active military base landscape in Missouri, USA: We surveyed ~200 ponds for the presence of eggs, larvae, and metamorphs from 2011 to 2013. This period coincided with before, during, and after a severe drought that occurred in 2012. The two species showed contrasting responses to drought, where high reproductive failure (34% of ponds) was observed for the spring breeder during a single drought year. Alternatively, the fall breeder only showed a cumulative 8% failure over two years. The number of breeding ponds available for use in the fall decreased during the drought due to pond drying and/or a lack of re-filling. Estimates of occupancy probability declined for the fall-breeding salamander between 2012 and 2013, whereas occupancy probability estimates of the spring breeder increased post-drought. The presence of fish, hydroperiod, the amount of forest cover surrounding ponds, and canopy cover were all found to affect estimates of occupancy probabilities of each species. Pond clustering (distance to nearest pond and the number of ponds within close proximity), hydroperiod, forest cover, and canopy cover influenced both estimates of colonization and extinction probabilities. Our results show life history variation can be important in determining the relative susceptibility of a species to drought conditions, and that sympatric species experiencing the same environmental conditions can respond differently. Consideration of the spatial network and configuration of habitat patches that act as refuges under extreme environmental conditions will improve conservation efforts, such as the placement of permanent ponds for aquatic organisms. A better awareness of species-specific tolerances to environmental filters such as drought can lead to improved management recommendations to conserve and promote habitat for a greater diversity of species across landscapes of spatially connected populations.

Intermediate pond sizes contain the highest density, richness, and diversity of pond-breeding amphibians.

We present data on amphibian density, species richness, and diversity from a 7140-ha area consisting of 200 ponds in the Midwestern U.S. that represents most of the possible lentic aquatic breeding habitats common in this region. Our study includes all possible breeding sites with natural and anthropogenic disturbance processes that can be missing from studies where sampling intensity is low, sample area is small, or partial disturbance gradients are sampled. We tested whether pond area was a significant predictor of density, species richness, and diversity of amphibians and if values peaked at intermediate pond areas. We found that in all cases a quadratic model fit our data significantly better than a linear model. Because small ponds have a high probability of pond drying and large ponds have a high probability of fish colonization and accumulation of invertebrate predators, drying and predation may be two mechanisms driving the peak of density and diversity towards intermediate values of pond size. We also found that not all intermediate sized ponds produced many larvae; in fact, some had low amphibian density, richness, and diversity. Further analyses of the subset of ponds represented in the peak of the area distribution showed that fish, hydroperiod, invertebrate density, and canopy are additional factors that drive density, richness and diversity of ponds up or down, when extremely small or large ponds are eliminated. Our results indicate that fishless ponds at intermediate sizes are more diverse, produce more larvae, and have greater potential to recruit juveniles into adult populations of most species sampled. Further, hylid and chorus frogs are found predictably more often in ephemeral ponds whereas bullfrogs, green frogs, and cricket frogs are found most often in permanent ponds with fish. Our data increase understanding of what factors structure and maintain amphibian diversity across large landscapes.

Habitat traits and species interactions differentially affect abundance and body size in pond-breeding amphibians.

In recent studies, habitat traits have emerged as stronger predictors of species occupancy, abundance, richness and diversity than competition. However, in many cases, it remains unclear whether habitat also mediates processes more subtle than competitive exclusion, such as growth, or whether intra- and interspecific interactions among individuals of different species may be better predictors of size. To test whether habitat traits are a stronger predictor of abundance and body size than intra- and interspecific interactions, we measured the density and body size of three species of larval salamanders in 192 ponds across a landscape. We found that the density of larvae was best predicted by models that included habitat features, while models incorporating interactions among individuals of different species best explained the body size of larvae. Additionally, we found a positive relationship between focal species density and congener density, while focal species body size was negatively related to congener density. We posit that salamander larvae may not experience competitive exclusion and thus reduced densities, but instead compensate for increased competition behaviourally (e.g. reduced foraging), resulting in decreased growth. The discrepancy between larval density and body size, a strong predictor of fitness in this system, also highlights a potential shortcoming in using density or abundance as a metric of habitat quality or population health.

Non-additive effects of intra- and interspecific competition between two larval salamanders.

Assessment of the relative strengths of intra- and interspecific competition has increased in recent years and is critical to understanding the importance of competition. Yet, whether intra- and interspecific competition can have non-additive effects has rarely been tested. The resulting fitness consequences of such non-additive interactions are important to provide the context necessary to advance our understanding of competition theory. We compared the strength of additive and non-additive intra- and interspecific competition by manipulating densities of a pair of larval salamanders (Ambystoma talpoideum and A. maculatum) in experimental mesocosms within a response surface design. Intraspecific density had the strongest effect on the strength of competition for both species, and few observed comparisons indicated interspecific competition was an important factor in predicting body size, growth or larval period length of either species. Non-additive effects of intra- and interspecific competition influenced some response variables, including size and mass at metamorphosis in A. maculatum, but at a reduced strength compared to intraspecific effects alone. Intraspecific competition was thus the dominant biotic interaction, but non-additive effects also impact the outcome of competition in these species, validating the importance of testing for and incorporating non-additive density effects into competition models.

Abundance and phenology patterns of two pond-breeding salamanders determine species interactions in natural populations.

Phenology often determines the outcome of interspecific interactions, where early-arriving species often dominate interactions over those arriving later. The effects of phenology on species interactions are especially pronounced in aquatic systems, but the evidence is largely derived from experimental studies. We examined whether differences in breeding phenology between two pond-breeding salamanders (Ambystoma annulatum and A. maculatum) affected metamorph recruitment and demographic traits within natural populations, with the expectation that the fall-breeding A. annulatum would negatively affect the spring-breeding A. maculatum. We monitored populations of each species at five ponds over 4 years using drift fences. Metamorph abundance and survival of A. annulatum were affected by intra- and interspecific processes, whereas metamorph size and date of emigration were primarily influenced by intraspecific effects. Metamorph abundance, snout-vent length, date of emigration and survival for A. maculatum were all predicted by combinations of intra- and interspecific effects, but often showed negative relationships with A. annulatum metamorph traits and abundance. Size and date of metamorphosis were strongly correlated within each species, but in opposite patterns (negative for A. annulatum and positive for A. maculatum), suggesting that the two species use alternative strategies to enhance terrestrial survival and that these factors may influence their interactions. Our results match predictions from experimental studies that suggest recruitment is influenced by intra- and interspecific processes which are determined by phenological differences between species. Incorporating spatiotemporal variability when modeling population dynamics is necessary to understand the importance of phenology in species interactions, especially as shifts in phenology occur under climate change.

Randomized, controlled trial of an intervention to enable stroke survivors throughout the Los Angeles County safety net to "stay with the guidelines".

BACKGROUND: Stroke is the leading cause of adult disability. Inpatient programs optimize secondary stroke prevention care at the time of hospital discharge, but such care may not be continued after hospital discharge. METHODS: To improve the delivery of secondary stroke preventive services after hospital discharge, we have designed a chronic care model-based program called SUSTAIN (Systemic Use of STroke Averting INterventions). This care intervention includes group clinics, self-management support, report cards, decision support through care guides and protocols, and coordination of ongoing care. The first specific aim is to test, in a randomized, controlled trial, whether SUSTAIN improves blood pressure control among an analytic sample of 268 patients with a recent stroke or transient ischemic attack discharged from 4 Los Angeles County public hospitals. Secondary outcomes consist of control of other stroke risk factors, lifestyle habits, medication adherence, patient perceptions of care quality, functional status, and quality of life. A second specific aim is to conduct a cost analysis of SUSTAIN from the perspective of the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services by using direct costs of the intervention, cost equivalents of associated utilization of county system resources, and cost equivalents of the observed and predicted averted vascular events. CONCLUSIONS: If SUSTAIN is effective, we will have the expertise and findings to advocate for its continued support at Los Angeles County hospitals and to disseminate the SUSTAIN program to other settings serving indigent, minority populations. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00861081.

Bethlem myopathy in a black creole pedigree.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the clinical and molecular features of a distinctive muscular dystrophy in a family of black Creole descent. METHODS: We clinically characterized a four-generation pedigree and performed linkage analysis for all relevant autosomal-dominant muscular dystrophies. RESULTS: Affected family members had minor neurologic dissimilarities from previously reported Bethlem myopathy pedigrees and a high incidence of keloid formation. Multipoint linkage analysis traced the family's disease to the region of the collagen genes COL6A1-COL6A2. CONCLUSIONS: We report that Bethlem myopathy was linked to the collagen VIA1-2 region on chromosome 21q22.3 in a black Creole family. This is the first report of molecular-proven Bethlem myopathy in a family of either Creole or African-American descent. Although the correlation of Bethlem myopathy and keloids was not statistically significant, the possible connection between these two abnormalities raises the possibility of a common pathophysiological link involving collage VIA.