Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Food Safety Risk Management: The Case of Dioxins in Baltic Fish.

The Swedish risk management case of Baltic fatty fishes, in which dioxin levels may be too high, is a typical multidimensional food safety decision problem involving public health, economic, environmental and socio-cultural aspects. To effectively address the dioxin food safety problem, the multiple dimensions and conflicting interests of stakeholders have to be considered systematically when evaluating competing risk management options. The objectives of this study were to illustrate the applicability of the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method for multidimensional food safety risk management problems, and to evaluate the Swedish dioxin risk management using MCDA. The results show that the MCDA method is indeed a relevant tool for modelling the multifactorial Swedish dioxin problem and for initiating discussions amongst stakeholders to increase the acceptance of chosen strategies. Abolishing the derogation from the European Commission's maximum limits for the presence of dioxins in Swedish fish is the dominant strategy for risk assessors, whereas the preferences provided by the other stakeholders would suggest a continuation of the derogation without providing consumer information. However, the preferences of female consumers match with the 2011 decision of the Swedish government to ask for a derogation in combination with consumer information. The conclusion drawn from our MCDA analysis is comparable to the government's decision that-given the gradual reduction in dioxin concentrations in Baltic fish-the decision to continue providing consumer information or not mainly depends on how risk managers balance the preferences of the different stakeholders.

Interactions between risk assessors and risk managers during three major food incidents in Europe.

Risk analysis consists of risk assessment (RA), risk management (RM), and risk communication (RC). In most countries, RA and RM of food safety are separated to achieve a high scientific integrity, and typically occur in sequential order. However, in case of a food safety incident, even though being separate processes, RA and RM are performed simultaneously due to great time pressure and expected high impacts. The aim of this study was to analyze and evaluate the observed interactions between RA and RM processes, during three major food incidents in Europe, and to provide suggestions for possible improvement. Based on the differences observed between the three cases, strengths and weaknesses of each system have been identified. The enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) crisis in 2011 in Germany, the horsemeat scandal in 2013 in Ireland, and the fipronil incident in 2017 in the Netherlands were used as case studies. Timelines of these incidents and crisis management procedures in place in each of the three countries provided the basis for further analysis. First, results showed that details of the communication processes between RA and RM bodies were frequently lacking in crisis management protocols. Second, RA, RM, and RC processes differed for each incident, due to differences in estimated risk for public health, but also due to differences in the organization within a country. Based on our results, we recommend that crisis management protocols should contain a section on communication between RA, RM, and on communication between member states in the EU.

Value of evidence from syndromic surveillance with cumulative evidence from multiple data streams with delayed reporting.

Delayed reporting of health data may hamper the early detection of infectious diseases in surveillance systems. Furthermore, combining multiple data streams, e.g. aiming at improving a system's sensitivity, can be challenging. In this study, we used a Bayesian framework where the result is presented as the value of evidence, i.e. the likelihood ratio for the evidence under outbreak versus baseline conditions. Based on a historical data set of routinely collected cattle mortality events, we evaluated outbreak detection performance (sensitivity, time to detection, in-control run length) under the Bayesian approach among three scenarios: presence of delayed data reporting, but not accounting for it; presence of delayed data reporting accounted for; and absence of delayed data reporting (i.e. an ideal system). Performance on larger and smaller outbreaks was compared with a classical approach, considering syndromes separately or combined. We found that the Bayesian approach performed better than the classical approach, especially for the smaller outbreaks. Furthermore, the Bayesian approach performed similarly well in the scenario where delayed reporting was accounted for to the scenario where it was absent. We argue that the value of evidence framework may be suitable for surveillance systems with multiple syndromes and delayed reporting of data.

Early detection of West Nile virus in France: quantitative assessment of syndromic surveillance system using nervous signs in horses.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a growing public health concern in Europe and there is a need to develop more efficient early detection systems. Nervous signs in horses are considered to be an early indicator of WNV and, using them in a syndromic surveillance system, might be relevant. In our study, we assessed whether or not data collected by the passive French surveillance system for the surveillance of equine diseases can be used routinely for the detection of WNV. We tested several pre-processing methods and detection algorithms based on regression. We evaluated system performances using simulated and authentic data and compared them to those of the surveillance system currently in place. Our results show that the current detection algorithm provided similar performances to those tested using simulated and real data. However, regression models can be easily and better adapted to surveillance objectives. The detection performances obtained were compatible with the early detection of WNV outbreaks in France (i.e. sensitivity 98%, specificity >94%, timeliness 2·5 weeks and around four false alarms per year) but further work is needed to determine the most suitable alarm threshold for WNV surveillance in France using cost-efficiency analysis.

Comparison of manual and automatic sampling for monitoring ochratoxin A in barley grain.

Automatic and manual sampling for ochratoxin A (OTA) in barley grain was compared under industrial conditions considering sampling uncertainty as well as practical and technical aspects. Ten tonnes of barley inoculated with Penicillium verrucosum were incubated until the OTA concentration reached approximately 15 µg kg(-1) and sampled with manual and automatic sampling. A nested experimental design and ANOVA was used to estimate variance components from sampling, sample reduction, sample preparation and analysis. Manual sampling resulted in a high sampling uncertainty and OTA concentrations in aggregate samples ranged from 2 to 80 µg kg(-1). When aggregate samples were formed by automatic sampling the uncertainty arising from nugget effects and spatial distribution was practically eliminated. Results from this study show that an automatic sampler mounted after a mixer or conveyer can provide representative samples of OTA from a moving stream of barley. Automatic sampling might present a practical and economical alternative to manual sampling for feed mill operators when monitoring low levels of mycotoxins in grain or other commodities. Despite careful precautions, sample preparation and analysis resulted in a relative uncertainty of ±40% (p = 0.95), which was attributed to the sub-sampling following the two grinding steps. Size fractionation of the coarsely ground barley showed that 40% of the total amount of OTA was present in a small fraction of fine particles with a strong tendency to aggregate or stick to equipment and containers. Thus, in order to take advantage of the automatic sampling, it is crucial to apply an appropriate sub-sampling to prevent segregation of particles which may affect the OTA measurements.