Human resource challenges in health systems: evidence from ten African countries.

Sub-Saharan Africa has fewer medical workers per capita than any region of the world, and that shortage has been highlighted consistently as a critical constraint to improving health outcomes in the region. This paper draws on newly available, systematic, comparable data from ten countries in the region to explore the dimensions of this shortage. We find wide variation in human resources performance metrics, both within and across countries. Many facilities are barely staffed, and effective staffing levels fall further when adjusted for health worker absences. However, caseloads-while also varying widely within and across countries-are also low in many settings, suggesting that even within countries, deployment rather than shortages, together with barriers to demand, may be the principal challenges. Beyond raw numbers, we observe significant proportions of health workers with very low levels of clinical knowledge on standard maternal and child health conditions. This work demonstrates that countries may need to invest broadly in health workforce deployment, improvements in capacity and performance of the health workforce, and on addressing demand constraints, rather than focusing narrowly on increases in staffing numbers.

The experience of fathers during the covid-19 UK maternity care restrictions.

OBJECTIVE: During the COVID-19 pandemic fathers in the UK were excluded from many aspects of maternity care to reduce escalating transmission rates. This study explores the experiences of fathers who had a baby during the pandemic to understand what effect these maternity restrictions had on them and their relationship to the baby. DESIGN: A qualitative interview study of the experiences of fathers whose baby was born during the pandemic-related UK maternity restrictions. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Non-probability voluntary response sampling of 20 fathers: including 13 primiparous fathers and 7 multiparous fathers. Eligibility criteria were that fathers lived in the UK and had a baby born on or after the 23rd March 2020; the start of the most severe COVID-19 maternity restrictions. Participants were interviewed remotely via telephone using semi-structured interviews which were transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis. FINDINGS: Four themes, including ten sub-themes, were identified that described fathers' experiences of the maternity restrictions and the father-baby relationship. The themes were: (1) The impact on paternal experience: this theme describes a collective negative paternal maternity experience as a result of the restrictions. Notably, father exclusion produced feelings of isolation and a sense of loss, along with a disconnection from the pregnancy. (2) The impact on the father-baby relationship: this theme discusses the adverse consequence of the restrictions on initial father-baby bonding. (3) Observed impact on mothers: the observed detrimental impact that excluding fathers had on maternal mental health and well-being. Finally, (4) Fatherhood in the 'new normal': the change of daily living during the pandemic aided profound family relationship building, improving long-term father-baby bonding, compared to pre-pandemic conditions. KEY CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide evidence of undesirable consequences the pandemic-related UK maternity restrictions had on birth partners. With restrictions to maternity care implemented across the globe, these concerns may be applicable at an international scale. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This study adds to other contemporary literature on this subject and can inform discussion among maternity services of the importance of including fathers for improved parental well-being and initial infant bonding.

Contraceptive Counseling in the Postpartum Period: Could Pediatricians Have a Role?

INTRODUCTION: Unplanned pregnancies lead to adverse health outcomes and contribute to economic burdens. A lack of continuity and consistency in immediate postpartum care may be a contributor. The most frequent postpartum medical encounters occur with the child's pediatric health care provider, which represents an opportunity to discuss postpartum contraception. Therefore, our objective was to evaluate postpartum family planning knowledge and behavior in women, and to assess the potential acceptability of a pediatrician-delivered intervention to improve knowledge of and convenient access to contraception among postpartum women. METHODS: This was a non-interventional pilot study that employed survey and interview methodology. RESULTS: Women attending pediatric visits for their newborn or infant (N = 346) were surveyed; 35 were interviewed. On average, respondents were 27 years old (SD = 6), 6 months postpartum (SD = 5), and resumed sex 8 weeks after delivery (SD = 6). Of those who had resumed sex, 68% were not using contraception at the time. However, only 18% of survey respondents wanted to have another child. Few exhibited accurate knowledge of birth spacing or long acting reversible contraception. Most interviewees (86%) supported the idea of pediatricians providing contraceptive counseling. Concerns identified included whether it was "allowable" and pediatrician's lack of knowledge of complex maternal health histories. DISCUSSION: This study highlights a gap between contraceptive need and provision in postpartum women. However, the findings suggest women's willingness to engage in conversations with their child's pediatrician about family planning. Future research should assess the feasibility and impact of integrating postpartum counseling into pediatric visits.

Financial Support to Medicaid-Eligible Mothers Increases Caregiving for Preterm Infants.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of financial support on maternal caregiving activities for preterm infants. METHODS: We conducted a small randomized controlled trial (RCT) in two Massachusetts Neonatal Intensive Care Units (NICUs). We enrolled 46 Medicaid-eligible mothers of preterm infants between January 2017 and June 2018 and randomly assigned them to a treatment group (up to 3 weekly financial transfers of $200 each while their infant was in the hospital) or a control group. We collected hospital-record data while the infant was admitted. The primary outcome was a binary variable indicating skin-to-skin care (STSC) was provided during a hospital day. Secondary outcomes included daily maternal visitation, daily provision of breastmilk, neonatal growth and length of stay (LOS). Multilevel generalized linear models with random effects were used to estimate treatment effects on daily maternal behaviors and ordinary least squares models were used to estimate impacts on neonatal growth and LOS. RESULTS: We assigned 25 women to the intervention and 21 to the control and observed them over 703 days of their infants' hospitalization. Mothers who received financial support were more likely to provide STSC (adjusted risk ratio: 1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-2.62) and breastmilk (adjusted risk ratio: 1.36; 95% CI 1.06-1.75) while their infant was in the NICU. We see no statistically significant impact on neonatal growth outcomes or LOS, though estimated confidence intervals are imprecise. CONCLUSIONS: Our evidence demonstrates the potential for financial support to increase mothers' engagement with caregiving behaviors for preterm infants during the NICU stay.

Caregiving can be costly: A qualitative study of barriers and facilitators to conducting kangaroo mother care in a US tertiary hospital neonatal intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children under five and often requires a newborn to have an extended stay in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Maternal engagement, such as visiting the NICU to provide kangaroo mother care (KMC), can improve outcomes for preterm infants but requires significant investment of time and resources. This study sought to understand barriers and facilitators to provision of KMC in the NICU. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews with mothers of preterm infants (N = 20) at a large academic medical center in Massachusetts. A series of open-ended interview questions were designed to elicit all aspects of mothers' experiences and to understand how these experiences influence provision of KMC. All interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. We conducted an inductive thematic analysis to identify themes in the data with a focus on the barriers and facilitators of KMC provision in the NICU. RESULTS: Findings show that engaging in KMC is heavily influenced by the mental, emotional, and physical effects of preterm birth on the birth mother, such as stress around preterm birth and difficulty recovering from birth. These challenges are compounded by structural barriers such as costly accommodations, unreliable transportation, lack of child care, and inadequate maternity leave policies that limit the frequency and duration of KMC and parental ability to provide care. CONCLUSIONS: A complex array of mental, emotional, physical, and structural factors determine a mother's ability to visit the NICU and provide kangaroo mother care. Providing social supports, such as improved maternity leave policies and reliable hospital access through child care, accommodation, and transportation services, may address the structural barriers that inhibit KMC, reduce burdensome costs, and improve the health of mothers and their preterm infants.

Correction: Global, Regional, and National Consumption of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, Fruit Juices, and Milk: A Systematic Assessment of Beverage Intake in 187 Countries.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0124845.].

Lifetime economic impact of the burden of childhood stunting attributable to maternal psychosocial risk factors in 137 low/middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: The first 1000 days of life is a period of great potential and vulnerability. In particular, physical growth of children can be affected by the lack of access to basic needs as well as psychosocial factors, such as maternal depression. The objectives of the present study are to: (1) quantify the burden of childhood stunting in low/middle-income countries attributable to psychosocial risk factors; and (2) estimate the related lifetime economic costs. METHODS: A comparative risk assessment analysis was performed with data from 137 low/middle-income countries throughout Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, North Africa and the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of stunting prevalence, defined as <-2 SDs from the median height for age according to the WHO Child Growth Standards, and the number of cases attributable to low maternal education, intimate partner violence (IPV), maternal depression and orphanhood were calculated. The joint effect of psychosocial risk factors on stunting was estimated. The economic impact, as reflected in the total future income losses per birth cohort, was examined. RESULTS: Approximately 7.2 million cases of stunting in low/middle-income countries were attributable to psychosocial factors. The leading risk factor was maternal depression with 3.2 million cases attributable. Maternal depression also demonstrated the greatest economic cost at $14.5 billion, followed by low maternal education ($10.0 billion) and IPV ($8.5 billion). The joint cost of these risk factors was $29.3 billion per birth cohort. CONCLUSION: The cost of neglecting these psychosocial risk factors is significant. Improving access to formal secondary school education for girls may offset the risk of maternal depression, IPV and orphanhood. Focusing on maternal depression may play a key role in reducing the burden of stunting. Overall, addressing psychosocial factors among perinatal women can have a significant impact on child growth and well-being in the developing world.

Overall and Sex-Specific Associations Between Fetal Adversity and Child Development at Age 1 Year: Evidence From Brazil.

A growing body of epigenetic research suggests that in-utero adaptations to environmental changes display important sex-specific variation. We tested this heterogeneous adaptation hypothesis using data from 900 children born at the University Hospital in São Paulo, Brazil, between October 2013 and April 2014. Crude and adjusting linear models were used to quantify the associations between prematurity, being small for gestational age, and children's physical and mental development at 12 months of age. Prematurity was negatively associated with neuropsychological development in final models (z score difference, -0.42, 95% confidence intervals: -0.71, -0.14), but associations did not vary significantly by sex. For being small for gestational age, associations with height-for-age, weight-for-age, and neuropsychological development were also negative, but they were systematically larger for male than for female infants (P < 0.05 for all). These results suggest that male fetuses may be more vulnerable to intrauterine adversity than female fetuses. Further research will be needed to better understand the mechanisms underlying these sex-specific associations.

Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The pathway from evidence generation to consumption contains many steps which can lead to overstatement or misinformation. The proliferation of internet-based health news may encourage selection of media and academic research articles that overstate strength of causal inference. We investigated the state of causal inference in health research as it appears at the end of the pathway, at the point of social media consumption. METHODS: We screened the NewsWhip Insights database for the most shared media articles on Facebook and Twitter reporting about peer-reviewed academic studies associating an exposure with a health outcome in 2015, extracting the 50 most-shared academic articles and media articles covering them. We designed and utilized a review tool to systematically assess and summarize studies' strength of causal inference, including generalizability, potential confounders, and methods used. These were then compared with the strength of causal language used to describe results in both academic and media articles. Two randomly assigned independent reviewers and one arbitrating reviewer from a pool of 21 reviewers assessed each article. RESULTS: We accepted the most shared 64 media articles pertaining to 50 academic articles for review, representing 68% of Facebook and 45% of Twitter shares in 2015. Thirty-four percent of academic studies and 48% of media articles used language that reviewers considered too strong for their strength of causal inference. Seventy percent of academic studies were considered low or very low strength of inference, with only 6% considered high or very high strength of causal inference. The most severe issues with academic studies' causal inference were reported to be omitted confounding variables and generalizability. Fifty-eight percent of media articles were found to have inaccurately reported the question, results, intervention, or population of the academic study. CONCLUSIONS: We find a large disparity between the strength of language as presented to the research consumer and the underlying strength of causal inference among the studies most widely shared on social media. However, because this sample was designed to be representative of the articles selected and shared on social media, it is unlikely to be representative of all academic and media work. More research is needed to determine how academic institutions, media organizations, and social network sharing patterns impact causal inference and language as received by the research consumer.

Time to change focus? Transitioning from higher neonatal to higher stillbirth mortality in São Paulo State, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Differential trends in mortality suggest that stillbirths may dominate neonatal mortality in the medium to long run. Brazil has made major efforts to improve data collection on health indicators at granular geographic levels, and provides an ideal environment to test this hypothesis. Our goals were to examine levels and trends in stillbirths and neonatal deaths and the extent to which the mortality burden caused by stillbirths dominates neonatal mortality at the municipality- and state-level. METHODS: We used data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health's repository on births, fetal, and neonatal deaths (2010-2014) to calculate stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates for São Paulo state's 645 municipalities. RESULTS: At the state level, 7.9 per 1000 pregnancies ended in stillbirth (fetal death >22 weeks gestation or fetal weight >500g), but this varied from 0.0 to 28.4 per 1000 across municipalities. 7.9 per 1000 live births also died within the first 28 days. 42% of municipalities had a higher stillbirth rate than neonatal mortality rate, and in 61% of areas with low neonatal mortality (<8.0 per 1000), stillbirth rates exceeded neonatal mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests large variability and inequality in mortality outcomes at the sub-national level. The results also imply that stillbirth mortality may exceed neonatal mortality in Brazil and similar settings in the next few decades, which suggests a need for a shift in policy. This work further underscores the importance of continued research into causes and prevention of stillbirth.

Harmonization of community health worker programs for HIV: A four-country qualitative study in Southern Africa.

BACKGROUND: Community health worker (CHW) programs are believed to be poorly coordinated, poorly integrated into national health systems, and lacking long-term support. Duplication of services, fragmentation, and resource limitations may have impeded the potential impact of CHWs for achieving HIV goals. This study assesses mediators of a more harmonized approach to implementing large-scale CHW programs for HIV in the context of complex health systems and multiple donors. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We undertook four country case studies in Lesotho, Mozambique, South Africa, and Swaziland between August 2015 and May 2016. We conducted 60 semistructured interviews with donors, government officials, and expert observers involved in CHW programs delivering HIV services. Interviews were triangulated with published literature, country reports, national health plans, and policies. Data were analyzed based on 3 priority areas of harmonization (coordination, integration, and sustainability) and 5 components of a conceptual framework (the health issue, intervention, stakeholders, health system, and context) to assess facilitators and barriers to harmonization of CHW programs. CHWs supporting HIV programs were found to be highly fragmented and poorly integrated into national health systems. Stakeholders generally supported increasing harmonization, although they recognized several challenges and disadvantages to harmonization. Key facilitators to harmonization included (i) a large existing national CHW program and recognition of nongovernmental CHW programs, (ii) use of common incentives and training processes for CHWs, (iii) existence of an organizational structure dedicated to community health initiatives, and (iv) involvement of community leaders in decision-making. Key barriers included a wide range of stakeholders and lack of ownership and accountability of non-governmental CHW programs. Limitations of our study include subjectively selected case studies, our focus on decision-makers, and limited generalizability beyond the countries analyzed. CONCLUSION: CHW programs for HIV in Southern Africa are fragmented, poorly integrated, and lack long-term support. We provide 5 policy recommendations to harmonize CHW programs in order to strengthen and sustain the role of CHWs in HIV service delivery.

Risk Factors for Childhood Stunting in 137 Developing Countries: A Comparative Risk Assessment Analysis at Global, Regional, and Country Levels.

BACKGROUND: Stunting affects one-third of children under 5 y old in developing countries, and 14% of childhood deaths are attributable to it. A large number of risk factors for stunting have been identified in epidemiological studies. However, the relative contribution of these risk factors to stunting has not been examined across countries. We estimated the number of stunting cases among children aged 24-35 mo (i.e., at the end of the 1,000 days' period of vulnerability) that are attributable to 18 risk factors in 137 developing countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We classified risk factors into five clusters: maternal nutrition and infection, teenage motherhood and short birth intervals, fetal growth restriction (FGR) and preterm birth, child nutrition and infection, and environmental factors. We combined published estimates and individual-level data from population-based surveys to derive risk factor prevalence in each country in 2010 and identified the most recent meta-analysis or conducted de novo reviews to derive effect sizes. We estimated the prevalence of stunting and the number of stunting cases that were attributable to each risk factor and cluster of risk factors by country and region. The leading risk worldwide was FGR, defined as being term and small for gestational age, and 10.8 million cases (95% CI 9.1 million-12.6 million) of stunting (out of 44.1 million) were attributable to it, followed by unimproved sanitation, with 7.2 million (95% CI 6.3 million-8.2 million), and diarrhea with 5.8 million (95% CI 2.4 million-9.2 million). FGR and preterm birth was the leading risk factor cluster in all regions. Environmental risks had the second largest estimated impact on stunting globally and in the South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia and Pacific regions, whereas child nutrition and infection was the second leading cluster of risk factors in other regions. Although extensive, our analysis is limited to risk factors for which effect sizes and country-level exposure data were available. The global nature of the study required approximations (e.g., using exposures estimated among women of reproductive age as a proxy for maternal exposures, or estimating the impact of risk factors on stunting through a mediator rather than directly on stunting). Finally, as is standard in global risk factor analyses, we used the effect size of risk factors on stunting from meta-analyses of epidemiological studies and assumed that proportional effects were fairly similar across countries. CONCLUSIONS: FGR and unimproved sanitation are the leading risk factors for stunting in developing countries. Reducing the burden of stunting requires a paradigm shift from interventions focusing solely on children and infants to those that reach mothers and families and improve their living environment and nutrition.

Schooling and wage income losses due to early-childhood growth faltering in developing countries: national, regional, and global estimates.

BACKGROUND: The growth of >300 million children <5 y old was mildly, moderately, or severely stunted worldwide in 2010. However, national estimates of the human capital and financial losses due to growth faltering in early childhood are not available. OBJECTIVE: We quantified the economic cost of growth faltering in developing countries. DESIGN: We combined the most recent country-level estimates of linear growth delays from the Nutrition Impact Model Study with estimates of returns to education in developing countries to estimate the impact of early-life growth faltering on educational attainment and future incomes. Primary outcomes were total years of educational attainment lost as well as the net present value of future wage earnings lost per child and birth cohort due to growth faltering in 137 developing countries. Bootstrapped standard errors were computed to account for uncertainty in modeling inputs. RESULTS: Our estimates suggest that early-life growth faltering in developing countries caused a total loss of 69.4 million y of educational attainment (95% CI: 41.7 million, 92.6 million y) per birth cohort. Educational attainment losses were largest in South Asia (27.6 million y; 95% CI: 20.0 million, 35.8 million y) as well as in Eastern (10.3 million y; 95% CI: 7.2 million, 12.9 million y) and Western sub-Saharan Africa (8.8 million y; 95% CI: 6.4 million, 11.5 million y). Globally, growth faltering in developing countries caused a total economic cost of $176.8 billion (95% CI: $100.9 billion, $262.6 billion)/birth cohort at nominal exchange rates, and $616.5 billion (95% CI: $365.3 billion, $898.9 billion) at purchasing power parity-adjusted exchange rates. At the regional level, economic costs were largest in South Asia ($46.6 billion; 95% CI: $33.3 billion, $61.1 billion), followed by Latin America ($44.7 billion; 95% CI: $19.2 billion, $74.6 billion) and sub-Saharan Africa ($34.2 billion; 95% CI: $24.4 billion, $45.3 billion). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the annual cost of early-childhood growth faltering is substantial. Further investment in scaling up effective interventions in this area is urgently needed and likely to yield long run benefits of $3 for every $1 invested.

Missed opportunities to deliver intermittent preventive treatment for malaria to pregnant women 2003-2013: a systematic analysis of 58 household surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of effective preventive measures, including intermittent preventive treatment for malaria during pregnancy (IPTp), malaria continues to cause substantial disease burden among pregnant women in malaria-endemic areas. IPTp coverage remains low, despite high antenatal care (ANC) attendance. To highlight areas of potential improvement, trends in IPTp coverage were assessed over time, missed opportunities to deliver IPTp at ANC were quantified, and delivery of IPTp was compared to that of tetanus toxoid (TT). METHODS: Data from 58 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2003 and 2013 in 31 sub-Saharan African countries, with relevant questions on IPTp, ANC and TT were used to assess ANC attendance, and IPTp and TT delivery. A missed opportunity for IPTp delivery is an ANC visit at which IPTp could have been delivered according to policy but was not. RESULTS: The proportion of pregnant women who received ≥2 doses of IPTp increased in surveyed countries from nearly zero before to a median of 29.6% (IQR 20.1-42.5%) seven or more years after IPTp policy adoption. ANC attendance was high (median 76.6% reported ≥3 visits); however, even seven or more years post policy adoption, a median of 72.9% (IQR 58.4-79.5%) ANC visits were missed opportunities to deliver IPTp. Among primigravid women, a median of 61.5% (IQR 50.9-72.9%) received two doses of TT; delivery of recommended TT exceeded IPTp in all but one surveyed country. CONCLUSIONS: IPTp coverage measured by household surveys is unsatisfactorily low, even many years after policy adoption. The many missed opportunities to deliver IPTp suggest that deficiencies in delivery at ANC are a significant contributing factor to the low coverage levels. High levels of TT delivery indicate capacity to deliver preventive measures at ANC. Further research is required to determine the factors driving the discrepancies between IPTp and TT coverage, and how these may be addressed to improve IPTp coverage.

Global, regional and national consumption of major food groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis including 266 country-specific nutrition surveys worldwide.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify global intakes of key foods related to non-communicable diseases in adults by region (n=21), country (n=187), age and sex, in 1990 and 2010. DESIGN: We searched and obtained individual-level intake data in 16 age/sex groups worldwide from 266 surveys across 113 countries. We combined these data with food balance sheets available in all nations and years. A hierarchical Bayesian model estimated mean food intake and associated uncertainty for each age-sex-country-year stratum, accounting for differences in intakes versus availability, survey methods and representativeness, and sampling and modelling uncertainty. SETTING/POPULATION: Global adult population, by age, sex, country and time. RESULTS: In 2010, global fruit intake was 81.3 g/day (95% uncertainty interval 78.9-83.7), with country-specific intakes ranging from 19.2-325.1 g/day; in only 2 countries (representing 0.4% of the world's population), mean intakes met recommended targets of ≥300 g/day. Country-specific vegetable intake ranged from 34.6-493.1 g/day (global mean=208.8 g/day); corresponding values for nuts/seeds were 0.2-152.7 g/day (8.9 g/day); for whole grains, 1.3-334.3 g/day (38.4 g/day); for seafood, 6.0-87.6 g/day (27.9 g/day); for red meats, 3.0-124.2 g/day (41.8 g/day); and for processed meats, 2.5-66.1 g/day (13.7 g/day). Mean national intakes met recommended targets in countries representing 0.4% of the global population for vegetables (≥400 g/day); 9.6% for nuts/seeds (≥4 (28.35 g) servings/week); 7.6% for whole grains (≥2.5 (50 g) servings/day); 4.4% for seafood (≥3.5 (100 g) servings/week); 20.3% for red meats (≤1 (100 g) serving/week); and 38.5% for processed meats (≤1 (50 g) serving/week). Intakes of healthful foods were generally higher and of less healthful foods generally lower at older ages. Intakes were generally similar by sex. Vegetable, seafood and processed meat intakes were stable over time; fruits, nuts/seeds and red meat, increased; and whole grains, decreased. CONCLUSIONS: These global dietary data by nation, age and sex identify key challenges and opportunities for optimising diets, informing policies and priorities for improving global health.

Global, Regional, and National Consumption of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, Fruit Juices, and Milk: A Systematic Assessment of Beverage Intake in 187 Countries.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), fruit juice, and milk are components of diet of major public health interest. To-date, assessment of their global distributions and health impacts has been limited by insufficient comparable and reliable data by country, age, and sex. OBJECTIVE: To quantify global, regional, and national levels of SSB, fruit juice, and milk intake by age and sex in adults over age 20 in 2010. METHODS: We identified, obtained, and assessed data on intakes of these beverages in adults, by age and sex, from 193 nationally- or subnationally-representative diet surveys worldwide, representing over half the world's population. We also extracted data relevant to milk, fruit juice, and SSB availability for 187 countries from annual food balance information collected by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to account for measurement incomparability, study representativeness, and sampling and modeling uncertainty, and to combine and harmonize nationally representative dietary survey data and food availability data. RESULTS: In 2010, global average intakes were 0.58 (95%UI: 0.37, 0.89) 8 oz servings/day for SSBs, 0.16 (0.10, 0.26) for fruit juice, and 0.57 (0.39, 0.83) for milk. There was significant heterogeneity in consumption of each beverage by region and age. Intakes of SSB were highest in the Caribbean (1.9 servings/day; 1.2, 3.0); fruit juice consumption was highest in Australia and New Zealand (0.66; 0.35, 1.13); and milk intake was highest in Central Latin America and parts of Europe (1.06; 0.68, 1.59). Intakes of all three beverages were lowest in East Asia and Oceania. Globally and within regions, SSB consumption was highest in younger adults; fruit juice consumption showed little relation with age; and milk intakes were highest in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis highlights the enormous spectrum of beverage intakes worldwide, by country, age, and sex. These data are valuable for highlighting gaps in dietary surveillance, determining the impacts of these beverages on global health, and targeting dietary policy.

Linear growth and child development in low- and middle-income countries: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The initial years of life are critical for physical growth and broader cognitive, motor, and socioemotional development, but the magnitude of the link between these processes remains unclear. Our objective was to produce quantitative estimates of the cross-sectional and prospective association of height-for-age z score (HAZ) with child development. METHODS: Observational studies conducted in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) presenting data on the relationship of linear growth with any measure of child development among children <12 years of age were identified from a systematic search of PubMed, Embase, and PsycINFO. Two reviewers then extracted these data by using a standardized form. RESULTS: A total of 68 published studies conducted in 29 LMICs were included in the final database. The pooled adjusted standardized mean difference in cross-sectional cognitive ability per unit increase in HAZ for children ≤ 2 years old was +0.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14-0.33; I(2) = 53%) and +0.09 for children > 2 years old (95% CI, 0.05-0.12; I(2) = 78%). Prospectively, each unit increase in HAZ for children ≤ 2 years old was associated with a +0.22-SD increase in cognition at 5 to 11 years after multivariate adjustment (95% CI, 0.17-0.27; I(2) = 0%). HAZ was also significantly associated with earlier walking age and better motor scores (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Observational evidence suggests a robust positive association between linear growth during the first 2 years of life with cognitive and motor development. Effective interventions that reduce linear growth restriction may improve developmental outcomes; however, integration with environmental, educational, and stimulation interventions may produce larger positive effects.

Global, regional, and national consumption levels of dietary fats and oils in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis including 266 country-specific nutrition surveys.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify global consumption of key dietary fats and oils by country, age, and sex in 1990 and 2010. DESIGN: Data were identified, obtained, and assessed among adults in 16 age- and sex-specific groups from dietary surveys worldwide on saturated, omega 6, seafood omega 3, plant omega 3, and trans fats, and dietary cholesterol. We included 266 surveys in adults (83% nationally representative) comprising 1,630,069 unique individuals, representing 113 of 187 countries and 82% of the global population. A multilevel hierarchical Bayesian model accounted for differences in national and regional levels of missing data, measurement incomparability, study representativeness, and sampling and modelling uncertainty. SETTING AND POPULATION: Global adult population, by age, sex, country, and time. RESULTS: In 2010, global saturated fat consumption was 9.4%E (95%UI=9.2 to 9.5); country-specific intakes varied dramatically from 2.3 to 27.5%E; in 75 of 187 countries representing 61.8% of the world's adult population, the mean intake was <10%E. Country-specific omega 6 consumption ranged from 1.2 to 12.5%E (global mean=5.9%E); corresponding range was 0.2 to 6.5%E (1.4%E) for trans fat; 97 to 440 mg/day (228 mg/day) for dietary cholesterol; 5 to 3,886 mg/day (163 mg/day) for seafood omega 3; and <100 to 5,542 mg/day (1,371 mg/day) for plant omega 3. Countries representing 52.4% of the global population had national mean intakes for omega 6 fat ≥ 5%E; corresponding proportions meeting optimal intakes were 0.6% for trans fat (≤ 0.5%E); 87.6% for dietary cholesterol (<300 mg/day); 18.9% for seafood omega 3 fat (≥ 250 mg/day); and 43.9% for plant omega 3 fat (≥ 1,100 mg/day). Trans fat intakes were generally higher at younger ages; and dietary cholesterol and seafood omega 3 fats generally higher at older ages. Intakes were similar by sex. Between 1990 and 2010, global saturated fat, dietary cholesterol, and trans fat intakes remained stable, while omega 6, seafood omega 3, and plant omega 3 fat intakes each increased. CONCLUSIONS: These novel global data on dietary fats and oils identify dramatic diversity across nations and inform policies and priorities for improving global health.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. METHODS: We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. FINDINGS: In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. INTERPRETATION: Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). METHODS: Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. FINDINGS: Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION: Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.