Associations between toxicity-weighted concentrations and dementia risk: Results from the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is a modifiable risk factor for dementia. Yet, studies on specific sources of air pollution (i.e., toxic chemical emissions from industrial facilities) and dementia risk are scarce. We examined associations between toxicity-weighted concentrations of industrial pollution and dementia outcomes among a large, multi-site cohort of older adults. METHODS: Participants (n = 2770) were ≥ 65 years old (Mean = 75.3, SD = 5.1 years) from the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study (1992-1999). Toxicity-weighted concentrations were estimated using the Risk Screening Environmental Indicator (RSEI) model which incorporates total reported chemical emissions with toxicity, fate, and transport models. Estimates were aggregated to participants' baseline census tract, averaged across 1988-1992, and log2-transformed. Dementia status was clinically adjudicated in 1998-1999 and categorized by subtype (Alzheimer's, vascular, mixed). We assessed whether RSEI-estimated toxicity-weighted concentrations were associated with 1) odds of prevalent dementia and 2) incident dementia risk by subtype. RESULTS: After adjusting for individual and census-tract level covariates, a doubling in toxicity-weighted concentrations was associated with 9 % higher odds of prevalent dementia (OR = 1.09, 95 % CI: 1.00, 1.19). In discrete-time survival models, each doubling in toxicity-weighted concentrations was associated with a 16 % greater hazard of vascular dementia (HR = 1.16, 95 % CI: 1.01, 1.34) but was not significantly associated with all-cause, Alzheimer's disease, or mixed dementia (p's > 0.05). DISCUSSION: Living in regions with higher toxicity-weighted concentrations was associated with higher odds of prevalent dementia and a higher risk of incident vascular dementia in this large, community-based cohort of older adults. These findings support the need for additional studies to examine whether toxic chemical emissions from industrial and federal facilities may be a modifiable target for dementia prevention.

Examining the Causal Mediating Role of Cardiovascular Disease on the Effect of Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease on Cognitive Impairment via Separable Effects.

BACKGROUND: An important epidemiological question is understanding how vascular risk factors contribute to cognitive impairment. Using data from the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study, we investigated how subclinical cardiovascular disease (sCVD) relates to cognitive impairment risk and the extent to which the hypothesized risk is mediated by the incidence of clinically manifested cardiovascular disease (CVD), both overall and within apolipoprotein E-4 (APOE-4) subgroups. METHODS: We adopted a novel "separable effects" causal mediation framework that assumes that sCVD has separably intervenable atherosclerosis-related components. We then ran several mediation models, adjusting for key covariates. RESULTS: We found that sCVD increased overall risk of cognitive impairment (risk ratio [RR] = 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03, 1.44); however, there was little or no mediation by incident clinically manifested CVD (indirect effect RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.03). We also found attenuated effects among APOE-4 carriers (total effect RR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.81, 1.47; indirect effect RR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.01) and stronger findings among noncarriers (total effect RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.60; indirect effect RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.05). In secondary analyses restricting cognitive impairment to only incident dementia cases, we found similar effect patterns. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the effect of sCVD on cognitive impairment does not seem to be mediated by CVD, both overall and within APOE-4 subgroups. Our results were critically assessed via sensitivity analyses, and they were found to be robust. Future work is needed to fully understand the relationship between sCVD, CVD, and cognitive impairment.

Insights into the Cross-world Independence Assumption of Causal Mediation Analysis.

Causal mediation analysis is a useful tool for epidemiologic research, but it has been criticized for relying on a "cross-world" independence assumption that counterfactual outcome and mediator values are independent even in causal worlds where the exposure assignments for the outcome and mediator differ. This assumption is empirically difficult to verify and problematic to justify based on background knowledge. In the present article, we aim to assist the applied researcher in understanding this assumption. Synthesizing what is known about the cross-world independence assumption, we discuss the relationship between assumptions for causal mediation analyses, causal models, and nonparametric identification of natural direct and indirect effects. In particular, we give a practical example of an applied setting where the cross-world independence assumption is violated even without any post-treatment confounding. Further, we review possible alternatives to the cross-world independence assumption, including the use of bounds that avoid the assumption altogether. Finally, we carry out a numeric study in which the cross-world independence assumption is violated to assess the ensuing bias in estimating natural direct and indirect effects. We conclude with recommendations for carrying out causal mediation analyses.

Using Cognitive Intraindividual Variability to Measure Intervention Effectiveness: Results from the Baltimore Experience Corps Trial.

OBJECTIVES: Studies investigating the effectiveness of intervention programs on cognitive ability in older adults are inconsistent; however, these studies generally focus on traditional measures of cognition, and therefore may miss some improvements by not utilizing alternate measures. We evaluate the potential for intraindividual variability in cognitive speed (IIV), a demonstrated sensitive indicator of cognitive functioning, to be used as an index of cognitive plasticity from an intervention. The current study evaluated whether older adults in a school volunteering program showed a reduction in IIV, compared to a low-activity control group over 2 years of exposure. METHOD: Nondemented older adults (n = 336) participated in the Baltimore Experience Corps Trial, an evaluation of a volunteering program conducted at elementary schools designed to increase older adults' physical, cognitive, and social engagement. Participants completed a cognitive battery that included a Stroop task at baseline and after 12 and 24 months. RESULTS: Traditional intent-to-treat analyses did not report significant improvements. Participants who complied at the 80th percentile or above showed a significant reduction in IIV at 24 months, with an additional trend of improved IIV with increased compliance to the treatment protocol, both at 12 months, and at 24 months. Men also showed dose-dependent improvements after 12 months. DISCUSSION: The Experience Corps program resulted in an improvement in cognitive performance as measured by IIV. Analyzing previously collected data with nontraditional measures of cognition, such as IIV, may be a potentially fruitful and cost-effective method for understanding how interventions impact cognition in aging populations.

Examining the causal mediating role of brain pathology on the relationship between diabetes and cognitive impairment: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

The paper examines whether diabetes mellitus leads to incident mild cognitive impairment and dementia through brain hypoperfusion and white matter disease. We performed inverse odds ratio weighted causal mediation analyses to decompose the effect of diabetes on cognitive impairment into direct and indirect effects, and we found that approximately a third of the total effect of diabetes is mediated through vascular-related brain pathology. Our findings lend support for a common aetiological hypothesis regarding incident cognitive impairment, which is that diabetes increases the risk of clinical cognitive impairment in part by impacting the vasculature of the brain.

Brain and blood metabolite signatures of pathology and progression in Alzheimer disease: A targeted metabolomics study.

BACKGROUND: The metabolic basis of Alzheimer disease (AD) is poorly understood, and the relationships between systemic abnormalities in metabolism and AD pathogenesis are unclear. Understanding how global perturbations in metabolism are related to severity of AD neuropathology and the eventual expression of AD symptoms in at-risk individuals is critical to developing effective disease-modifying treatments. In this study, we undertook parallel metabolomics analyses in both the brain and blood to identify systemic correlates of neuropathology and their associations with prodromal and preclinical measures of AD progression. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Quantitative and targeted metabolomics (Biocrates AbsoluteIDQ [identification and quantification] p180) assays were performed on brain tissue samples from the autopsy cohort of the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) (N = 44, mean age = 81.33, % female = 36.36) from AD (N = 15), control (CN; N = 14), and "asymptomatic Alzheimer's disease" (ASYMAD, i.e., individuals with significant AD pathology but no cognitive impairment during life; N = 15) participants. Using machine-learning methods, we identified a panel of 26 metabolites from two main classes-sphingolipids and glycerophospholipids-that discriminated AD and CN samples with accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 83.33%, 86.67%, and 80%, respectively. We then assayed these 26 metabolites in serum samples from two well-characterized longitudinal cohorts representing prodromal (Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative [ADNI], N = 767, mean age = 75.19, % female = 42.63) and preclinical (BLSA) (N = 207, mean age = 78.68, % female = 42.63) AD, in which we tested their associations with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures of AD-related brain atrophy, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of AD pathology, risk of conversion to incident AD, and trajectories of cognitive performance. We developed an integrated blood and brain endophenotype score that summarized the relative importance of each metabolite to severity of AD pathology and disease progression (Endophenotype Association Score in Early Alzheimer's Disease [EASE-AD]). Finally, we mapped the main metabolite classes emerging from our analyses to key biological pathways implicated in AD pathogenesis. We found that distinct sphingolipid species including sphingomyelin (SM) with acyl residue sums C16:0, C18:1, and C16:1 (SM C16:0, SM C18:1, SM C16:1) and hydroxysphingomyelin with acyl residue sum C14:1 (SM (OH) C14:1) were consistently associated with severity of AD pathology at autopsy and AD progression across prodromal and preclinical stages. Higher log-transformed blood concentrations of all four sphingolipids in cognitively normal individuals were significantly associated with increased risk of future conversion to incident AD: SM C16:0 (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.430, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.703-11.520, p = 0.002), SM C16:1 (HR = 3.455, 95% CI = 1.516-7.873, p = 0.003), SM (OH) C14:1 (HR = 3.539, 95% CI = 1.373-9.122, p = 0.009), and SM C18:1 (HR = 2.255, 95% CI = 1.047-4.855, p = 0.038). The sphingolipid species identified map to several biologically relevant pathways implicated in AD, including tau phosphorylation, amyloid-ß (Aß) metabolism, calcium homeostasis, acetylcholine biosynthesis, and apoptosis. Our study has limitations: the relatively small number of brain tissue samples may have limited our power to detect significant associations, control for heterogeneity between groups, and replicate our findings in independent, autopsy-derived brain samples. CONCLUSIONS: We present a novel framework to identify biologically relevant brain and blood metabolites associated with disease pathology and progression during the prodromal and preclinical stages of AD. Our results show that perturbations in sphingolipid metabolism are consistently associated with endophenotypes across preclinical and prodromal AD, as well as with AD pathology at autopsy. Sphingolipids may be biologically relevant biomarkers for the early detection of AD, and correcting perturbations in sphingolipid metabolism may be a plausible and novel therapeutic strategy in AD.

Positive Aging Expectations Are Associated With Physical Activity Among Urban-Dwelling Older Adults.

Purpose: Regular physical activity is a key component of healthy aging, but few older adults meet physical activity guidelines. Poor aging expectations can contribute to this lack of activity, since negative stereotypes about the aging process can be internalized and affect physical performance. Although prior cross-sectional studies have shown that physical activity and aging expectations are associated, less is known about this association longitudinally, particularly among traditionally underrepresented groups. It is also unclear whether different domains of aging expectations are differentially associated with physical activity. Design and Methods: The number of minutes/week of physical activity in which Baltimore Experience Corps Trial participants (N = 446; 92.6% African American) engaged were measured using the CHAMPS questionnaire, while their aging expectations were measured using the ERA-12 survey. Linear mixed effects models assessed the association between physical activity and aging expectations over 2 years, both in full and sex-stratified samples. Separate models were also fit for different ERA-12 domains. Results: We found that higher overall expectations regarding aging are associated with higher engagement in moderate- to high-intensity physical activity over a 2-year period of time for women only. When the ERA-12 domains were examined separately, only the physical domain was associated with physical activity, both in women and overall. Implications: Low expectations regarding physical aging may represent a barrier to physical activity for older adults. Given that most older adults do not meet recommended physical activity guidelines, identifying factors that improve aging expectations may be a way to increase physical activity levels in aging populations.