Post-pandemic COVID-19 estimated and forecasted hotspots in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries in connection to vaccination rate.

After a two-year pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still a serious public health problem and economic stability worldwide, particularly in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. The objective of this study was to identify the wave periods, provide an accurate space-time forecast of COVID-19 disease and its relationship to vaccination rates. We combined a hierarchical Bayesian pure spatiotemporal model and locally weighted scatterplot smoothing techniques to identify the wave periods and to provide weekly COVID-19 forecasts for the period 15 December 2021 to 5 January 2022 and to identify the relationship between the COVID-19 risk and the vaccination rate. We discovered that each ASIAN country had a unique COVID-19 time wave and duration. Additionally, we discovered that the number of COVID-19 cases was quite low and that no weekly hotspots were identified during the study period. The vaccination rate showed a nonlinear relationship with the COVID-19 risk, with a different temporal pattern for each ASEAN country. We reached the conclusion that vaccination, in comparison to other interventions, has a large influence over a longer time span.

Indonesian National Growth Reference Charts Better Reflect Height and Weight of Children in West Java, Indonesia, than WHO Child Growth Standards

Objective: The Indonesia Basic Health Research 2018 indicates that Indonesian children are still among the shortest in the world. When referred to World Health Organization Child Growth Standards (WHOCGS), the prevalence of stunting reaches up to 43% in several Indonesian districts. Indonesian National Growth Reference Charts (INGRC) were established in order to better distinguish between healthy short children and children with growth disorders. We analyzed height and weight measurements of healthy Indonesian children using INGRC and WHOCGS. Methods: 6972 boys and 5800 girls (n=12,772), aged 0-59 months old, from Bandung District were measured. Z-scores of length/height and body mass index were calculated based on INGRC and WHOCGS. Results: Under 5-year-old Indonesian children raised in Bandung are short and slim. Mean height z-scores of boys is -2.03 [standard deviation (SD) 1.31], mean height z-scores of girls is -2.03 (SD 1.31) when referred to WHOCGS indicating that over 50% of these children are stunted. Bandung children are heterogeneous, with substantial subpopulations of tall children. Depending on the growth reference used, between 9% and 15% of them are wasted. Wasted children are on average half a SD taller than their peers. Conclusion: WHOCGS seriously overestimates the true prevalence of undernutrition in Indonesian children. The present investigation fails to support evidence of undernutrition at a prevalence similar to the over 50% prevalence of stunting (WHOCGS) versus 13.3% (INGRC). We suggest refraining from using WHOCGS, and instead applying INGRC that closely mirror height and weight increments in Bandung children. INGRC appear superior for practical and clinical purposes, such as detecting growth and developmental disorders.