Validation of a Risk Prediction Equation for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease in a Hypertensive Non-Diabetes Cohort in Singapore Primary Care Patients.

BACKGROUND: Accurate identification of individuals at risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) may improve clinical care. Nelson et al. developed prediction equations to estimate the risk of incident eGFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in diabetic and non-diabetes patients using data from 34 multinational cohorts. We aim to validate the non-diabetes equation in our local multi-ethnic cohort and develop further prediction models. METHODS: Demographics, clinical and laboratory data of hypertensive non-diabetes patients with baseline eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 on follow-up with primary care clinics between 2010 and 2015 were collected. Follow-up was 5 years from entry to study. We validated Nelson's equation and developed our own model which we subsequently validated. The developmental cohort included patients between 2010 and 2014 while the validation cohort included patients in 2015. Variables included age, sex, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, body mass index, albuminuria, cholesterol, and treatment. Primary outcome was incident eGFR <60/min/1.73 m2 within 5 years. Model performance was evaluated by C-statistics and calibration was assessed. RESULTS: In the developmental cohort of 27,800 patients, 2823 (10.2%) developed the outcome during a mean follow-up of 4.4 years while 638 (12.8%) patients developed the outcome in the validation cohort of 4,994 patients. Applicability of Nelson's equation was limited by missing albuminuria, absence of black race, and exclusion of non-hypertensive patients in our cohort. Nonetheless, the modified Nelson's model demonstrated C-statistic of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.84-0.86). The C-statistic of our bespoke model was 0.85 (0.85-0.86) and 0.87 (0.85-0.88) for the developmental cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Calibration was suboptimal as the predicted risk exceeded the observed risk. CONCLUSIONS: The modified Nelson's equation and our locally derived novel model demonstrated high discrimination. Both models may potentially be used in predicting risk of CKD in hypertensive patients who are managed in primary care, allowing for early interventions in high-risk population.

Multi-disciplinary diabetic limb salvage programme in octogenarians with diabetic foot ulcers is not futile: An observational study with historical controls.

This study evaluated the effectiveness of a multi-disciplinary diabetic limb salvage programme in improving clinical outcomes and optimising healthcare utilisation in 406 patients aged ≥80 years with diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs), compared to 2392 younger patients enrolled from June 2020 to June 2021 and against 1716 historical controls using one-to-one propensity score matching. Results showed that elderly programme patients had lower odds of amputation-free survival (odds ratio: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.88) and shorter cumulative length of stay (LOS) compared to younger programme patients (incidence rate ratio: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.29, 0.69). Compared to the matched controls, participating in the programme was associated with 5% higher probability of minor lower extremity amputation, reduced inpatient admissions and emergency visits, shorter LOS but increased specialist and primary care visits (all p-values <0.05). The findings suggest that the programme yielded favourable impacts on the clinical outcomes of patients aged≥80 years with DFUs. Further research is needed to develop specific interventions tailoring to the needs of the elderly population and to determine their effectiveness on patient outcomes while accounting for potential confounding factors.

Semi-automating abstract screening with a natural language model pretrained on biomedical literature.

We demonstrate the performance and workload impact of incorporating a natural language model, pretrained on citations of biomedical literature, on a workflow of abstract screening for studies on prognostic factors in end-stage lung disease. The model was optimized on one-third of the abstracts, and model performance on the remaining abstracts was reported. Performance of the model, in terms of sensitivity, precision, F1 and inter-rater agreement, was moderate in comparison with other published models. However, incorporating it into the screening workflow, with the second reviewer screening only abstracts with conflicting decisions, translated into a 65% reduction in the number of abstracts screened by the second reviewer. Subsequent work will look at incorporating the pre-trained BERT model into screening workflows for other studies prospectively, as well as improving model performance.

Age of onset of diabetes and all-cause mortality.

Diabetes mellitus continues to present a large social, financial and health system burden across the world. The relationship between age of onset of the different types of diabetes and all-cause mortality is uncertain. In this review paper, the relationship between age of onset of the different types of diabetes and all-cause mortality will be reviewed and an update of the current evidence will be presented. There is strong evidence of the relationship between age of onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and all-cause mortality, good evidence of the relationship between age of onset of T1DM and all-cause mortality and no evidence of the relationship between age of onset of gestational diabetes or prediabetes and all-cause mortality. Further research is needed to look at whether aggressive management of earlier onset of T2DM can help to reduce premature mortality.

Reversibility of diabetes mellitus: Narrative review of the evidence.

The global disease burden of diabetes mellitus is high. It is well-established that prediabetes is reversible but it is unclear whether diabetes is reversible once it has been diagnosed. The objective of this narrative review is to review the evidence of reversibility of diabetes mellitus and stimulate interest in prolonged remission as a treatment target. The current evidence for bariatric surgery is stronger than intensive medical management and the evidence is stronger for type 2 diabetes patients compared with type 1 diabetes patients. It is also unclear whether non obese diabetes patients would benefit from such interventions and the duration of diabetes before diabetes become irreversible. Further research is needed in this area especially with regards to the subgroup of diabetes patient who will benefit from these interventions and the long term safety and efficacy remains unknown especially with intensive medical management.