ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The progression from Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to active tuberculosis (TB) disease varies among individuals, and identifying biomarkers to predict progression is crucial for guiding interventions. In this study, we aimed to determine plasma immune biomarker profiles in healthy household contacts of index pulmonary TB (PTB) patients who either progressed to TB or remained as non-progressors. METHODS: A cohort of household contacts of adults with PTB was enrolled, consisting of 15 contacts who progressed to TB disease and 15 non-progressors. Plasma samples were collected at baseline, 4 months, and 12 months to identify predictive TB progression markers. RESULTS: Our findings revealed that individuals in the progressor group exhibited significantly decreased levels of IFNγ, IL-2, TNFα, IL1α, IL1ß, IL-17A, and IL-1Ra at baseline, months 4 and 12. In contrast, the progressor group displayed significantly elevated levels of IFNα, IFNß, IL-6, IL-12, GM-CSF, IL-10, IL-33, CCL2, CCL11, CXCL8, CXCL10, CX3CL1, VEGF, Granzyme-B and PDL-1 compared to the non-progressor group at baseline, months 4 and 12. ROC analysis identified IFNγ, GM-CSF, IL-1Ra, CCL2 and CXCL10 as the most promising predictive markers, with an AUC of ≥90. Furthermore, combinatorial analysis demonstrated that GM-CSF, CXCL10 and IL-1Ra, when used in combination, exhibited high accuracy in predicting progression to active TB disease. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that a specific set of plasma biomarkers GM-CSF, CXCL10 and IL-1Ra, can effectively identify household contacts at significant risk of developing TB disease. These findings have important implications for early intervention and preventive strategies in TB-endemic regions.
