The relation between reading and externalizing behavior: a correlational meta-analysis.

Reading proficiency is important because it has life-long consequences and influences success in other academic areas. Many students with behavior problems are poor readers and many students with learning disabilities have more behavior problems than their typical peers. We conducted a correlational meta-analysis to examine the association between reading and externalizing behavior in students ages 5-12. We identified 33 studies that reported 88 effect sizes. Using a random-effects linear regression model with robust variance estimation, we found a significant, negative correlation (r= -0.1698, SE = 0.01, p < 0.0001) between reading and externalizing behavior. We tested several moderators related to measurement and sample characteristics. We found that rater type, behavior dimension (e.g., aggression), time between longitudinal measurement points, age of the sample, and percentage male of the sample moderated the relation between reading and behavior. Whether the reading assessment measured comprehension or word reading and socioeconomic status of the sample did not moderate the relation. Understanding the association between reading and externalizing behavior has implications for disability identification and intervention practices for children in elementary school. Future research should examine shared cognitive factors and environmental influences that explain the relation between the constructs.

Acute warming tolerance (CTmax) in zebrafish (Danio rerio) appears unaffected by changes in water salinity.

Tolerance against acute warming is an essential trait that can determine how organisms cope during heat waves, yet the mechanisms underlying it remain elusive. Water salinity has previously been suggested to modulate warming tolerance in fish and may therefore provide clues towards these limiting mechanisms. Here, using the critical thermal maximum (CTmax) test, we investigated whether short (2 hours) and long (10 days) term exposure to different water salinities (2 hours: 0-5 ppt, 10 days: 0-3 ppt) affected acute warming tolerance in zebrafish (N = 263). We found that water salinity did not affect the warming tolerance of zebrafish at either time point, indicating that salinity does not affect the mechanism limiting acute warming tolerance in zebrafish at these salinity ranges, and that natural fluctuations in salinity levels might not have a large impact on acute warming tolerance in wild zebrafish.

First stroke incidence, causes, treatments, and outcomes for Aboriginal Peoples in South Australia and the Northern Territory: a pilot prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: We performed a pilot stroke incidence study, focused on feasibility and inclusion of the CONSIDER reporting guidelines, to model the design of a future population-based study aiming to definitively determine stroke incidence, antecedents, treatment, and outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective stroke incidence study (pilot study). SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: All people aged 15 years or older who lived in postcode-defined areas of South Australia and Northern Territory (885 472 people, including 45 127 Aboriginal people [5.1%]) diagnosed with stroke for the first time during 1 October - 31 December 2015 and admitted to public hospitals or stroke and transient ischaemic attack clinics. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Feasibility of a prospective population-based stroke incidence study. RESULTS: Of the 123 participants with first strokes, ten were Aboriginal (8%); the median age of Aboriginal people was 45 years (interquartile range [IQR], 33-55 years), of non-Indigenous people 73 years (IQR, 62-84 years). For Aboriginal people, the age-standardised incidence of stroke was 104 (95% confidence interval [CI], 84-124) per 100 000 person-years, for non-Indigenous people 33 (95% CI, 22-44) per 100 000 person-years. We found that a prospective population-based stroke incidence study in Aboriginal people was feasible, including with respect to establishing an adequate sample size, diagnostic confirmation, identification of incident stroke, confirming stroke subtypes, establishing a stable statistical population, standardising data reporting for comparison with other stroke incidence studies, and ethical research reporting that conforms to CONSIDER guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: A larger, population-based study of the incidence of stroke in Aboriginal people is both feasible and needed to provide robust estimates of stroke incidence, antecedents, treatments and outcomes to help guide strategies for reducing the risk of and outcomes of stroke in Aboriginal people.

Factors Associated with Delays in Initiating Biologic Therapy in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Expeditious initiation of biologic therapy is important in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, initiation of biologics in the outpatient setting may be delayed by various clinical, social, and financial variables. AIM: To evaluate the delay in initiation of an advanced therapy in IBD and to identify factors that contributed to this delay. METHODS: This was a multi-center retrospective study. Outpatients who were initiated on a biologic therapy from 3/1/2019 to 9/30/20 were eligible for the study. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed to identify variables associated with a delay in biologic treatment initiation. Delay was defined as the days from decision date (prescription placement) to first infusion or delivery of medication. RESULTS: In total 411 patients (Crohn's disease, n = 276; ulcerative colitis, n = 129) were included in the analysis. The median [interquartile range-(IQR)] delay for all drugs was 20 [12-37] days (infliximab, 19 [13-33] days; adalimumab, 10 [5-26] days; vedolizumab, 21 [14-42] days; and ustekinumab, 21 [14-42] days). Multivariate linear regression analysis identified that the most important variables associated with delays in biologic treatment initiation was self-identification as Black, longer distance from treatment site, and lack of initial insurance coverage approval. CONCLUSION: There may be a significant delay in biologic treatment initiation in patients with IBD. The most important variables associated with this delay included self-identification as Black, longer distance from site, and lack of initial insurance coverage approval.

Assessing amyloid PET positivity and cognitive function in Down syndrome to guide clinical trials targeting amyloid.

INTRODUCTION: Trisomy 21, or Down syndrome (DS), predisposes individuals to early-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD). While monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) targeting amyloid are approved for older AD patients, their efficacy in DS remains unexplored. This study examines amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) positivity (A+), memory function, and clinical status across ages in DS to guide mAb trial designs. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from the Alzheimer Biomarker Consortium-Down Syndrome (ABC-DS) was analyzed. PET amyloid beta in Centiloids classified amyloid status using various cutoffs. Episodic memory was assessed using the modified Cued Recall Test, and clinical status was determined through consensus processes. RESULTS: Four hundred nine DS adults (mean age = 44.83 years) were evaluated. A+ rates increased with age, with mean amyloid load rising significantly. Memory decline and cognitive impairment are also correlated with age. DISCUSSION: These findings emphasize the necessity of tailoring mAb trials for DS, considering age-related AD characteristics. HIGHLIGHTS: There is rapid increase in prevalence of amyloid beta (Aß) positron emission tomography (PET) positivity in Down syndrome (DS) after the age of 40 years. Aß PET positivity thresholds have significant impact on prevalence rates in DS. There is a significant lag between Aß PET positivity and clinical symptom onset in DS.

Intradermal fractional dose vaccination as a method to vaccinate individuals with suspected allergy to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.

Suspected allergic reactions after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination withheld multiple individuals from getting fully vaccinated during the pandemic. We vaccinated adults who had experienced possible allergic symptoms after their first intramuscular dose of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine with a 1/5th fractional intradermal test dose of the mRNA-1273 (Moderna) COVID-19 vaccine. No anaphylactic reactions were observed after intradermal vaccination (n = 56). Serum anti-S1 IgG concentrations were measured using a bead-based multiplex assay four weeks after vaccinations. Antibody concentrations were compared with a previously collected nationwide cohort that had received two intramuscular doses of mRNA-1273. Antibody responses in all subjects tested (n = 47) were comparable to standard of care intramuscular dosing. Fractional intradermal dosing of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines may provide a pragmatic solution that is safe, time efficient compared to skin prick testing, dose sparing and immunogenic in individuals with suspected vaccine allergy.

Reproductive characteristics, menopausal status, race and ethnicity, and risk of breast cancer subtypes defined by ER, PR and HER2 status: the Breast Cancer Etiology in Minorities study.

BACKGROUND: Associations between reproductive factors and risk of breast cancer differ by subtype defined by joint estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and HER2 expression status. Racial and ethnic differences in the incidence of breast cancer subtypes suggest etiologic heterogeneity, yet data are limited because most studies have included non-Hispanic White women only. METHODS: We analyzed harmonized data for 2,794 breast cancer cases and 4,579 controls, of whom 90% self-identified as African American, Asian American or Hispanic. Questionnaire data were pooled from three population-based studies conducted in California and data on tumor characteristics were obtained from the California Cancer Registry. The study sample included 1,530 luminal A (ER-positive and/or PR-positive, HER2-negative), 442 luminal B (ER-positive and/or PR-positive, HER2-positive), 578 triple-negative (TN; ER-negative, PR-negative, HER2-negative), and 244 HER2-enriched (ER-negative, PR-negative, HER2-positive) cases. We used multivariable unconditional logistic regression models to estimate subtype-specific ORs and 95% confidence intervals associated with parity, breast-feeding, and other reproductive characteristics by menopausal status and race and ethnicity. RESULTS: Subtype-specific associations with reproductive factors revealed some notable differences by menopausal status and race and ethnicity. Specifically, higher parity without breast-feeding was associated with higher risk of luminal A and TN subtypes among premenopausal African American women. In contrast, among Asian American and Hispanic women, regardless of menopausal status, higher parity with a breast-feeding history was associated with lower risk of luminal A subtype. Among premenopausal women only, luminal A subtype was associated with older age at first full-term pregnancy (FTP), longer interval between menarche and first FTP, and shorter interval since last FTP, with similar OR estimates across the three racial and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Subtype-specific associations with reproductive factors overall and by menopausal status, and race and ethnicity, showed some differences, underscoring that understanding etiologic heterogeneity in racially and ethnically diverse study samples is essential. Breast-feeding is likely the only reproductive factor that is potentially modifiable. Targeted efforts to promote and facilitate breast-feeding could help mitigate the adverse effects of higher parity among premenopausal African American women.

Longitudinal soluble marker profiles reveal strong association between cytokine storms resulting from macrophage activation and disease severity in COVID-19 disease.

SARS-CoV2 infection results in a range of disease severities, but the underlying differential pathogenesis is still not completely understood. At presentation it remains difficult to estimate and predict severity, in particular, identify individuals at greatest risk of progression towards the most severe disease-states. Here we used advanced models with circulating serum analytes as variables in combination with daily assessment of disease severity using the SCODA-score, not only at single time points but also during the course of disease, to correlate analyte levels and disease severity. We identified a remarkably strong pro-inflammatory cytokine/chemokine profile with high levels for sCD163, CCL20, HGF, CHintinase3like1 and Pentraxin3 in serum which correlated with COVID-19 disease severity and overall outcome. Although precise analyte levels differed, resulting biomarker profiles were highly similar at early and late disease stages, and even during convalescence similar biomarkers were elevated and further included CXCL3, CXCL6 and Osteopontin. Taken together, strong pro-inflammatory marker profiles were identified in patients with COVID-19 disease which correlated with overall outcome and disease severity.

Role of Sex, Anxiety, and Resilience in the Association between Adverse Childhood Experiences and Irritable Bowel Syndrome.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Adverse childhood experiences (ACE) are associated with increased risk of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), a female-predominant chronic abdominal disorder. Factors contributing to this association have not been well-studied. We compared sex differences in ACE for adults with and without IBS and evaluated the impact of anxiety and resilience on the relationship between ACE and IBS. METHODS: Sex and disease differences in total score and ACE subtypes from the ACE Questionnaire in subjects with IBS and control subjects were assessed. Cross-sectional mediation analysis determined if anxiety (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) and resilience (Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale or Brief Resilience Scale) mediated the relationship between ACE and IBS. RESULTS: Of 798 participants studied, 368 met IBS diagnostic criteria (265 women, 103 men) and 430 were healthy control subjects (277 women, 153 men). Prevalence and number of ACE were higher in IBS versus control subjects (P < .001) but similar between IBS women and men. Household mental illness increased odds of having IBS in women (odds ratio [OR], 1.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-2.85; false discovery rate [FDR], 0.002) and men (OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.26-4.33; FDR, 0.014). Emotional abuse increased odds of having IBS in women (OR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.23-3.09; FDR, 0.019) and sexual abuse increased odds of IBS in men (OR, 3.54; 95% CI, 1.35-10.38; FDR, 0.027). Anxiety mediated 54% (P < .001) of ACE's effect on IBS risk and resilience mediated 12%-14% (Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale, P = .008; Brief Resilience Scale, P = .018). CONCLUSIONS: Both men and women with a history of ACE are twice as likely to have IBS than those without an ACE. Anxiety mediated the relationship between ACE and IBS in men and women and resilience mediated this relationship only in women.

Preclinical evaluation of therapeutic vaccines for chronic hepatitis B that stimulate antiviral activities of T cells and NKT cells.

Background & Aims: Liver diseases resulting from chronic HBV infection are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Vaccines that elicit T-cell responses capable of controlling the virus represent a treatment strategy with potential for long-term effects. Here, we evaluated vaccines that induce the activity of type I natural killer T (NKT) cells to limit viral replication and license stimulation of conventional antiviral T-cells. Methods: Vaccines were prepared by conjugating peptide epitopes to an NKT-cell agonist to promote co-delivery to antigen-presenting cells, encouraging NKT-cell licensing and stimulation of T cells. Activity of the conjugate vaccines was assessed in transgenic mice expressing the complete HBV genome, administered intravenously to maximise access to NKT cell-rich tissues. Results: The vaccines induced only limited antiviral activity in unmanipulated transgenic hosts, likely attributable to NKT-cell activation as T-cell tolerance to viral antigens is strong. However, in a model of chronic hepatitis B involving transfer of naive HBcAg-specific CD8+ T cells into the transgenic mice, which typically results in specific T-cell dysfunction without virus control, vaccines containing the targeted HBcAg epitope induced prolonged antiviral activity because of qualitatively improved T-cell stimulation. In a step towards a clinical product, vaccines were prepared using synthetic long peptides covering clusters of known HLA-binding epitopes and shown to be immunogenic in HLA transgenic mice. Predictions based on HLA distribution suggest a product containing three selected SLP-based vaccines could give >90 % worldwide coverage, with an average of 3.38 epitopes targeted per individual. Conclusions: The novel vaccines described show promise for further clinical development as a treatment for chronic hepatitis B. Impact and Implications: Although there are effective prophylactic vaccines for HBV infection, it is estimated that 350-400 million people worldwide have chronic hepatitis B, putting these individuals at significant risk of life-threatening liver diseases. Therapeutic vaccination aimed at activating or boosting HBV-specific T-cell responses holds potential as a strategy for treating chronic infection, but has so far met with limited success. Here, we show that a glycolipid-peptide conjugate vaccine designed to coordinate activity of type I NKT cells alongside conventional antiviral T cells has antiviral activity in a mouse model of chronic infection. It is anticipated that a product based on a combination of three such conjugates, each prepared using long peptides covering clusters of known HLA-binding epitopes, could be developed further as a treatment for chronic hepatitis B with broad global HLA coverage.

Octyl itaconate enhances VSVΔ51 oncolytic virotherapy by multitarget inhibition of antiviral and inflammatory pathways.

The presence of heterogeneity in responses to oncolytic virotherapy poses a barrier to clinical effectiveness, as resistance to this treatment can occur through the inhibition of viral spread within the tumor, potentially leading to treatment failures. Here we show that 4-octyl itaconate (4-OI), a chemical derivative of the Krebs cycle-derived metabolite itaconate, enhances oncolytic virotherapy with VSVΔ51 in various models including human and murine resistant cancer cell lines, three-dimensional (3D) patient-derived colon tumoroids and organotypic brain tumor slices. Furthermore, 4-OI in combination with VSVΔ51 improves therapeutic outcomes in a resistant murine colon tumor model. Mechanistically, we find that 4-OI suppresses antiviral immunity in cancer cells through the modification of cysteine residues in MAVS and IKKß independently of the NRF2/KEAP1 axis. We propose that the combination of a metabolite-derived drug with an oncolytic virus agent can greatly improve anticancer therapeutic outcomes by direct interference with the type I IFN and NF-κB-mediated antiviral responses.

Coagulation and inflammatory response after intramuscular or intradermal mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine: secondary analysis of a randomized trial.

Background: Fractional-dosed intradermal (i.d.) vaccination produces antibody concentrations above the proposed proxy for protection against severe disease as compared with intramuscular (i.m.) vaccination and may be associated with a decreased prothrombotic effect. Objectives: To assess changes in coagulation following standard dosed i.m. or fractional-dosed i.d. (one-fifth of i.m.) mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and to determine the association between the inflammatory response and coagulation. Methods: This study was embedded in a randomized controlled trial assessing the immunogenicity of an i.d. fractional-dosed mRNA-1273 vaccine. Healthy participants, aged 18 to 30 years, were randomized (2:1) to receive either 2 doses of i.d. or i.m. vaccine. Blood was drawn prior to first and second vaccination doses and 1 and 2 weeks after the second dose. The outcomes were changes in coagulation parameters (primary endpoint peak height of the thrombin generation curve) and inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hs-CRP]). Results: One hundred twenty-three participants were included (81 i.d.; 42 i.m.). Peak height increased after vaccination (i.m., 28.8 nmol; 95% CI, 6.3-63.8; i.d., 17.3 nmol; 95% CI, 12.5-47.2) and recovered back to baseline within 2 weeks. I.m. vaccination showed a higher inflammatory response compared with i.d. vaccination (extra increase hs-CRP, 0.92 mg/L; 95% CI, 0.2-1.7). Change in endogenous thrombin potential was associated with change in hs-CRP (beta, 28.0; 95% CI, 7.6-48.3). Conclusion: A transient increase in coagulability after mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccination occurred, which was associated with the inflammatory response. While i.d. administration showed antibody concentrations above the proposed proxy for protection against severe disease, it was associated with less systemic inflammation. Hence, i.d. vaccination may be safer.

Two genome-wide interaction loci modify the association of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs with colorectal cancer.

Regular, long-term aspirin use may act synergistically with genetic variants, particularly those in mechanistically relevant pathways, to confer a protective effect on colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. We leveraged pooled data from 52 clinical trial, cohort, and case-control studies that included 30,806 CRC cases and 41,861 controls of European ancestry to conduct a genome-wide interaction scan between regular aspirin/nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use and imputed genetic variants. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, we identified statistically significant interactions between regular aspirin/NSAID use and variants in 6q24.1 (top hit rs72833769), which has evidence of influencing expression of TBC1D7 (a subunit of the TSC1-TSC2 complex, a key regulator of MTOR activity), and variants in 5p13.1 (top hit rs350047), which is associated with expression of PTGER4 (codes a cell surface receptor directly involved in the mode of action of aspirin). Genetic variants with functional impact may modulate the chemopreventive effect of regular aspirin use, and our study identifies putative previously unidentified targets for additional mechanistic interrogation.

Identification of potential mediators of the relationship between body mass index and colorectal cancer: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third-most-common cancer worldwide and its rates are increasing. Elevated body mass index (BMI) is an established risk factor for CRC, although the molecular mechanisms behind this association remain unclear. Using the Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we aimed to investigate the mediating effects of putative biomarkers and other CRC risk factors in the association between BMI and CRC. METHODS: We selected as mediators biomarkers of established cancer-related mechanisms and other CRC risk factors for which a plausible association with obesity exists, such as inflammatory biomarkers, glucose homeostasis traits, lipids, adipokines, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1), sex hormones, 25-hydroxy-vitamin D, smoking, physical activity (PA) and alcohol consumption. We used inverse-variance weighted MR in the main univariable analyses and performed sensitivity analyses (weighted-median, MR-Egger, Contamination Mixture). We used multivariable MR for the mediation analyses. RESULTS: Genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with CRC risk [odds ratio per SD (5 kg/m2) = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08-1.24, P-value = 1.4 × 10-5] and robustly associated with nearly all potential mediators. Genetically predicted IGF1, fasting insulin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, PA and alcohol were associated with CRC risk. Evidence for attenuation was found for IGF1 [explained 7% (95% CI: 2-13%) of the association], smoking (31%, 4-57%) and PA (7%, 2-11%). There was little evidence for pleiotropy, although smoking was bidirectionally associated with BMI and instruments were weak for PA. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of BMI on CRC risk is possibly partly mediated through plasma IGF1, whereas the attenuation of the BMI-CRC association by smoking and PA may reflect confounding and shared underlying mechanisms rather than mediation.

Racial and ethnic differences in epithelial ovarian cancer risk: an analysis from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Limited estimates exist on risk factors for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in Asian, Hispanic, and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (NHPI) women. METHODS: Participants included 1734 Asian (785 cases, 949 controls), 266 NHPI (99 cases, 167 controls), 1149 Hispanic (505 cases, 644 controls), and 24,189 White (9,981 cases, 14,208 controls) women from 11 studies in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium. Logistic regression models estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk associations by race and ethnicity. RESULTS: Heterogeneity in EOC risk associations by race and ethnicity (p ≤ 0.02) was observed for oral contraceptive (OC) use, parity, tubal ligation and smoking. We observed inverse associations with EOC risk for OC use and parity across all groups; associations were strongest in NHPI and Asian women. The inverse association for tubal ligation with risk was most pronounced for NHPI participants (OR=0.25, 95% CI 0.13-0.48), versus Asian and White participants, respectively (OR=0.68, 95% CI 0.51-0.90; OR=0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.85). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in EOC risk factor associations were observed across racial and ethnic groups, which could in part be due to varying prevalence of EOC histotypes. Inclusion of greater diversity in future studies is essential to inform prevention strategies.

Immunogenicity of a bivalent BA.1 COVID-19 booster vaccine in people with HIV in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the immunogenicity of a bivalent BA.1 COVID-19 booster vaccine in people with HIV (PWH). DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: PWH aged ≥45 years received Wuhan-BA.1 mRNA-1273.214 and those <45 years Wuhan-BA.1 BNT162b2. Participants were propensity score-matched 1 : 2 to people without HIV (non-PWH) by age, primary vaccine platform (mRNA-based or vector-based), number of prior COVID-19 boosters and SARS-CoV-2 infections, and spike (S1)-specific antibodies on the day of booster administration. The primary endpoint was the geometric mean ratio (GMR) of ancestral S1-specific antibodies from day 0 to 28 in PWH compared to non-PWH. Secondary endpoints included humoral responses, T-cell responses and cytokine responses up to 180 days post-vaccination. RESULTS: Forty PWH received mRNA-1273.214 ( N  = 35) or BNT162b2 ( N  = 5) following mRNA-based ( N  = 29) or vector-based ( N  = 11) primary vaccination. PWH were predominantly male (87% vs. 26% of non-PWH) and median 57 years [interquartile range (IQR) 53-59]. Their median CD4 + T-cell count was 775 (IQR 511-965) and the plasma HIV-RNA load was <50 copies/ml in 39/40. The GMR of S1-specific antibodies by 28 days post-vaccination was comparable between PWH [4.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.24-6.19] and non-PWH (4.07, 95% CI 3.42-4.83). S1-specific antibody responses were comparable between PWH and non-PWH up to 180 days, and T-cell responses up to 90 days post-vaccination. Interferon-γ, interleukin (IL)-2, and IL-4 cytokine concentrations increased 28 days post-vaccination in PWH. CONCLUSION: A bivalent BA.1 booster vaccine was immunogenic in well treated PWH, eliciting comparable humoral responses to non-PWH. However, T-cell responses waned faster after 90 days in PWH compared to non-PWH.

Introducing a machine learning algorithm for delirium prediction-the Supporting SURgery with GEriatric Co-Management and AI project (SURGE-Ahead).

INTRODUCTION: Post-operative delirium (POD) is a common complication in older patients, with an incidence of 14-56%. To implement preventative procedures, it is necessary to identify patients at risk for POD. In the present study, we aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model for POD prediction in older patients, in close cooperation with the PAWEL (patient safety, cost-effectiveness and quality of life in elective surgery) project. METHODS: The model was trained on the PAWEL study's dataset of 878 patients (no intervention, age ≥ 70, 209 with POD). Presence of POD was determined by the Confusion Assessment Method and a chart review. We selected 15 features based on domain knowledge, ethical considerations and a recursive feature elimination. A logistic regression and a linear support vector machine (SVM) were trained, and evaluated using receiver operator characteristics (ROC). RESULTS: The selected features were American Society of Anesthesiologists score, multimorbidity, cut-to-suture time, estimated glomerular filtration rate, polypharmacy, use of cardio-pulmonary bypass, the Montreal cognitive assessment subscores 'memory', 'orientation' and 'verbal fluency', pre-existing dementia, clinical frailty scale, age, recent falls, post-operative isolation and pre-operative benzodiazepines. The linear SVM performed best, with an ROC area under the curve of 0.82 [95% CI 0.78-0.85] in the training set, 0.81 [95% CI 0.71-0.88] in the test set and 0.76 [95% CI 0.71-0.79] in a cross-centre validation. CONCLUSION: We present a clinically useful and explainable ML model for POD prediction. The model will be deployed in the Supporting SURgery with GEriatric Co-Management and AI project.

Transcriptionally Active Human Papillomavirus Infection in a Minority of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinomas in North America.

The role of Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a topic of ongoing debate. This study used two screening approaches to look for evidence of HPV infection in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. We initially checked for HPV infection in a randomly selected group of 53 ESCC cases. We did not detect any tumors positive for high-risk HPV. However, during clinical practice, we identified an HPV-positive ESCC in the distal esophagus, which tested positive for HPV16. This index case was TP53 wild-type, as determined by next-generation DNA sequencing (NGS). Since TP53 mutations are rare in other HPV-driven cancers, we improved our screening method by limiting our screen to a subset of ESCC cases without TP53 mutations. A second screen of 95 ESCCs (from 93 patients) sequenced by NGS revealed an additional 7 ESCCs with TP53 wild-type status (7.3% of the total). Of the 7 cases, 2 cases were found to be high-risk HPV positive. Both patients also tested positive for circulating cell-free HPV DNA and had a complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation. The index patient had microscopic residual tumor following neoadjuvant therapy. The patient underwent adjuvant immunotherapy and remained disease free after 22 months of surveillance. This study affirms the transcriptionally active status of high-risk HPV in a minority of ESCC patients in North America.

Evaluation of Patient Expectations and Outcomes after Distal Radius Fractures.

BACKGROUND: Patient expectations influence patient-reported outcomes after musculoskeletal injuries. The goal of this study is to determine how pretreatment expectations correlate with outcomes in patients with distal radius fractures. METHODS: Seventy-five patients with an isolated distal radius fracture were prospectively enrolled into nonoperative and operative cohorts. The Trauma Expectation Factor-Trauma Outcome Measure (TEF-TOM) score was the primary outcome measure. Trauma Expectation Factor scores were recorded at the time of enrollment, and TOM scores were recorded at 3, 6, and 12 months. Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand (qDASH) and Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation (PRWE) scores were also recorded. RESULTS: Trauma Outcome Measure scores at all time points were worse than expected (P < .01). Expectations were higher for patients younger than 65 years than for the 65+ group (P = .02). In patients aged 65+ years, mean TOM at 3 months was not significantly different than expected (P = .11) but decreased by 6 (P = .04) and 12 months (P < .01). Baseline TEF and TEF-TOM scores were not significantly different between operative and nonoperative groups (P = .37). Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand and PRWE scores were not significantly different between age or treatment groups at the final follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The overall treatment of distal radial injuries in our study did not meet patient expectations. Patients aged 65 years or older had lower expectations but were not able to predict their outcomes better than patients aged <65 years. There were no differences in TEF or TOM by treatment method. Patients demonstrated improved functional outcomes (qDASH/PRWE) at all time points regardless of age and treatment method.