ABSTRACT
Background Hepatitis B and C are viral infections of the liver transmitted by blood contamination. These infections are endemic in Pakistan and put a tremendous burden on its healthcare system. We conducted this study to assess the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in Gujranwala, Pakistan, from 2010 to 2015 and determine the trend of future infections for a prediction of the disease burden by 2030 so policymakers can make informed decisions. Methods We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study of 66,308 healthy blood donor samples at District Headquarters Teaching Hospital in Gujranwala from January 2010 to December 2015. Samples were screened for HBV and HCV using the kit method, and data were analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 20.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY). We applied a least squares regression to our results to predict HBV and HCV incidence in 2030. Results A total of 715 samples (1.08%) were positive for HBV and 1,846 samples (2.78%) were positive for HCV. Our projections indicate that 3.25% of patients in Pakistan will be positive for HBV, and 6.36% will be positive for HBC by 2030. Conclusion We found an unexpectedly greater burden of HBV and HCV in the recent past than at current levels. The predicted percentages of future burden over the next decade were alarmingly high. These data necessitate implementing preventive and therapeutic measures by policymakers to reduce the disease burden and mortality in Pakistan.
