Building clone-consistent ecosystem models.

Many ecological studies employ general models that can feature an arbitrary number of populations. A critical requirement imposed on such models is clone consistency: If the individuals from two populations are indistinguishable, joining these populations into one shall not affect the outcome of the model. Otherwise a model produces different outcomes for the same scenario. Using functional analysis, we comprehensively characterize all clone-consistent models: We prove that they are necessarily composed from basic building blocks, namely linear combinations of parameters and abundances. These strong constraints enable a straightforward validation of model consistency. Although clone consistency can always be achieved with sufficient assumptions, we argue that it is important to explicitly name and consider the assumptions made: They may not be justified or limit the applicability of models and the generality of the results obtained with them. Moreover, our insights facilitate building new clone-consistent models, which we illustrate for a data-driven model of microbial communities. Finally, our insights point to new relevant forms of general models for theoretical ecology. Our framework thus provides a systematic way of comprehending ecological models, which can guide a wide range of studies.

Complexity and irreducibility of dynamics on networks of networks.

We study numerically the dynamics of a network of all-to-all-coupled, identical sub-networks consisting of diffusively coupled, non-identical FitzHugh-Nagumo oscillators. For a large range of within- and between-network couplings, the network exhibits a variety of dynamical behaviors, previously described for single, uncoupled networks. We identify a region in parameter space in which the interplay of within- and between-network couplings allows for a richer dynamical behavior than can be observed for a single sub-network. Adjoining this atypical region, our network of networks exhibits transitions to multistability. We elucidate bifurcations governing the transitions between the various dynamics when crossing this region and discuss how varying the couplings affects the effective structure of our network of networks. Our findings indicate that reducing a network of networks to a single (but bigger) network might not be accurate enough to properly understand the complexity of its dynamics.

Efficiently and easily integrating differential equations with JiTCODE, JiTCDDE, and JiTCSDE.

We present a family of Python modules for the numerical integration of ordinary, delay, or stochastic differential equations. The key features are that the user enters the derivative symbolically and it is just-in-time-compiled, allowing the user to efficiently integrate differential equations from a higher-level interpreted language. The presented modules are particularly suited for large systems of differential equations such as those used to describe dynamics on complex networks. Through the selected method of input, the presented modules also allow almost complete automatization of the process of estimating regular as well as transversal Lyapunov exponents for ordinary and delay differential equations. We conceptually discuss the modules' design, analyze their performance, and demonstrate their capabilities by application to timely problems.

A highly specific test for periodicity.

We present a method that allows to distinguish between nearly periodic and strictly periodic time series. To this purpose, we employ a conservative criterion for periodicity, namely, that the time series can be interpolated by a periodic function whose local extrema are also present in the time series. Our method is intended for the analysis of time series generated by deterministic time-continuous dynamical systems, where it can help telling periodic dynamics from chaotic or transient ones. We empirically investigate our method's performance and compare it to an approach based on marker events (or Poincaré sections). We demonstrate that our method is capable of detecting small deviations from periodicity and outperforms the marker-event-based approach in typical situations. Our method requires no adjustment of parameters to the individual time series, yields the period length with a precision that exceeds the sampling rate, and its runtime grows asymptotically linear with the length of the time series.

Data-driven prediction and prevention of extreme events in a spatially extended excitable system.

Extreme events occur in many spatially extended dynamical systems, often devastatingly affecting human life, which makes their reliable prediction and efficient prevention highly desirable. We study the prediction and prevention of extreme events in a spatially extended system, a system of coupled FitzHugh-Nagumo units, in which extreme events occur in a spatially and temporally irregular way. Mimicking typical constraints faced in field studies, we assume not to know the governing equations of motion and to be able to observe only a subset of all phase-space variables for a limited period of time. Based on reconstructing the local dynamics from data and despite being challenged by the rareness of events, we are able to predict extreme events remarkably well. With small, rare, and spatiotemporally localized perturbations which are guided by our predictions, we are able to completely suppress extreme events in this system.

Route to extreme events in excitable systems.

Systems of FitzHugh-Nagumo units with different coupling topologies are capable of self-generating and -terminating strong deviations from their regular dynamics that can be regarded as extreme events due to their rareness and recurrent occurrence. Here we demonstrate the crucial role of an interior crisis in the emergence of extreme events. In parameter space we identify this interior crisis as the organizing center of the dynamics by employing concepts of mixed-mode oscillations and of leaking chaotic systems. We find that extreme events occur in certain regions in parameter space, and we show the robustness of this phenomenon with respect to the system size.

Extreme events in excitable systems and mechanisms of their generation.

We study deterministic systems, composed of excitable units of FitzHugh-Nagumo type, that are capable of self-generating and self-terminating strong deviations from their regular dynamics without the influence of noise or parameter change. These deviations are rare, short-lasting, and recurrent and can therefore be regarded as extreme events. Employing a range of methods we analyze dynamical properties of the systems, identifying features in the systems' dynamics that may qualify as precursors to extreme events. We investigate these features and elucidate mechanisms that may be responsible for the generation of the extreme events.

Surrogate-assisted analysis of weighted functional brain networks.

Graph-theoretical analyses of complex brain networks is a rapidly evolving field with a strong impact for neuroscientific and related clinical research. Due to a number of confounding variables, however, a reliable and meaningful characterization of particularly functional brain networks is a major challenge. Addressing this problem, we present an analysis approach for weighted networks that makes use of surrogate networks with preserved edge weights or vertex strengths. We first investigate whether characteristics of weighted networks are influenced by trivial properties of the edge weights or vertex strengths (e.g., their standard deviations). If so, these influences are then effectively segregated with an appropriate surrogate normalization of the respective network characteristic. We demonstrate this approach by re-examining, in a time-resolved manner, weighted functional brain networks of epilepsy patients and control subjects derived from simultaneous EEG/MEG recordings during different behavioral states. We show that this surrogate-assisted analysis approach reveals complementary information about these networks, can aid with their interpretation, and thus can prevent deriving inappropriate conclusions.

Constrained randomization of weighted networks.

We propose a Markov chain method to efficiently generate surrogate networks that are random under the constraint of given vertex strengths. With these strength-preserving surrogates and with edge-weight-preserving surrogates we investigate the clustering coefficient and the average shortest path length of functional networks of the human brain as well as of the International Trade Networks. We demonstrate that surrogate networks can provide additional information about network-specific characteristics and thus help interpreting empirical weighted networks.