Predicting spring moth emergence in the pink bollworm (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae): implications for managing resistance to transgenic cotton.

Cultural control methods have been central in the southwestern United States for reducing pink bollworm, Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders), damage to cotton. Nevertheless, it is not clear at present how such methods could be integrated within the novel pest management framework allowed by introduction of cotton producing a toxin from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) for pink bollworm control. Using statewide pheromone trapping and climatic data in conjunction with deterministic simulation models, we investigated whether manipulation of cotton planting date and use of other cultural control methods could represent valuable tactics for control of the pink bollworm in Arizona. Accumulation of heat units from one January accurately predicted the rate of pink bollworm emergence from diapause in 15 cotton-producing regions. Significant variation in rate of emergence from diapause was present among regions, with earlier emergence at higher altitudes. Most adults emerge from diapause too early to reproduce successfully on cotton, a phenomenon known as suicidal emergence. A method for prediction of the fraction of suicidal emergence resulting from adoption of a given cotton planting date is presented. Results from simulation models suggest that manipulation of planting date and implementation of other control cultural methods reduce the rate of application of insecticides and delay the evolution of resistance to Bt cotton in the pink bollworm.

Large-scale management of insect resistance to transgenic cotton in Arizona: can transgenic insecticidal crops be sustained?

A major challenge for agriculture is management of insect resistance to toxins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) produced by transgenic crops. Here we describe how a large-scale program is being developed in Arizona for management of resistance to Bt cotton in the pink bollworm, Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), and other insect pests of cotton. Financial support from growers makes this program possible. Collaboration between the Arizona Cotton Research and Protection Council, the University of Arizona, and government agencies has led to development of resistance management guidelines, a remedial action plan, and tools for monitoring compliance with the proposed guidelines. Direct participation in development of resistance management policies is a strong incentive for growers to invest in resistance management research. However, more research, regularly updated regulations, and increased collaboration between stakeholders are urgently needed to maintain efficacy of Bt toxins in transgenic crops.

Frequency of resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis in field populations of pink bollworm.

Strategies for delaying pest resistance to genetically modified crops that produce Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxins are based primarily on theoretical models. One key assumption of such models is that genes conferring resistance are rare. Previous estimates for lepidopteran pests targeted by Bt crops seem to meet this assumption. We report here that the estimated frequency of a recessive allele conferring resistance to Bt toxin Cry1Ac was 0.16 (95% confidence interval = 0.05-0.26) in strains of pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella) derived from 10 Arizona cotton fields during 1997. Unexpectedly, the estimated resistance allele frequency did not increase from 1997 to 1999 and Bt cotton remained extremely effective against pink bollworm. These results demonstrate that the assumptions and predictions of resistance management models must be reexamined.