Integrating expert judgment in veterinary epidemiology: example guidance for disease freedom surveillance.

Expert opinions supplement empirical data in many epidemiologic assessments. For veterinary disease freedom surveillance, where the geographic scope of concern is often broad, populations subject to change, decisions eminent and empirical data, expert opinion can be a critical component of the decision making process. However, opinion is by definition subjective and the manner in which opinion is sought can impact the quality and reliability of estimates. Group interaction can hinder or improve the estimation process, depending on its facilitation. Further, whether and how validation is conducted can limit or increase acceptance of the resulting model. While the utility of expert opinion is widely recognized in many fields, and the impact of its use or misuse implicit, standards for application to veterinary assessments are not readily available. This paper aims to foster discussion on this influential component of epidemiology, with disease freedom application as a focus. Benefits and concerns attributed to expert judgment and guidelines for its structured elicitation are described, borrowing insights from its long history of use in decision science fields and examples from recent veterinary assessments.

Risk factors associated with the presence of viable Listeria monocytogenes in bulk tank milk from US dairies.

The objective of the study was to screen a large number of herd management practices and herd characteristics from US dairies to identify herd-level risk factors associated with the presence of Listeria monocytogenes in bulk tank milk (BTM). A total of 71 variables was univariately evaluated for their association with the presence of L. monocytogenes in BTM. Results from the univariate analysis indicated that using automatic take offs and having an open herd management increased the risk of BTM contamination with L. monocytogenes, while storing manure in outside pens not accessible to cattle decreased the risk. These variables, however, were not sustained in the multivariable model, which indicated that the presence of L. monocytogenes in BTM was significantly associated with region of the country (farms in the southeast and northeast were six and four times more likely respectively, to have BTM contamination than farms in the west) and number of milking cows (herds with >500 milking cows were five times more likely to have BTM contamination than herds with <100 milking cows). In conclusion, our results suggest that risk factors associated with BTM contamination are different depending on the geographical region and herd size of the operation.

Association of severity of enteric granulomatous inflammation with disseminated Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection and antemortem test results for paratuberculosis in dairy cows.

Disseminated infection (DI) of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) in cattle may impair cow health, potentiate spread of disease, and is a potential food-safety risk. The objectives of this study were to determine the association between severity of histologic enteric lesions and the occurrence of DI, clinical signs, and positive fecal culture and serum ELISA results. Bacteriologic fecal culture and serum ELISA were performed on 40 dairy cows from MAP-infected herds. Cows were classified as having DI if MAP was isolated from any of 11 extra-intestinal tissues collected postmortem. A grade of 0-3, corresponding to the severity of histologically evident granulomatous inflammation was determined for sections of ileum, jejunum, mesenteric lymph node, and ileocolic lymph node. An overall intestinal inflammation (OII) grade of 0-3 was assigned to each cow. The proportion of cows with DI increased with tissue-specific lesion grade and OII grade. All cows with grade 3 inflammation in any single tissue had DI, however, some cows with DI had grade 1 inflammation or no lesions. In general, there was a positive association between OII grade and clinical signs, gross enteric lesions, and positive ELISA and fecal culture results. However, 12% of OII grade 0 cows had clinical signs (explained by other conditions recognized with necropsy), and the proportion of positive ELISA results was lower for OII grade 3 cows relative to grade 2 cows. Although MAP dissemination may occur early in the disease process, histopathology of intestinal tissues may be used to detect a substantial proportion of DI cows.

Immune response to and faecal shedding of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis in young dairy calves, and the association between test results in the calves and the infection status of their dams.

The objectives of this study were to: (i) evaluate the results of an intradermal skin test, a modified IFN-gamma test, and a commercial ELISA in commercially raised dairy calves at 2, 4, 6 and 8 months of age relative to faecal shedding of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP); (ii) determine the proportion of 8-month-old calves shedding MAP in faeces as detected by culture and One Tube Nested Polymerase Chain Reaction (OTSN-PCR) and (iii) explore the association between results of tests described above in the calves and the Paratuberculosis (PTB) status of their dams as determined by faecal culture and/or serology. The study calves belonged to two dairy herds with different risk of exposure to MAP (high and low) and were enrolled based on their dam's ELISA results prior to calving. Approximately 3% of the calves were shedding MAP in faeces at 8 months of age. No agreement was observed among the evaluated immunity-based tests or between the immunity-based tests and the detection of MAP in faeces. Although no association was observed between the infection status of the dam and the results from the IFN-gamma and skin tests on the calves, there is an indication that calves born from dams that were faecal shedders might be at a higher risk of testing positive to the IFN-gamma test at 8 months of age. The disagreement among all tests evaluated in this calf cohort suggests that the detection of MAP infection in young stock requires the use of combined multiple tests. The early detection of PTB in calves is a challenge that requires further exploration of new methods to confirm infection status. These new testing methods should be both affordable and compatible with regular husbandry practices.

Detection of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in Swiss dairy cattle by real-time PCR and culture: a comparison of the two assays.

AIMS: To compare the two different diagnostic assays for the detection of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis, the aetiological agent of paratuberculosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Faecal samples were derived from 310 cows, representing 13 commercial dairy herds in various locations in Switzerland with expected increased risk because of a past history of disease. Detection assays for M. avium ssp. paratuberculosis were culture (gold standard) and a newly designed real-time PCR. Real-time PCR identified 31 of 310 animals as positive within this risk population whereas culture identified 20 positive animals. The specificity of real-time PCR was confirmed by DNA sequencing of the PCR product. Depending on the test used, the paratuberculosis prevalence in our tested risk population ranged from 6.5 to 10%. CONCLUSIONS: Real-time PCR and culture data were in good agreement, and real-time PCR generates data in a short time in contrast to culture. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: We consider real-time PCR as a suitable alternative method to culture for the detection of M. avium ssp. paratuberculosis in a national surveillance programme.

A one-tube nested polymerase chain reaction for the detection of mycobacterium bovis in spiked milk samples: an evaluation of concentration and lytic techniques.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of a one-tube nested polymerase chain reaction (OTN PCR) with 5 concentration and lytic treatments for the detection of Mycobacterium bovis in experimentally inoculated milk samples (spiked samples). OTN PCR and the following treatments were tested in inoculated samples: 1) centrifugation; 2) C18-carboxypropylbetaine + capture resin 1 + Proteinase K (CB18-CH-PK); 3) centrifugation + capture resin 1 + Proteinase K; 4) centrifugation + capture resin 2 + Proteinase K; and 5) centrifugation + immunomagnetic separation (IMS). The OTN PCR and the 5 treatments were evaluated in 2 different sets of spiked milk samples. One set consisted of 10-fold serial dilutions of a phenol-killed M. bovis in milk to final concentrations ranging from 5 to 50,000 cells/ml of milk. The other set of samples consisted of 2.5 serial dilutions of milk spiked with M. bovis to final concentrations ranging from 20.5 to 5,000 cells/ml of milk. Each treatment was repeated 5 times at each cell concentration. CB18-CH-PK and IMS were significantly more sensitive than other treatments. The lowest detection limit for these techniques was 20-50 cells/ ml of spiked milk. The specificity of OTN PCR in this study was high as demonstrated by the lack of DNA amplification products when M. bovis cells were not present in the samples. [The OTN PCR used in conjunction with CB18-CH-PK or IMS could be effectively used as a diagnostic and/or screening test for the detection of M. bovis in milk from herds with bovine tuberculosis.]

La vacuna antiaftosa con adyuvante oleoso y su posible influencia en el diagnóstico de la tuberculosis en bovinos

Se investigó la posible influencia de la vacuna antiaftosa con adyuvante oleoso - aplicada de acuerdo con el Plan Nacional de Erradicación - sobre la respuesta a la tuberculina PPD, y sobre el nivel de anticuerpos séricos anti-Mycobacterium bovis determinado por un enzimoinmunoensayo (ELISA). Se incluyeron 40 bovinos de un establecimiento oficialmente libre de tuberculosis. Se efectuaron dos vacunaciones con seis meses de intervalo, pruebas tuberculínas y sangrías para ELISA. Las sangrías se realizaron al inicio del estudio, a los cinco días y a los 90 días después de cada vacunación. Los resultados obtenidos en ambas pruebas diagnósticas de tuberculosis, antes y después de dos vacunaciones con vacuna antiaftosa con adyuvante oleoso no mostraron interferencia de esa vacuna sobre la especificidad de las respuestas tuberculínicas o de los niveles de anticuerpos anti-M.bovis. Se analizó también la presencia de anticuerpos anti-M.paratuberculosis por ELISA, hallándose resultados positivos en 6 por ciento de los animales.