ABSTRACT
It has been reported that multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants of concerns (VOCs) including B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), P.1 (Gamma), and B.1.617.2 (Delta) can reduce neutralisation by antibodies, resulting in vaccine breakthrough infections. Virus-antiserum neutralisation assays are typically performed to monitor potential vaccine breakthrough strains. However, such experimental-based methods are slow and cannot instantly validate whether newly emerging variants can break through current vaccines or therapeutic antibodies. To address this, we sought to establish a computational model to predict the antigenicity of SARS-CoV-2 variants by sequence alone and in real time. In this study, we firstly identified the relationship between the antigenic difference transformed from the amino acid sequence and the antigenic distance from the neutralisation titres. Based on this correlation, we obtained a computational model for the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein to predict the fold decrease in virus-antiserum neutralisation titres with high accuracy (~0.79). Our predicted results were comparable with experimental neutralisation titres of variants, including B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), B.1.617.2 (Delta), B.1.429 (Epsilon), P.1 (Gamma), B.1.526 (Iota), B.1.617.1 (Kappa), and C.37 (Lambda), as well as SARS-CoV. Here, we firstly predicted the fold of decrease of B.1.1.529 (Omicron) as 17.4-fold less susceptible to neutralisation. We visualised all 1521 SARS-CoV-2 lineages to indicate variants including B.1.621 (Mu), B.1.630, B.1.633, B.1.649, and C.1.2, which can induce vaccine breakthrough infections in addition to reported VOCs B.1.351 (Beta), P.1 (Gamma), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and B.1.1.529 (Omicron). Our study offers a quick approach to predict the antigenicity of SARS-CoV-2 variants as soon as they emerge. Furthermore, this approach can facilitate future vaccine updates to cover all major variants. An online version can be accessed at http://jdlab.online.
ABSTRACT
The interplay between the virus, infected cells and the immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 is still under debate. Extending the basic model of viral dynamics we propose here a formal approach to describe the neutralizing versus weakly (or non-)neutralizing scenarios and compare with the possible effects of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). The theoretical model is consistent with data available from the literature; we show that weakly neutralizing antibodies or ADE can both give rise to either final virus clearance or disease progression, but the immuno-dynamic is different in each case. Given that a significant part of the world population is already naturally immunized or vaccinated, we also discuss the implications on secondary infections infections following vaccination or in presence of immune system dysfunctions.
ABSTRACT
In the fight against the spread of COVID-19 the emphasis is on vaccination or on reactivating existing drugs used for other purposes. The tight links that necessarily exist between the virus as it multiplies and the metabolism of its host are systematically ignored. Here we show that the metabolism of all cells is coordinated by the availability of a core building block of the cells genome, cytidine triphosphate (CTP). This metabolite is also the key to the synthesis of the viral envelope and to the translation of its genome into proteins. This unique role explains why evolution has led to the early emergence in animals of an antiviral immunity enzyme, viperin, that synthesizes a toxic analogue of CTP. The constraints arising from this dependency guide the evolution of the virus. With this in mind, we explored the real-time experiment taking place before our eyes using probabilistic modelling approaches to the molecular evolution of the virus. We have thus followed, almost on a daily basis, the evolution of the composition of the viral genome to link it to the progeny produced over time, particularly in the form of blooms that sparked a firework of viral mutations. Some of those certainly increase the propagation of the virus. This led us to make out the critical role in this evolution of several proteins of the virus, such as its nucleocapsid N, and more generally to begin to understand how the virus ties up the host metabolism to its own benefit. A way for the virus to escape CTP-dependent control in cells would be to infect cells that are not expected to grow, such as neurons. This may account for unexpected body sites of viral development in the present epidemic.
ABSTRACT
Fighting the COVID-19 epidemic summons deep understanding of the way SARS-CoV-2 taps into its host cell metabolic resources. We describe here the singular metabolic background that creates a bottleneck constraining coronaviruses to evolve towards likely attenuation in the long term. Cytidine triphosphate (CTP) is at the crossroad of the biosynthetic processes that allow the virus to multiply. This is because CTP is in demand for three essential steps. It is a building block of the virus genome, it is required for synthesis of the cytosine-based liponucleotide precursors of the viral envelope and, finally, it is a critical building block of the host transfer RNAs synthesis. The CCA 3-end of all the transfer RNAs required to translate the RNA genome and further transcripts into the proteins used to build active virus copies is not coded in the human genome. It must be synthesized de novo from CTP and ATP. Furthermore, intermediary metabolism is built on compulsory steps of synthesis and salvage of cytosine-based metabolites via uridine triphosphate (UTP) that keep limiting CTP availability. As a consequence, accidental replication errors tend to replace cytosine by uracil in the genome, unless recombination events allow the sequence to return to its ancestral sequences. We document some of the consequences of this situation in the function of viral proteins. We also highlight and provide a raison detre to viperin, an enzyme of innate antiviral immunity, which synthesizes 3-deoxy-3',4-didehydro-CTP (ddhCTP) as an extremely efficient antiviral nucleotide.
ABSTRACT
Motivated by historical and present clinical observations, we discuss the possible unfavorable evolution of the immunity (similar to documented antibody-dependent enhancement scenarios) after a first infection with COVID-19. More precisely we ask the question of how the epidemic outcomes are affected if the initial infection does not provide immunity but rather sensitization to future challenges. We first provide background comparison with the 2003 SARS epidemic. Then we use a compartmental epidemic model structured by immunity level that we fit to available data; using several scenarios of the fragilization dynamics, we derive quantitative insights into the additional expected numbers of severe cases and deaths.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundA novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) spread from the capital of the Hubei province in China to the rest of the country, then to most of the world. To anticipate future trends in the development of the epidemic, we explore here, based on public records of infected persons how variation in the virus tropism could end up in different patterns, warranting specific way to handle the epidemic. MethodsWe use a compartmental model to describe the evolution of an individual through several possible states: susceptible, infected, alternative infection, detected and removed. We fit the parameters of the model to the existing data taking into account significant quarantine changes where necessary. ResultsThe model indicates that Wuhan quarantine measures were effective but that alternative virus forms and a second propagation route are compatible with available data. For Singapore and Shenzhen region the secondary route does not seem to be active yet and the epidemic size limited. ConclusionsThe alternative infection tropism (the gut tropism) and a secondary propagation route are validated hypotheses using a model fitted by the available data. Corresponding prevention measures that take into account both routes should be implemented to the benefit of epidemic control.
