Development and validation of COEWS (COVID-19 Early Warning Score) for hospitalized COVID-19 with laboratory features: A multicontinental retrospective study.

Background: The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants with significant immune-evasiveness, the relaxation of measures for reducing the number of infections, the waning of immune protection (particularly in high-risk population groups), and the low uptake of new vaccine boosters, forecast new waves of hospitalizations and admission to intensive care units. There is an urgent need for easily implementable and clinically effective Early Warning Scores (EWSs) that can predict the risk of complications within the next 24-48 hr. Although EWSs have been used in the evaluation of COVID-19 patients, there are several clinical limitations to their use. Moreover, no models have been tested on geographically distinct populations or population groups with varying levels of immune protection. Methods: We developed and validated COVID-19 Early Warning Score (COEWS), an EWS that is automatically calculated solely from laboratory parameters that are widely available and affordable. We benchmarked COEWS against the widely used NEWS2. We also evaluated the predictive performance of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. Results: The variables of the COEWS predictive model were selected based on their predictive coefficients and on the wide availability of these laboratory variables. The final model included complete blood count, blood glucose, and oxygen saturation features. To make COEWS more actionable in real clinical situations, we transformed the predictive coefficients of the COEWS model into individual scores for each selected feature. The global score serves as an easy-to-calculate measure indicating the risk of a patient developing the combined outcome of mechanical ventilation or death within the next 48 hr.The discrimination in the external validation cohort was 0.743 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.703-0.784) for the COEWS score performed with coefficients and 0.700 (95% CI: 0.654-0.745) for the COEWS performed with scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. Additionally, we observed that the AUROC of the NEWS2 was 0.677 (95% CI: 0.601-0.752) in vaccinated patients and 0.648 (95% CI: 0.608-0.689) in unvaccinated patients. Conclusions: The COEWS score predicts death or MV within the next 48 hr based on routine and widely available laboratory measurements. The extensive external validation, its high performance, its ease of use, and its positive benchmark in comparison with the widely used NEWS2 position COEWS as a new reference tool for assisting clinical decisions and improving patient care in the upcoming pandemic waves. Funding: University of Vienna.

Combination therapy with tocilizumab and corticosteroids for aged patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia: a single-center retrospective study.

BackgroundThe role of combination immunomodulatory therapy with systemic corticosteroids and tocilizumab (TCZ) for aged patients with COVID-19-associated cytokine release syndrome remains unclear. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective single-center study including consecutive patients [≥]65 years that developed severe COVID-19 between March 3 and May 1, 2020 and were treated with corticosteroids at various doses (methylprednisolone [0.5 mg/Kg/12 hours to 250 mg/24 hours]), either alone ("CS group") or associated to intravenous tocilizumab (400-600 mg, one to three doses) ("CS-TCZ group"). Primary outcome was all-cause mortality by day +14, whereas secondary outcomes included mortality by day +28 and clinical improvement (discharge and/or a [≥]2-point decrease on a six-point ordinal scale) by day +14. Propensity score (PS)-based adjustment and inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) were applied. ResultsOverall, 181 and 80 patients were included in the CS and CS-TCZ groups. All-cause 14-day mortality was lower in the CS-TCZ group, both in the PS-adjusted (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.34; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.17 - 0.68; P-value = 0.002) and IPTW-weighted models (odds ratio [OR]: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.21 - 0.68; P-value = 0.001). This protective effect was also observed for 28-day mortality (PS-adjusted HR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.21 - 0.72; P-value = 0.003). Clinical improvement by day +14 was higher in the CS-TCZ group in the IPTW analysis only (OR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.49 - 3.41; P-value <0.001). The occurrence of secondary infection was similar between both groups. ConclusionsThe combination of corticosteroids and TCZ was associated with better outcomes among patients [≥]65 years with severe COVID-19.

Cognitive impairment is a common comorbidity in COVID-19 deceased patients. A hospital-based retrospective cohort study.

IntroductionLittle is known about the relation of cognitive impairment (CI) to COVID-19 mortality. Here, we analyse the frequency of CI in deceased COVID-19 patients. MethodsWe included 477 adult cases that died after admission from March 1 to March 31, 2020: 281 with confirmed COVID-19, 58 probable COVID-19, and 138 who died of other causes. ResultsThe number of comorbidities was high in the confirmed COVID-19, and CI was common (30%: 21.1% dementia; 8.9% mild cognitive impairment). Subjects with CI were older, more lived in nursing homes and had shorter times from symptom onset to death than those without CI. COVID-19 patients with CI were rarely admitted to the ICU and fewer received non-invasive mechanical ventilation, but palliative care was provided more often. ConclusionsDementia is a frequent comorbidity in COVID-19 deceased patients. The burden of COVID-19 in the dementia community will be high.