Effectiveness and durability of mRNA-1273 BA.4/BA.5 bivalent vaccine (mRNA-1273.222) against SARS-CoV-2 BA.4/BA.5 and XBB sublineages.

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 sublineages continue to cause serious COVID-19 disease, but most individuals have not received any COVID-19 vaccine for >1 year. Assessment of long-term effectiveness of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines against circulating sublineages is important to inform the potential need for vaccination with updated vaccines. In this test-negative study at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, sequencing-confirmed BA.4/BA.5- or XBB-related SARS-CoV-2-positive cases (September 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023), were matched 1:3 to SARS-CoV-2-negative controls. We assessed mRNA-1273 bivalent relative (rVE) and absolute vaccine effectiveness (VE) compared to ≥2 or 0 doses of original monovalent vaccine, respectively. The rVE analysis included 20,966 cases and 62,898 controls. rVE (95%CI) against BA.4/BA.5 at 14-60 days and 121-180 days was 52.7% (46.9-57.8%) and 35.5% (-2.8-59.5%) for infection, and 59.3% (49.7-67.0%) and 33.2% (-28.2-68.0%) for Emergency Department/Urgent Care (ED/UC) encounters. For BA.4/BA.5-related hospitalizations, rVE was 71.3% (44.9-85.1%) and 52.0% (-1.2-77.3%) at 14-60 days and 61-120 days, respectively. rVE against XBB at 14-60 days and 121-180 days was 48.8% (33.4-60.7%) and -3.9% (-18.1-11.3%) for infection, 70.7% (52.4-82.0%) and 15.7% (-6.0-33.2%) for ED/UC encounters, and 87.9% (43.8-97.4%) and 57.1% (17.0-77.8%) for hospitalization. VE and subgroup analyses (age, immunocompromised status, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection) results were similar to rVE analyses. rVE of mRNA-1273 bivalent vaccine against BA.4/BA.5 and XBB infections, ED/UC encounters, and hospitalizations waned over time. Periodic revaccination with vaccines targeting emerging variants may be important in reducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5.

Studies have reported reduced natural SARS-CoV-2 infection- and vaccine-induced neutralization against omicron BA.4/BA.5 compared with earlier omicron subvariants. This test-negative case-control study evaluates mRNA-1273 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection and hospitalization with omicron subvariants. The study includes 30,809 SARS-CoV-2 positive and 92,427 SARS-CoV-2 negative individuals aged ≥18 years tested during 1/1/2022-6/30/2022. While 3-dose VE against BA.1 infection is high and wanes slowly, VE against BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 infection is initially moderate to high (61.0%-90.6% 14-30 days post third dose) and wanes rapidly. The 4-dose VE against infection with BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.4 ranges between 64.3%-75.7%, and is low (30.8%) against BA.5 14-30 days post fourth dose, disappearing beyond 90 days for all subvariants. The 3-dose VE against hospitalization for BA.1, BA.2, and BA.4/BA.5 is 97.5%, 82.0%, and 72.4%, respectively; 4-dose VE against hospitalization for BA.4/BA.5 is 88.5%. Evaluation of the updated bivalent booster is warranted.

Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant is highly transmissible with potential immune escape. We conducted a test-negative case-control study to evaluate mRNA-1273 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection and hospitalization with Omicron or Delta. The large, diverse study population included 26,683 SARS-CoV-2 test-positive cases with variants determined by S gene target failure status (16% Delta and 84% Omicron). The two-dose VE against Omicron infection at 14-90 days was 44.0% (95% confidence interval, 35.1-51.6%) but declined quickly. The three-dose VE was 93.7% (92.2-94.9%) and 86.0% (78.1-91.1%) against Delta infection and 71.6% (69.7-73.4%) and 47.4% (40.5-53.5%) against Omicron infection at 14-60 days and >60 days, respectively. The three-dose VE was 29.4% (0.3-50.0%) against Omicron infection in immunocompromised individuals. The three-dose VE against hospitalization with Delta or Omicron was >99% across the entire study population. Our findings demonstrate high, durable three-dose VE against Delta infection but lower effectiveness against Omicron infection, particularly among immunocompromised people. However, three-dose VE of mRNA-1273 was high against hospitalization with Delta and Omicron variants.

Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 against delta, mu, and other emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2: test negative case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness of the mRNA-1273 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 variants and assess its effectiveness against the delta variant by time since vaccination. DESIGN: Test negative case-control study. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), an integrated healthcare system. PARTICIPANTS: Adult KPSC members with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test sent for whole genome sequencing or a negative test from 1 March 2021 to 27 July 2021. INTERVENTIONS: Two dose or one dose vaccination with mRNA-1273 (Moderna covid-19 vaccine) ≥14 days before specimen collection versus no covid-19 vaccination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes included infection with SARS-CoV-2 and hospital admission with covid-19. In pre-specified analyses for each variant type, test positive cases were matched 1:5 to test negative controls on age, sex, race/ethnicity, and specimen collection date. Conditional logistic regression was used to compare odds of vaccination among cases versus controls, with adjustment for confounders. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1-odds ratio)×100%. RESULTS: The study included 8153 cases and their matched controls. Two dose vaccine effectiveness was 86.7% (95% confidence interval 84.3% to 88.7%) against infection with the delta variant, 98.4% (96.9% to 99.1%) against alpha, 90.4% (73.9% to 96.5%) against mu, 96-98% against other identified variants, and 79.9% (76.9% to 82.5%) against unidentified variants (that is, specimens that failed sequencing). Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission with the delta variant was 97.5% (92.7% to 99.2%). Vaccine effectiveness against infection with the delta variant declined from 94.1% (90.5% to 96.3%) 14-60 days after vaccination to 80.0% (70.2% to 86.6%) 151-180 days after vaccination. Waning was less pronounced for non-delta variants. Vaccine effectiveness against delta infection was lower among people aged ≥65 years (75.2%, 59.6% to 84.8%) than those aged 18-64 years (87.9%, 85.5% to 89.9%). One dose vaccine effectiveness was 77.0% (60.7% to 86.5%) against infection with delta. CONCLUSIONS: Two doses of mRNA-1273 were highly effective against all SARS-CoV-2 variants, especially against hospital admission with covid-19. However, vaccine effectiveness against infection with the delta variant moderately declined with increasing time since vaccination.

Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in a Large Integrated Health Care System - California, March-July 2021.

Data from observational studies demonstrate that variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have evolved rapidly across many countries (1,2). The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of concern is more transmissible than previously identified variants,* and as of September 2021, is the predominant variant in the United States.† Studies characterizing the distribution and severity of illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 variants, particularly the Delta variant, are limited in the United States (3), and are subject to limitations related to study setting, specimen collection, study population, or study period (4-7). This study used whole genome sequencing (WGS) data on SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens collected across Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), a large integrated health care system, to describe the distribution and risk of hospitalization associated with SARS-CoV-2 variants during March 4-July 21, 2021, by patient vaccination status. Among 13,039 SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens identified from KPSC patients during this period, 6,798 (52%) were sequenced and included in this report. Of these, 5,994 (88%) were collected from unvaccinated persons, 648 (10%) from fully vaccinated persons, and 156 (2%) from partially vaccinated persons. Among all sequenced specimens, the weekly percentage of B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant infections increased from 20% to 67% during March 4-May 19, 2021. During April 15-July 21, 2021, the weekly percentage of Delta variant infections increased from 0% to 95%. During March 4-July 21, 2021, the weekly percentage of variants was similar among fully vaccinated and unvaccinated persons, but the Delta variant was more commonly identified among vaccinated persons then unvaccinated persons overall, relative to other variants. The Delta variant was more prevalent among younger persons, with the highest percentage (55%) identified among persons aged 18-44 years. Infections attributed to the Delta variant were also more commonly identified among non-Hispanic Black persons, relative to other variants. These findings reinforce the importance of continued monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variants and implementing multiple COVID-19 prevention strategies, particularly during the current period in which Delta is the predominant variant circulating in the United States.

Variation in SARS-CoV-2 molecular test sensitivity by specimen types in a large sample of emergency department patients.

BACKGROUND: Provider-collected nasopharyngeal specimens for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) molecular testing are the standard of care in many clinical settings, but patient-collected saliva and anterior nares specimens are less invasive and more flexible alternatives. Prior studies comparing specimen types for SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing have been limited by small sample sizes and low pretest probability. We conducted a large observational study among symptomatic adults at 7 emergency departments of Kaiser Permanente Southern California to examine sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 molecular tests by specimen type and patient characteristics. METHODS: Provider-collected nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) specimens and patient-collected saliva and anterior nares specimens were collected at the same visit and analyzed with the Roche cobas® SARS-CoV-2 assay. Patients were considered truly positive for SARS-CoV-2 if any of the three specimens was positive and negative if all three specimens were negative. Factors associated with discordant and missed positive results were examined with multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 2112 patients, 350 (16.6%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Sensitivity of NP/OP was 93.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 90.6%-96.0%), sensitivity of saliva was 87.7% (83.8%-91.0%), and sensitivity of anterior nares was 85.4% (81.3%-89.0%). Patients ages 18-39 years versus ≥40 years were more likely to have discordant results [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.97 (1.12-3.45)], as were patients with <4 symptoms versus ≥4 [aOR 2.43 (1.39-4.25)]. Cycle threshold values were higher for saliva and anterior nares than NP/OP specimens, as well as for specimens in discordant versus concordant sets and patients with fewer symptoms. CONCLUSION: This study provides robust evidence that patient-collected saliva and anterior nares are sensitive for SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing in emergency department settings, particularly among adults ages ≥40 years and those with multiple symptoms. Higher sensitivity of provider-collected NP/OP specimens must be weighed against the benefits of patient-collected specimens in tailored strategies for SARS-CoV-2 testing.