Climate change as a veiled driver of migration in Bangladesh and Ghana.

People living in deltaic areas in developing countries are especially prone to suffer the effects from natural disasters due to their geographical and economic structure. Climate change is contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events affecting the environmental conditions of deltas, threatening the socioeconomic development of people and, eventually, triggering migration as an adaptation strategy. Climate change will likely contribute to worsening environmental stress in deltas, and understanding the relations between climate change, environmental impacts, socioeconomic conditions, and migration is emerging as a key element for planning climate adaptation. In this study, we use data from migration surveys and econometric techniques to analyse the extent to which environmental impacts affect individual migration decision-making in two delta regions in Bangladesh and Ghana. The results show that, in both deltas, climatic shocks that negatively affect economic security are significant drivers of migration, although the surveyed households do not identify environmental pressures as the root cause of the displacement. Furthermore, environmental impacts affecting food security and crop and livestock production are also significant as events inducing people to migrate, but only in Ghana. We also find that suffering from environmental stress can intensify or reduce the effects of socioeconomic drivers. In this sense, adverse climatic shocks may not only have a direct impact on migration but may also condition migration decisions indirectly through the occupation, the education, or the marital status of the person. We conclude that although climate change and related environmental pressures are not perceived as key drivers of migration, they affect migration decisions through indirect channels (e.g., reducing economic security or reinforcing the effect of socioeconomic drivers).

Foreign multinationals affiliates and countries' carbon upstreamness. How could these firms support the fulfilment of emissions reduction targets?

Climate emergency requires urgent actions to reduce carbon emissions. In this paper we calculate the countries' carbon upstreamness and evaluate its linkage to the presence of foreign MNE affiliates, by using a multiregional input-output model with firm heterogeneity. We find a mismatch between carbon upstreamness, emissions reduction targets and income per capita between countries. OECD countries, which are located in the final stages of carbon production, have lower carbon intensity than the world average and have committed strongly to reducing their total emissions. On the contrary, non-OECD countries, which are located mainly in the initial stages of carbon production, maintain higher carbon intensity than the world average and they are less ambitiously committed, as they have lower per capita income. In that context, multinational enterprises (MNEs) could play a key role in supporting the fulfilment of emission reduction targets in host countries, so we propose a simulation to evaluate this role. Specifically, if the MNE affiliates adopt the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) set by the controlling country regardless of where they are located, the emissions of MNEs would be reduced by 15.6% (395,864 KtCO2), 4% more than they would be reduced under current emission reduction targets in 2016. However, if MNEs apply the more ambitious INDC, regardless of origin or destination, the emissions would be reduced by 18% (455,910 KtCO2), 7% more than scenario 1 and 1.7% of global emissions in 2016.

The carbon footprint of the U.S. multinationals' foreign affiliates.

Multinational enterprises (MNE) need to be a part of the solution in the fight against climate change, as claimed by investors and consumers, reducing emissions within their operations and supply chains. This paper measures the carbon footprint of U.S. MNE foreign affiliates (US-MNE) operating beyond the U.S. borders. Using a multiregional input-output model and information about US-MNE activities, the US-MNE carbon footprint ranks US-MNE as the 12th top emitter of the world. In relative terms, one dollar of value added generated by US-MNE affiliates operating abroad requires higher emissions than the domestic average and the ratio increases when only developing host countries are considered. Only 8% of total carbon footprint returns to the U.S. as virtual carbon embodied in the U.S. final consumption. Potential technology transfers between the U.S. parent company and affiliates to reduce US-MNE carbon footprint have been performed to evaluate potential rippled effects of mitigation actions.

Financial crisis, virtual carbon in global value chains, and the importance of linkage effects. The Spain-china case.

Trade has a disproportionate environmental impact, while the international fragmentation of production promotes different patterns of intermediate inputs and final goods. Therefore, we split up the balance of domestic embodied emissions in trade (BDEET) to assess it. We find that Spain has a significant emissions deficit with China between 2005 and 2011. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 reduced Spanish imports of pollution-intensive inputs from China and slightly improved the BDEET. China primarily exports indirect virtual carbon, representing 86% of the total, especially from Production of electricity, gas, and water sector. These linkages effects in China indicate that post-Kyoto agreements must focus not only on traded goods but also on the environmental efficiency of all domestic production chains. The methodology proposed allows us to identify the agents responsible for this trade in both Spain and China, namely the sectors importing intermediate inputs (Construction and Transport equipment) and industries and consumers importing final goods (Textiles, Other manufactures, Computers, and Machinery). The relevant sectors uncertainties found when we compare the results for BDEET and emissions embodied in bilateral trade (BEET) lead us to recommend the former methodology to evaluate the implications of environmental and energy policy for different industries and agents.