ABSTRACT
Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy, which accounts for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become dominant. In particular, the specific features of the variants (e.g. their increased transmission rate) and vaccines (e.g. their efficacy to prevent transmission, hospitalization and death) are modeled, based on clinical evidence. The new model is validated comparing its near-future forecast capabilities with other epidemiological models and exploring different scenario analyses.
ABSTRACT
An analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic is proposed on the basis of the epiMOX dashboard (publicly accessible at https://www.epimox.polimi.it) that deals with data of the epidemic trends and outbreaks in Italy from late February 2020. Our analysis provides an immediate appreciation of the past epidemic development, together with its current trends by fostering a deeper interpretation of available data through several critical epidemic indicators. In addition, we complement the epiMOX dashboard with a predictive tool based on an epidemiological compartmental model, named SUIHTER, for the forecast on the near future epidemic evolution.
