ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Healthcare utilization data are increasingly used for chronic disease surveillance. Nevertheless, no standard criteria for estimating prevalence of high-impact diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, are available. In this study an algorithm for recognizing COPD/asthma cases from HCU data is developed and implemented in the HCU databases of the Italian Lombardy Region (about 10 million residents). The impact of diagnostic misclassification for reliably estimating prevalence was also assessed. METHODS: Disease-specificdrug codes, hospital discharges together with co-payment exemptions when available, and a combination of them according with patient's age, were used to create the proposed algorithm. Identified cases were considered for prevalence estimation. An external validation study was also performed in order to evaluate systematic uncertainty of prevalence estimates. RESULTS: Raw prevalence of COPD and asthma in 2010 was 3.6 and 3.3% respectively. According to external validation, sensitivity values were 53% for COPD and 39% for asthma. Adjusted prevalence estimates were respectively 6.8 and 8.5% for COPD (among person aged 40 years or older) and asthma (among person aged 40 years or younger). CONCLUSIONS: COPD and asthma prevalence may be estimated from HCU data, albeit with high systematic uncertainty. Validation is recommended in this setting.
Subject(s)
Asthma/epidemiology , Databases, Factual , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Algorithms , Child , Child, Preschool , Chronic Disease , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Sensitivity and Specificity , Uncertainty , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Mortality figures become available after some years. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of deaths in 2011 from all cancers and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of deaths. Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates. RESULTS: The predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 was 1,281,436, with standardized rates of 143/100,000 men and 85/100,000 women. Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and leukemias, plus male lung cancer, will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. Female lung cancer rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of cancer death, as now in Poland. The increasing pancreatic cancer trends in women observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off. CONCLUSIONS: Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of cancer deaths are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist.
