Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity.

The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λS . Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λS decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λS . Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post-fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large-scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital-rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter-annual vital-rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital-rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter-annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global-change research is crucial.

Contrasting effects of climate change on seasonal survival of a hibernating mammal.

Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics.

Older mothers produce more successful daughters.

Annual reproductive success and senescence patterns vary substantially among individuals in the wild. However, it is still seldom considered that senescence may not only affect an individual but also affect age-specific reproductive success in its offspring, generating transgenerational reproductive senescence. We used long-term data from wild yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) living in two different elevational environments to quantify age-specific reproductive success of daughters born to mothers differing in age. Contrary to prediction, daughters born to older mothers had greater annual reproductive success on average than daughters born to younger mothers, and this translated into greater lifetime reproductive success. However, in the favorable lower elevation environment, daughters born to older mothers also had greater age-specific decreases in annual reproductive success. In the harsher higher elevation environment on the other hand, daughters born to older mothers tended to die before reaching ages at which such senescent decreases could be observed. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating environment-specific transgenerational parent age effects on adult offspring age-specific life-history traits to fully understand the substantial variation observed in senescence patterns in wild populations.

Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal.

Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor-analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual-based demography from yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive-status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi-extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments.

Transient LTRE analysis reveals the demographic and trait-mediated processes that buffer population growth.

Temporal variation in environmental conditions affects population growth directly via its impact on vital rates, and indirectly through induced variation in demographic structure and phenotypic trait distributions. We currently know very little about how these processes jointly mediate population responses to their environment. To address this gap, we develop a general transient life table response experiment (LTRE) which partitions the contributions to population growth arising from variation in (1) survival and reproduction, (2) demographic structure, (3) trait values and (4) climatic drivers. We apply the LTRE to a population of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to demonstrate the impact of demographic and trait-mediated processes. Our analysis provides a new perspective on demographic buffering, which may be a more subtle phenomena than is currently assumed. The new LTRE framework presents opportunities to improve our understanding of how trait variation influences population dynamics and adaptation in stochastic environments.

Age, state, environment, and season dependence of senescence in body mass.

Senescence is a highly variable process that comprises both age-dependent and state-dependent components and can be greatly affected by environmental conditions. However, few studies have quantified the magnitude of age-dependent and state-dependent senescence in key life-history traits across individuals inhabiting different spatially structured and seasonal environments. We used longitudinal data from wild female yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer), living in two adjacent environments that differ in elevation and associated phenology, to quantify how age and individual state, measured as "time to death," affect body mass senescence in different environments. Further, we quantified how patterns of senescence differed between two biologically distinct seasons, spring, and late summer. Body mass senescence had an age-dependent component, expressed as a decrease in mass in old age. Overall, estimated age-dependent senescence was greater in females living in the more favorable lower elevation environment, than in the harsher higher elevation environment, and greater in late summer than in spring. Body mass senescence also had a state-dependent component, captured by effects of time to death, but only in the more favorable lower elevation environment. In spring, body mass gradually decreased from 2 years before death, whereas in late summer, state-dependent effects were expressed as a terminal decrease in body mass in the last year of life. Contrary to expectations, we found that senescence was more likely to be observed under more favorable environmental conditions, rather than under harsher conditions. By further demonstrating that senescence patterns differ among seasons, our results imply that within-year temporal environmental variation must be considered alongside spatial environmental variation in order to characterize and understand the pattern and magnitude of senescence in wild populations.

Cumulative reproductive costs on current reproduction in a wild polytocous mammal.

The cumulative cost of reproduction hypothesis predicts that reproductive costs accumulate over an individual's reproductive life span. While short-term costs have been extensively explored, the prevalence of cumulative long-term costs and the circumstances under which such costs occur alongside or instead of short-term costs, are far from clear. Indeed, few studies have simultaneously tested for both short-term and cumulative long-term reproductive costs in natural populations. Even in mammals, comparatively little is known about cumulative effects of previous reproduction, especially in species with high variation in offspring numbers, where costs could vary among successful reproductive events. Here, we quantify effects of previous short-term and cumulative long-term reproduction on current reproduction probability and litter size in wild female yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and test how these effects vary with age and between two contrasting environments. We provide evidence for cumulative long-term effects: females that had both reproduced frequently and weaned large litters on average in previous years had decreased current reproduction probability. We found no evidence for short-term reproductive costs between reproductive bouts. However, females weaned larger litters when they had weaned larger litters on average in previous years and had lower current reproduction probability when their previous reproductive success was low. Together these results suggest that, alongside persistent among-individual variation, long-term reproductive history affects current reproductive success.

How life history influences population dynamics in fluctuating environments.

A major question in ecology is how age-specific variation in demographic parameters influences population dynamics. Based on long-term studies of growing populations of birds and mammals, we analyze population dynamics by using fluctuations in the total reproductive value of the population. This enables us to account for random fluctuations in age distribution. The influence of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the population dynamics of a species decreased with generation time. Variation in age-specific contributions to total reproductive value and to stochastic components of population dynamics was correlated with the position of the species along the slow-fast continuum of life-history variation. Younger age classes relative to the generation time accounted for larger contributions to the total reproductive value and to demographic stochasticity in "slow" than in "fast" species, in which many age classes contributed more equally. In contrast, fluctuations in population growth rate attributable to stochastic environmental variation involved a larger proportion of all age classes independent of life history. Thus, changes in population growth rates can be surprisingly well explained by basic species-specific life-history characteristics.

Sociality, individual fitness and population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

Social behaviour was proposed as a density-dependent intrinsic mechanism that could regulate an animal population by affecting reproduction and dispersal. Populations of the polygynous yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) fluctuate widely from year to year primarily driven by the number of weaned young. The temporal variation in projected population growth rate was driven mainly by changes in the age of first reproduction and fertility, which are affected by reproductive suppression. Dispersal is unrelated to population density, or the presence of the father; hence, neither of these limits population growth or acts as an intrinsic mechanism of population regulation; overall, intrinsic regulation seems unlikely. Sociality affects the likelihood of reproduction in that the annual probability of reproducing and the lifetime number of offspring are decreased by the number of older females and by the number of same-aged females present, but are increased by the number of younger adult females present. Recruitment of a yearling female is most likely when her mother is present; recruitment of philopatric females is much more important than immigration for increasing the number of adult female residents. Predation and overwinter mortality are the major factors limiting the number of resident adults. Social behaviour is not directed towards population regulation, but is best interpreted as functioning to maximize direct fitness.

Proximate causes of natal dispersal in female yellow-bellied marmots, Marmota flaviventris.

We investigated factors influencing natal dispersal in 231 female yearling yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) using comprehensive analysis of 10 years (1983-1993) of radiotelemetry and 37 years (1963-1999) of capture-mark-recapture data. Only individuals whose dispersal status was verified, primarily by radiotelemetry, were considered. Univariate analyses revealed that six of the 24 variables we studied significantly influenced dispersal: dispersal was less likely when the mother was present, amicable behavior with the mother and play behavior were more frequent, and spatial overlap was greater with the mother, with matriline females, and with other yearling females. Using both univariate and multivariate analyses, we tested several hypotheses proposed as proximate causes of dispersal. We rejected inbreeding avoidance, population density, body size, social intolerance, and kin competition as factors influencing dispersal. Instead, our results indicate that kin cooperation, expressed via cohesive behaviors and with a focus on the mother, influenced dispersal by promoting philopatry. Kin cooperation may be an underappreciated factor influencing dispersal in both social and nonsocial species.

Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change.

Environmental change has altered the phenology, morphological traits and population dynamics of many species. However, the links underlying these joint responses remain largely unknown owing to a paucity of long-term data and the lack of an appropriate analytical framework. Here we investigate the link between phenotypic and demographic responses to environmental change using a new methodology and a long-term (1976-2008) data set from a hibernating mammal (the yellow-bellied marmot) inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat. We demonstrate how earlier emergence from hibernation and earlier weaning of young has led to a longer growing season and larger body masses before hibernation. The resulting shift in both the phenotype and the relationship between phenotype and fitness components led to a decline in adult mortality, which in turn triggered an abrupt increase in population size in recent years. Direct and trait-mediated effects of environmental change made comparable contributions to the observed marked increase in population growth. Our results help explain how a shift in phenology can cause simultaneous phenotypic and demographic changes, and highlight the need for a theory integrating ecological and evolutionary dynamics in stochastic environments.

Influence of local demography on asymptotic and transient dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation.

Despite recent advances in biodemography and metapopulation ecology, we still have limited understanding of how local demographic parameters influence short- and long-term metapopulation dynamics. We used long-term data from 17 local populations, along with the recently developed methods of matrix metapopulation modeling and transient sensitivity analysis, to investigate the influence of local demography on long-term (asymptotic) versus short-term (transient) dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation in Colorado. Both long- and short-term dynamics depended primarily on a few colony sites and were highly sensitive to changes in demography at these sites, particularly in survival of reproductive adult females. Interestingly, the relative importance of sites differed between long- and short-term dynamics; the spatial structure and local population sizes, while insignificant for asymptotic dynamics, were influential on transient dynamics. However, considering the spatial structure was uninformative about the relative influence of local demography on metapopulation dynamics. The vital rates that were the most influential on local dynamics were also the most influential on both long- and short-term metapopulation dynamics. Our results show that an explicit consideration of local demography is essential for a complete understanding of the dynamics and persistence of spatially structured populations.

Senescence rates are determined by ranking on the fast-slow life-history continuum.

Comparative analyses of survival senescence by using life tables have identified generalizations including the observation that mammals senesce faster than similar-sized birds. These generalizations have been challenged because of limitations of life-table approaches and the growing appreciation that senescence is more than an increasing probability of death. Without using life tables, we examine senescence rates in annual individual fitness using 20 individual-based data sets of terrestrial vertebrates with contrasting life histories and body size. We find that senescence is widespread in the wild and equally likely to occur in survival and reproduction. Additionally, mammals senesce faster than birds because they have a faster life history for a given body size. By allowing us to disentangle the effects of two major fitness components our methods allow an assessment of the robustness of the prevalent life-table approach. Focusing on one aspect of life history - survival or recruitment - can provide reliable information on overall senescence.

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots.

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive rates is a common phenomenon in many wildlife populations, but the population dynamic consequences of spatial and temporal variability in different components of reproduction remain poorly understood. We used 43 years (1962-2004) of data from 17 locations and a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling framework to investigate the spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris), and its influence on the realized population growth rate. Specifically, we estimated and modeled breeding probabilities of two-year-old females (earliest age of first reproduction), >2-year-old females that have not reproduced before (subadults), and >2-year-old females that have reproduced before (adults), as well as the litter sizes of two-year old and >2-year-old females. Most reproductive parameters exhibited spatial and/or temporal variation. However, reproductive parameters differed with respect to their relative influence on the realized population growth rate (lambda). Litter size had a stronger influence than did breeding probabilities on both spatial and temporal variations in lambda. Our analysis indicated that lambda was proportionately more sensitive to survival than recruitment. However, the annual fluctuation in litter size, abetted by the breeding probabilities, accounted for most of the temporal variation in lambda.

Effects of patch quality and network structure on patch occupancy dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation.

1. The presence/absence of a species at a particular site is the simplest form of data that can be collected during ecological field studies. We used 13 years (1990-2002) of survey data to parameterize a stochastic patch occupancy model for a metapopulation of the yellow-bellied marmot in Colorado, and investigated the significance of particular patches and the influence of site quality, network characteristics and regional stochasticity on the metapopulation persistence. 2. Persistence of the yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation was strongly dependent on the high quality colony sites, and persistence probability was highly sensitive to small changes in the quality of these sites. 3. A relatively small number of colony sites was ultimately responsible for the regional persistence. However, lower quality satellite sites also made a significant contribution to long-term metapopulation persistence, especially when regional stochasticity was high. 4. The northern network of the marmot metapopulation was more stable compared to the southern network, and the persistence of the southern network depended heavily on the northern network. 5. Although complex models of metapopulation dynamics may provide a more accurate description of metapopulation dynamics, such models are data-intensive. Our study, one of the very few applications of stochastic patch occupancy models to a mammalian species, suggests that stochastic patch occupancy models can provide important insights into metapopulation dynamics using data that are easy to collect.

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.

Sociality and individual fitness in yellow-bellied marmots: insights from a long-term study (1962-2001).

Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that the age of first reproduction (the age at which reproduction begins) can have a substantial influence on population dynamics and individual fitness. Using complete survival and reproductive histories of 428 female yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) from a 40-year study (1962-2001), we investigated causes and fitness consequences of delayed maturity. Most females (86%) died without reproducing. The age of first reproduction of females that survived to reproduce at least once (n=60) ranged from 2 to 6 years. Females maturing later did not have a larger lifetime number of successful reproductive events or offspring production, nor did they experience improved survival. Females reproducing earlier had a higher fitness than those that delayed maturity. These results suggest that the net cost of early maturity was less than fitness benefits associated with early onset of reproduction, and that age of first reproduction in our study population is under substantial directional selection favoring early maturity. We conclude that female yellow-bellied marmots delay onset of reproduction not because of fitness benefits of foregoing reproduction at an earlier age, but due to the social suppression of reproduction by older, reproductive females, which enhances their own fitness to the detriment of the fitness of young females. Our results indicate that female yellow-bellied marmots that survive to reproduce may act to increase their own direct fitness, and that social suppression of reproduction of young females is a part of that strategy.

Energetics of hibernating yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris).

Yellow-bellied marmots (Rodentia: Sciuridae) typically hibernate for eight months. This study explored energetic costs of hibernation in young and adults at 10 and 6 degrees C. Age significantly affected the percent time torpid, total and mass-specific VO(2), use of energy during torpor, and daily mass loss at 6 degrees C. Thus young had a higher mass-specific VO(2) during a torpor bout, which was attributed to higher metabolism during deep torpor. Total VO(2) during a bout was higher in young and there were significant temperature/age interactions; young had a higher VO(2) during torpor and deep torpor at 6 degrees C than at 10 degrees C. VO(2) increased at T(E)s below 6 degrees C. Young had a higher daily mass loss than adults at 6 degrees C. Euthermy increased energetic costs 19.3 times over those of torpor and 23.5 times over those of deep torpor. Energy costs are minimized by spending 88.6% of the hibernation period in torpor, by the rapid decline of VO(2) from euthermy to torpor and by allowing T(B) to decline at low T(E). Torpidity results in average energy savings during winter of 83.3% of the costs of maintaining euthermy. Energy savings are greater than those reported for Marmota marmota and M. monax.

Group hibernation does not reduce energetic costs of young yellow-bellied marmots.

We investigated mechanisms of energy conservation during hibernation. The amount of time torpid was significantly less for groups of three young marmots than for marmots hibernating singly. Mean daily mass loss (DML; as mg d(-1) g(-1) immergence mass) averaged 1.33 for single marmots and 1.46 for grouped young. Animals were active 17.3% of the time, which used 82.4% of the energy, and were torpid 82.7% of the time, which used 17.6% of the energy expenditure. During longer torpor bouts, more time was spent in deep torpor, which decreased the hourly cost of a complete bout. Bout oxygen consumption V dot o2, percent time in deep torpor, and body temperature (T(B)) during deep torpor changed seasonally and were curvilinearly related to when in the hibernation period the measurements were made and probably represent a stage in the circannual metabolic cycle. The decrease of environmental temperature (T(E)) to 2 degrees C significantly increased metabolism. Potential costs of low T(E) were reduced by allowing T(B) to decrease, thereby reducing the T(B) to T(E) gradient. Average monthly metabolic rate was high early and late in the hibernation period when time spent euthermic was greater and when VO2 was higher. Over the hibernation period, energy saved averaged 77.1% and 88.0% of the costs for winter and summer euthermic metabolism, respectively. Hibernation costs were reduced by the seasonal changes, the high percentage of time in torpor, the rapid decline in V dot o2 following arousal, and allowing T(B) to decline at lower T(E). Asynchrony in the torpor cycles increased energy expenditures in group hibernators, which negated possible beneficial effects of group hibernation.