A third blind test of crystal structure prediction.

Following the interest generated by two previous blind tests of crystal structure prediction (CSP1999 and CSP2001), a third such collaborative project (CSP2004) was hosted by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. A range of methodologies used in searching for and ranking the likelihood of predicted crystal structures is represented amongst the 18 participating research groups, although most are based on the global minimization of the lattice energy. Initially the participants were given molecular diagrams of three molecules and asked to submit three predictions for the most likely crystal structure of each. Unlike earlier blind tests, no restriction was placed on the possible space group of the target crystal structures. Furthermore, Z' = 2 structures were allowed. Part-way through the test, a partial structure report was discovered for one of the molecules, which could no longer be considered a blind test. Hence, a second molecule from the same category (small, rigid with common atom types) was offered to the participants as a replacement. Success rates within the three submitted predictions were lower than in the previous tests - there was only one successful prediction for any of the three ;blind' molecules. For the ;simplest' rigid molecule, this lack of success is partly due to the observed structure crystallizing with two molecules in the asymmetric unit. As in the 2001 blind test, there was no success in predicting the structure of the flexible molecule. The results highlight the necessity for better energy models, capable of simultaneously describing conformational and packing energies with high accuracy. There is also a need for improvements in search procedures for crystals with more than one independent molecule, as well as for molecules with conformational flexibility. These are necessary requirements for the prediction of possible thermodynamically favoured polymorphs. Which of these are actually realised is also influenced by as yet insufficiently understood processes of nucleation and crystal growth.

Physics-based protein-structure prediction using a hierarchical protocol based on the UNRES force field: assessment in two blind tests.

Recent improvements in the protein-structure prediction method developed in our laboratory, based on the thermodynamic hypothesis, are described. The conformational space is searched extensively at the united-residue level by using our physics-based UNRES energy function and the conformational space annealing method of global optimization. The lowest-energy coarse-grained structures are then converted to an all-atom representation and energy-minimized with the ECEPP/3 force field. The procedure was assessed in two recent blind tests of protein-structure prediction. During the first blind test, we predicted large fragments of alpha and alpha+beta proteins [60-70 residues with C(alpha) rms deviation (rmsd) <6 A]. However, for alpha+beta proteins, significant topological errors occurred despite low rmsd values. In the second exercise, we predicted whole structures of five proteins (two alpha and three alpha+beta, with sizes of 53-235 residues) with remarkably good accuracy. In particular, for the genomic target TM0487 (a 102-residue alpha+beta protein from Thermotoga maritima), we predicted the complete, topologically correct structure with 7.3-A C(alpha) rmsd. So far this protein is the largest alpha+beta protein predicted based solely on the amino acid sequence and a physics-based potential-energy function and search procedure. For target T0198, a phosphate transport system regulator PhoU from T. maritima (a 235-residue mainly alpha-helical protein), we predicted the topology of the whole six-helix bundle correctly within 8 A rmsd, except the 32 C-terminal residues, most of which form a beta-hairpin. These and other examples described in this work demonstrate significant progress in physics-based protein-structure prediction.

The protein folding problem: global optimization of the force fields.

The evolutionary development of a theoretical approach to the protein folding problem, in our laboratory, is traced. The theoretical foundations and the development of a suitable empirical all-atom potential energy function and a global optimization search are examined. Whereas the all-atom approach has thus far succeeded for relatively small molecules and for alpha-helical proteins containing up to 46 residues, it has been necessary to develop a hierarchical approach to treat larger proteins. In the hierarchical approach to single- and multiple-chain proteins, global optimization is carried out for a simplified united residue (UNRES) description of a polypeptide chain to locate the region in which the global minimum lies. Conversion of the UNRES structures in this region to all-atom structures is followed by a local search in this region. The performance of this approach in successive CASP blind tests for predicting protein structure by an ab initio physics-based method is described. Finally, a recent attempt to compute a folding pathway is discussed.

Conformation-family Monte Carlo: a new method for crystal structure prediction.

A new global optimization method, Conformation-family Monte Carlo, has been developed recently for searching the conformational space of macromolecules. In the present paper, we adapted this method for prediction of crystal structures of organic molecules without assuming any symmetry constraints except the number of molecules in the unit cell. This method maintains a database of low energy structures that are clustered into families. The structures in this database are improved iteratively by a Metropolis-type Monte Carlo procedure together with energy minimization, in which the search is biased toward the regions of the lowest energy families. The Conformation-family Monte Carlo method is applied to a set of nine rigid and flexible organic molecules by using two popular force fields, AMBER and W99. The method performed well for the rigid molecules and reasonably well for the molecules with torsional degrees of freedom.

Recent improvements in prediction of protein structure by global optimization of a potential energy function.

Recent improvements of a hierarchical ab initio or de novo approach for predicting both alpha and beta structures of proteins are described. The united-residue energy function used in this procedure includes multibody interactions from a cumulant expansion of the free energy of polypeptide chains, with their relative weights determined by Z-score optimization. The critical initial stage of the hierarchical procedure involves a search of conformational space by the conformational space annealing (CSA) method, followed by optimization of an all-atom model. The procedure was assessed in a recent blind test of protein structure prediction (CASP4). The resulting lowest-energy structures of the target proteins (ranging in size from 70 to 244 residues) agreed with the experimental structures in many respects. The entire experimental structure of a cyclic alpha-helical protein of 70 residues was predicted to within 4.3 A alpha-carbon (C(alpha)) rms deviation (rmsd) whereas, for other alpha-helical proteins, fragments of roughly 60 residues were predicted to within 6.0 A C(alpha) rmsd. Whereas beta structures can now be predicted with the new procedure, the success rate for alpha/beta- and beta-proteins is lower than that for alpha-proteins at present. For the beta portions of alpha/beta structures, the C(alpha) rmsd's are less than 6.0 A for contiguous fragments of 30-40 residues; for one target, three fragments (of length 10, 23, and 28 residues, respectively) formed a compact part of the tertiary structure with a C(alpha) rmsd less than 6.0 A. Overall, these results constitute an important step toward the ab initio prediction of protein structure solely from the amino acid sequence.