Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts.

Earth's biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities, and habitat loss, many of which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, and society and develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C and effectively conserving and restoring functional ecosystems on 30 to 50% of land, freshwater, and ocean "scapes." We envision a mosaic of interconnected protected and shared spaces, including intensively used spaces, to strengthen self-sustaining biodiversity, the capacity of people and nature to adapt to and mitigate climate change, and nature's contributions to people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, and planetary health for a livable future urgently requires bold implementation of transformative policy interventions through interconnected institutions, governance, and social systems from local to global levels.

Forest production efficiency increases with growth temperature.

Forest production efficiency (FPE) metric describes how efficiently the assimilated carbon is partitioned into plants organs (biomass production, BP) or-more generally-for the production of organic matter (net primary production, NPP). We present a global analysis of the relationship of FPE to stand-age and climate, based on a large compilation of data on gross primary production and either BP or NPP. FPE is important for both forest production and atmospheric carbon dioxide uptake. We find that FPE increases with absolute latitude, precipitation and (all else equal) with temperature. Earlier findings-FPE declining with age-are also supported by this analysis. However, the temperature effect is opposite to what would be expected based on the short-term physiological response of respiration rates to temperature, implying a top-down regulation of carbon loss, perhaps reflecting the higher carbon costs of nutrient acquisition in colder climates. Current ecosystem models do not reproduce this phenomenon. They consistently predict lower FPE in warmer climates, and are therefore likely to overestimate carbon losses in a warming climate.

Impacts of extreme summers on European ecosystems: a comparative analysis of 2003, 2010 and 2018.

In Europe, three widespread extreme summer drought and heat (DH) events have occurred in 2003, 2010 and 2018. These events were comparable in magnitude but varied in their geographical distribution and biomes affected. In this study, we perform a comparative analysis of the impact of the DH events on ecosystem CO2 fluxes over Europe based on an ensemble of 11 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), and the observation-based FLUXCOM product. We find that all DH events were associated with decreases in net ecosystem productivity (NEP), but the gross summer flux anomalies differ between DGVMs and FLUXCOM. At the annual scale, FLUXCOM and DGVMs indicate close to neutral or above-average land CO2 uptake in DH2003 and DH2018, due to increased productivity in spring and reduced respiration in autumn and winter compensating for less photosynthetic uptake in summer. Most DGVMs estimate lower gross primary production (GPP) sensitivity to soil moisture during extreme summers than FLUXCOM. Finally, we show that the different impacts of the DH events at continental-scale GPP are in part related to differences in vegetation composition of the regions affected and to regional compensating or offsetting effects from climate anomalies beyond the DH centres. This article is part of the theme issue 'Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'.

Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity.

In summer 2018, central and northern Europe were stricken by extreme drought and heat (DH2018). The DH2018 differed from previous events in being preceded by extreme spring warming and brightening, but moderate rainfall deficits, yet registering the fastest transition between wet winter conditions and extreme summer drought. Using 11 vegetation models, we show that spring conditions promoted increased vegetation growth, which, in turn, contributed to fast soil moisture depletion, amplifying the summer drought. We find regional asymmetries in summer ecosystem carbon fluxes: increased (reduced) sink in the northern (southern) areas affected by drought. These asymmetries can be explained by distinct legacy effects of spring growth and of water-use efficiency dynamics mediated by vegetation composition, rather than by distinct ecosystem responses to summer heat/drought. The asymmetries in carbon and water exchanges during spring and summer 2018 suggest that future land-management strategies could influence patterns of summer heat waves and droughts under long-term warming.

Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary.

Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change.

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Key knowledge and data gaps in modelling the influence of CO2 concentration on the terrestrial carbon sink.

Primary productivity of terrestrial vegetation is expected to increase under the influence of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). Depending on the fate of such additionally fixed carbon, this could lead to an increase in terrestrial carbon storage, and thus a net terrestrial sink of atmospheric carbon. Such a mechanism is generally believed to be the primary global driver behind the observed large net uptake of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by the biosphere. Mechanisms driving CO2 uptake in the Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBMs) used to attribute and project terrestrial carbon sinks, including that from increased [CO2], remain in large parts unchanged since those models were conceived two decades ago. However, there exists a large body of new data and understanding providing an opportunity to update these models, and directing towards important topics for further research. In this review we highlight recent developments in understanding of the effects of elevated [CO2] on photosynthesis, and in particular on the fate of additionally fixed carbon within the plant with its implications for carbon turnover rates, on the regulation of photosynthesis in response to environmental limitations on in-plant carbon sinks, and on emergent ecosystem responses. We recommend possible avenues for model improvement and identify requirements for better data on core processes relevant to the understanding and modelling of the effect of increasing [CO2] on the global terrestrial carbon sink.

An ecosystem-scale perspective of the net land methanol flux: synthesis of micrometeorological flux measurements.

Methanol is the second most abundant volatile organic compound in the troposphere and plays a significant role in atmospheric chemistry. While there is consensus about the dominant role of living plants as the major source and the reaction with OH as the major sink of methanol, global methanol budgets diverge considerably in terms of source/sink estimates reflecting uncertainties in the approaches used to model, and the empirical data used to separately constrain these terms. Here we compiled micrometeorological methanol flux data from eight different study sites and reviewed the corresponding literature in order to provide a first cross-site synthesis of the terrestrial ecosystem-scale methanol exchange and present an independent data-driven view of the land-atmosphere methanol exchange. Our study shows that the controls of plant growth on the production, and thus the methanol emission magnitude, and stomatal conductance on the hourly methanol emission variability, established at the leaf level, hold across sites at the ecosystem-level. Unequivocal evidence for bi-directional methanol exchange at the ecosystem scale is presented. Deposition, which at some sites even exceeds methanol emissions, represents an emerging feature of ecosystem-scale measurements and is likely related to environmental factors favouring the formation of surface wetness. Methanol may adsorb to or dissolve in this surface water and eventually be chemically or biologically removed from it. Management activities in agriculture and forestry are shown to increase local methanol emission by orders of magnitude; they are however neglected at present in global budgets. While contemporary net land methanol budgets are overall consistent with the grand mean of the micrometeorological methanol flux measurements, we caution that the present approach of simulating methanol emission and deposition separately is prone to opposing systematic errors and does not allow taking full advantage of the rich information content of micrometeorological flux measurements.

Global emissions of terpenoid VOCs from terrestrial vegetation in the last millennium.

We investigated the millennial variability (1000 A.D.-2000 A.D.) of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene, and sesquiterpene, and Lund-Potsdam-Jena-General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends of global isoprene emissions to be mostly affected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission trends were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have significant short-term global effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr-1 (13% and 19% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively), and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr-1(15% and 20% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr-1(10% and 6% higher than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr-1 (2% higher and 5% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr-1(10% and 4% higher than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar emission trends, the magnitude of the emissions are different. This highlights the importance of building better constraints on VOC emissions from terrestrial vegetation.

Photosynthetic properties of C4 plants growing in an African savanna/wetland mosaic.

Photosynthesis rates and photosynthesis-leaf nutrient relationships were analysed in nine tropical grass and sedge species growing in three different ecosystems: a rain-fed grassland, a seasonal floodplain, and a permanent swamp, located along a hydrological gradient in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. These investigations were conducted during the rainy season, at a time of the year when differences in growth conditions between the sites were relatively uniform. At the permanent swamp, the largest variations were found for area-based leaf nitrogen contents, from 20 mmol m(-2) to 140 mmol m(-2), nitrogen use efficiencies (NUE), from 0.2 mmol (C) mol(-1) (N) s(-1) to 2.0 mmol (C) mol(-1) (N) s(-1), and specific leaf areas (SLA), from 50 cm(2) g(-1) to 400 cm(2) g(-1). For the vegetation growing at the rain-fed grassland, the highest leaf gas exchange rates, high leaf nutrient levels, a low ratio of intercellular to ambient CO(2) concentration, and high carboxylation efficiency were found. Taken together, these observations indicate a very efficient growth strategy that is required for survival and reproduction during the relatively brief period of water availability. The overall lowest values of light-saturated photosynthesis (A(sat)) were observed at the seasonal floodplain; around 25 micromol m(-2) s(-1) and 30 micromol m(-2) s(-1). To place these observations into the broader context of functional leaf trait analysis, relationships of photosynthesis rates, specific leaf area, and foliar nutrient levels were plotted, in the same way as was done for previously published 'scaling relationships' that are based largely on C(3) plants, noting the differences in the analyses between this study and the previous study. The within- and across-species variation in both A(sat) and SLA appeared better predicted by foliar phosphorus content (dry mass or area basis) rather than by foliar nitrogen concentrations, possibly because the availability of phosphorus is even more critical than the availability of nitrogen in the studied relatively oligotrophic ecosystems.

Effects of species composition, land surface cover, CO2 concentration and climate on isoprene emissions from European forests.

Emissions of isoprene from terrestrial vegetation are known to affect atmospheric chemical properties, like its oxidation capacity or the concentration of tropospheric ozone. The latter is of concern, since besides being a potent greenhouse gas, O(3) is toxic for humans, animals, and plants even at relatively low concentrations. Isoprene-emitting forests in the vicinity of NO(x) pollution sources (like cities) can contribute considerably to O(3) formation, and to the peak concentrations observed during hot summer weather. The biogenic contribution to O(3) concentrations is generally thought to increase in a future, warmer climate--pushing values beyond health thresholds possibly even more frequently and over larger areas--given that emissions of isoprene are highly temperature-dependent but also because of the CO(2) fertilisation of forest productivity and leaf growth. Most projections of future emissions, however, do not include the possible CO(2)-inhibition of leaf isoprene metabolism. We explore the regional distribution of emissions from European woody vegetation, using a mechanistic isoprene-dynamic vegetation model framework. We investigate the interactive effects of climate and CO(2) concentration on forest productivity, species composition, and isoprene emissions for the periods 1981-2000 and 2081-2100. Our projection of future emissions includes a direct CO(2)-isoprene inhibition. Across the model domain, we show that this direct effect has the potential to offset the stimulation of emissions that could be expected from warmer temperatures and from the increased productivity and leaf area of emitting vegetation. Changes in forest species composition that may result from climate change can play a substantial additional role in a region's future emissions. Changes in forest area or area planted in woody biofuels in general are not noticeable in the overall European forest isoprene budget, but--as was the case for changes in species composition--may substantially affect future projections in some regions of the continent.

Net ecosystem productivity, net primary productivity and ecosystem carbon sequestration in a Pinus radiata plantation subject to soil water deficit.

Tree carbon (C) uptake (net primary productivity excluding fine root turnover, NPP') in a New Zealand Pinus radiata D. Don plantation (42 degrees 52' S, 172 degrees 45' E) growing in a region subject to summer soil water deficit was investigated jointly with canopy assimilation (A(c)) and ecosystem-atmosphere C exchange rate (net ecosystem productivity, NEP). Net primary productivity was derived from biweekly stem diameter growth measurements using allometric relations, established after selective tree harvesting, and a litterfall model. Estimates of A(c) and NEP were used to drive a biochemically based and environmentally constrained model validated by seasonal eddy covariance measurements. Over three years with variable rainfall, NPP' varied between 8.8 and 10.6 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1), whereas A(c) and NEP were 16.9 to 18.4 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) and 5.0-7.2 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1), respectively. At the end of the growing season, C was mostly allocated to wood, with nearly half (47%) to stems and 27% to coarse roots. On an annual basis, the ratio of NEP to stand stem volume growth rate was 0.24 +/- 0.02 Mg C m(-3). The conservative nature of this ratio suggests that annual NEP can be estimated from forest yield tables. On a biweekly basis, NPP' repeatedly lagged A(c), suggesting the occurrence of intermediate C storage. Seasonal NPP'/A(c) thus varied between nearly zero and one. On an annual basis, however, NPP'/A(c) was 0.54 +/- 0.03, indicating a conservative allocation of C to autotrophic respiration. In the water-limited environment, variation in C sequestration rate was largely accounted for by a parameter integrative for changes in soil water content. The combination of mensurational data with canopy and ecosystem C fluxes yielded an estimate of heterotrophic respiration (NPP' - NEP) approximately 30% of NPP' and approximately 50% of NEP. The estimation of fine-root turnover rate is discussed.

Environmental regulation of xylem sap flow and total conductance of Larix gmelinii trees in eastern Siberia.

Xylem sap flow and environmental variables were measured on seven consecutive midsummer days in a 130-year-old Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. forest located 160 km south of Yakutsk in eastern Siberia, Russia (61 degrees N, 128 degrees E, 300 m asl). The site received 20 mm of rainfall during the 4 days before measurements, and soil samples indicated that the trees were well watered. The tree canopy was sparse with a one-sided leaf area index of 1.5 and a tree density of 1760 ha(-1). On a clear day when air temperature ranged from 9 to 29 degrees C, and maximum air saturation deficit was 3.4 kPa, daily xylem sap flux (F) among 13 trees varied by an order of magnitude from 7 l day(-1) for subcanopy trees (representing 55% of trees in the forest) to 67 l day(-1) for emergent trees (representing 18% of trees in the forest). However, when based on xylem sap flux density (F'), calculated by dividing F by projected tree crown area (a surrogate for the occupied ground area), there was only a fourfold range in variability among the 13 trees, from 1.0 to 4.4 mm day(-1). The calculation of F' also eliminated systematic and large differences in F among emergent, canopy and subcanopy trees. Stand-level F', estimated by combining half-hourly linear relationships between F and stem cross-sectional area with tree size distribution data, ranged between 1.8 +/- 0.4 (standard deviation) and 2.3 +/- 0.6 mm day(-1). These stand-level F' values are about 0.6-0.7 mm day(-1) (30%) larger than daily tree canopy transpiration rates calculated from forest energy balance and understory evaporation measurements. Maximum total tree conductance for water vapor transfer (G(tmax), including canopy and aerodynamic conductances), calculated from the ratio of F' and the above-canopy air saturation deficit (D) for the eight trees with continuous data sets, was 9.9 +/- 2.8 mm s(-1). This is equivalent to a leaf-scale maximum stomatal conductance (g(smax)) of 6.1 mm s(-1), when expressed on a one-sided leaf area basis, which is comparable to the published porometer data for Larix. Diurnal variation in total tree conductance (G(t)) was related to changes in the above-canopy visible irradiance (Q) and D. A saturating upper-boundary function for the relationship between G(t) and Q was defined as G(t) = G(tmax)(Q/[Q + Q(50)]), where Q(50) = 164 +/- 85 micro mol m(-2) s(-1) when G(t) = G(tmax)/2. Accounting for Q by excluding data for Q < Q(85) when G(t) was at least 85% of G(tmax), the upper limit for the relationship between G(t) and D was determined based on the function G(t) = (a + blnD)(2), where a and b are regression coefficients. The relationship between G(t) and D was curvilinear, indicating that there was a proportional decrease in G(t) with increasing D such that F was relatively constant throughout much of the day, even when D ranged between about 2 and 4 kPa, which may be interpreted as an adaption of the species to its continental climate. However, at given values of Q and D, G(t) was generally higher in the morning than in the afternoon. The additional environmental constraints on G(t) imposed by leaf nitrogen nutrition and afternoon water stress are discussed.