Irreversibility of symbolic time series: A cautionary tale.

Many empirical time series are genuinely symbolic: Examples range from link activation patterns in network science, to DNA coding or firing patterns in neuroscience, to cryptography or combinatorics on words. In some other contexts, the underlying time series is actually real valued, and symbolization is applied subsequently, as in symbolic dynamics of chaotic systems. Among several time series quantifiers, time series irreversibility-the difference between forward and backward statistics in stationary time series-is of great relevance. However, the irreversible character of symbolized time series is not always equivalent to the one of the underlying real-valued signal, leading to some misconceptions and confusion on interpretability. Such confusion is even bigger for binary time series-a classical way to encode chaotic trajectories via symbolic dynamics. In this paper we aim to clarify some usual misconceptions and provide theoretical grounding for the practical analysis-and interpretation-of time irreversibility in symbolic time series. We outline sources of irreversibility in stationary symbolic sequences coming from frequency asymmetries of nonpalindromic pairs which we enumerate, and prove that binary time series cannot show any irreversibility based on words of length m<4, thus discussing the implications and sources of confusion. We also study irreversibility in the context of symbolic dynamics, and clarify why these can be reversible even when the underlying dynamical system is not, such as the case of the fully chaotic logistic map.

Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups.

Together with seasonal effects inducing outdoor or indoor activities, the gradual easing of prophylaxis caused second and third waves of SARS-CoV-2 to emerge in various countries. Interestingly, data indicate that the proportion of infections belonging to the elderly is particularly small during periods of low prevalence and continuously increases as case numbers increase. This effect leads to additional stress on the health care system during periods of high prevalence. Furthermore, infections peak with a slight delay of about a week among the elderly compared to the younger age groups. Here, we provide a mechanistic explanation for this phenomenology attributable to a heterogeneous prophylaxis induced by the age-specific severity of the disease. We model the dynamical adoption of prophylaxis through a two-strategy game and couple it with an SIR spreading model. Our results also indicate that the mixing of contacts among the age groups strongly determines the delay between their peaks in prevalence and the temporal variation in the distribution of cases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance'.

Geometric unfolding of synchronization dynamics on networks.

We study the synchronized state in a population of network-coupled, heterogeneous oscillators. In particular, we show that the steady-state solution of the linearized dynamics may be written as a geometric series whose subsequent terms represent different spatial scales of the network. Specifically, each additional term incorporates contributions from wider network neighborhoods. We prove that this geometric expansion converges for arbitrary frequency distributions and for both undirected and directed networks provided that the adjacency matrix is primitive. We also show that the error in the truncated series grows geometrically with the second largest eigenvalue of the normalized adjacency matrix, analogously to the rate of convergence to the stationary distribution of a random walk. Last, we derive a local approximation for the synchronized state by truncating the spatial series, at the first neighborhood term, to illustrate the practical advantages of our approach.

Uncertainty propagation in complex networks: From noisy links to critical properties.

Many complex networks are built up from empirical data prone to experimental error. Thus, the determination of the specific weights of the links is a noisy measure. Noise propagates to those macroscopic variables researchers are interested in, such as the critical threshold for synchronization of coupled oscillators or for the spreading of a disease. Here, we apply error propagation to estimate the macroscopic uncertainty in the critical threshold for some dynamical processes in networks with noisy links. We obtain closed form expressions for the mean and standard deviation of the critical threshold depending on the properties of the noise and the moments of the degree distribution of the network. The analysis provides confidence intervals for critical predictions when dealing with uncertain measurements or intrinsic fluctuations in empirical networked systems. Furthermore, our results unveil a nonmonotonous behavior of the uncertainty of the critical threshold that depends on the specific network structure.

Synchronization invariance under network structural transformations.

Synchronization processes are ubiquitous despite the many connectivity patterns that complex systems can show. Usually, the emergence of synchrony is a macroscopic observable; however, the microscopic details of the system, as, e.g., the underlying network of interactions, is many times partially or totally unknown. We already know that different interaction structures can give rise to a common functionality, understood as a common macroscopic observable. Building upon this fact, here we propose network transformations that keep the collective behavior of a large system of Kuramoto oscillators invariant. We derive a method based on information theory principles, that allows us to adjust the weights of the structural interactions to map random homogeneous in-degree networks into random heterogeneous networks and vice versa, keeping synchronization values invariant. The results of the proposed transformations reveal an interesting principle; heterogeneous networks can be mapped to homogeneous ones with local information, but the reverse process needs to exploit higher-order information. The formalism provides analytical insight to tackle real complex scenarios when dealing with uncertainty in the measurements of the underlying connectivity structure.