Synergistic interactions among growing stressors increase risk to an Arctic ecosystem.

Oceans provide critical ecosystem services, but are subject to a growing number of external pressures, including overfishing, pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. Current models typically treat stressors on species and ecosystems independently, though in reality, stressors often interact in ways that are not well understood. Here, we use a network interaction model (OSIRIS) to explicitly study stressor interactions in the Chukchi Sea (Arctic Ocean) due to its extensive climate-driven loss of sea ice and accelerated growth of other stressors, including shipping and oil exploration. The model includes numerous trophic levels ranging from phytoplankton to polar bears. We find that climate-related stressors have a larger impact on animal populations than do acute stressors like increased shipping and subsistence harvesting. In particular, organisms with a strong temperature-growth rate relationship show the greatest changes in biomass as interaction strength increased, but also exhibit the greatest variability. Neglecting interactions between stressors vastly underestimates the risk of population crashes. Our results indicate that models must account for stressor interactions to enable responsible management and decision-making.

Changes in phytoplankton concentration now drive increased Arctic Ocean primary production.

Historically, sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean has promoted increased phytoplankton primary production because of the greater open water area and a longer growing season. However, debate remains about whether primary production will continue to rise should sea ice decline further. Using an ocean color algorithm parameterized for the Arctic Ocean, we show that primary production increased by 57% between 1998 and 2018. Surprisingly, whereas increases were due to widespread sea ice loss during the first decade, the subsequent rise in primary production was driven primarily by increased phytoplankton biomass, which was likely sustained by an influx of new nutrients. This suggests a future Arctic Ocean that can support higher trophic-level production and additional carbon export.

Impacts of atmospheric anthropogenic nitrogen on the open ocean.

Increasing quantities of atmospheric anthropogenic fixed nitrogen entering the open ocean could account for up to about a third of the ocean's external (nonrecycled) nitrogen supply and up to approximately 3% of the annual new marine biological production, approximately 0.3 petagram of carbon per year. This input could account for the production of up to approximately 1.6 teragrams of nitrous oxide (N2O) per year. Although approximately 10% of the ocean's drawdown of atmospheric anthropogenic carbon dioxide may result from this atmospheric nitrogen fertilization, leading to a decrease in radiative forcing, up to about two-thirds of this amount may be offset by the increase in N2O emissions. The effects of increasing atmospheric nitrogen deposition are expected to continue to grow in the future.

Rapid and early export of Phaeocystis antarctica blooms in the Ross Sea, Antarctica.

The Southern Ocean is very important for the potential sequestration of carbon dioxide in the oceans and is expected to be vulnerable to changes in carbon export forced by anthropogenic climate warming. Annual phytoplankton blooms in seasonal ice zones are highly productive and are thought to contribute significantly to pCO2 drawdown in the Southern Ocean. Diatoms are assumed to be the most important phytoplankton class with respect to export production in the Southern Ocean; however, the colonial prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis antarctica regularly forms huge blooms in seasonal ice zones and coastal Antarctic waters. There is little evidence regarding the fate of carbon produced by P. antarctica in the Southern Ocean, although remineralization in the upper water column has been proposed to be the main pathway in polar waters. Here we present evidence for early and rapid carbon export from P. antarctica blooms to deep water and sediments in the Ross Sea. Carbon sequestration from P. antarctica blooms may influence the carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean, especially if projected climatic changes lead to an alteration in the structure of the phytoplankton community.

Spring phytoplankton production in the Western ross sea.

Coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) imagery of the western Ross Sea revealed the Presence of an intense phytoplankton bloom covering >106,000 square kilometers in early December 1978. This bloom developed inside the Ross Sea polynya, within 2 weeks of initial polynya formation in late November. Primary productivity calculated from December imagery (3.9 grams of carbon per square meter per day) was up to four times the values measured during in situ studies in mid-January to February 1979. Inclusion of this early season production yields a spring-to-summer estimate of 141 to 171 grams of carbon per square meter, three to four times the values previously reported for the western Ross Sea.

Distributions of phytoplankton blooms in the southern ocean.

A regional pigment retrieval algorithm for the Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) has been tested for the Southern Ocean. The pigment concentrations estimated with this algorithm agree to within 5 percent with in situ values and are more than twice as high as those previously reported. The CZCS data also revealed an asymmetric distribution of enhanced pigments in the waters surrounding Antarctica; in contrast, most surface geophysical properties are symmetrically distributed. The asymmetry is coherent with circumpolar current patterns and the availability of silicic acid in surface waters. Intense blooms (>1 milligram of pigment per cubic meter) that occur downcurrent from continental masses result from dissolved trace elements such as iron derived from shelf sediments and glacial melt.