Weight change and risk of incident type 2 diabetes: short, medium and long-term follow-up in tehran lipid and glucose study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the high burden of obesity and Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in the Middle East/West Asia region, the effect of weight change on the development of T2DM is poorly addressed. Therefore, we aimed to assess the impact of 3-year body weight change on incident of T2DM over 3-, 6-, and 9-year periods among Iranian adults. METHODS: A total of 6930 participants (men = 2567) aged ≥ 20 years free of T2DM or cancer at baseline were included. Weight measurements were taken at baseline (2002-2005) and approximately 3 years later. Participants were categorized based on their weight change ratio into ≥ 5% loss, stable (± 5%), and ≥ 5% gain. Generalized estimating equations (GEE), adjusted with age, sex, education levels, baseline measurements of fasting plasma glucose, weight, waist circumference, triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, family history of diabetes, current smoker, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular disease were applied to estimate the Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of weight change categories for incident T2DM, considering stable weight as a reference. RESULTS: During median follow-ups of 3-, 6-, and 9-year, 295, 505, and 748 cases of T2DM occurred, respectively. Weight gain of ≥ 5%, as compared to stable weight group (± 5%), was associated with increased T2DM risk, with ORs of 1.58 (95% CI 1.16-2.14), 1.76 (1.41-2.20), and 1.70 (1.40-2.05) for the 3-, 6-, and 9-year follow-ups, respectively, in multivariable analysis; corresponding values for weight loss ≥ 5% were 0.48 (0.29-0.80), 0.57 (0.40-0.81), and 0.51 (0.38-0.68), respectively. This association persisted even after adjusting for attained weight. Subgroup analysis showed consistent associations across age, gender, and body mass index categories. CONCLUSION: Weight gain and loss of ≥ 5% were associated with increased and decreased risks of incident T2DM, respectively, regardless of attained weight. This association was consistent over various follow-up durations among the Iranian population as recommended by guidelines.

The impact of obesity on different glucose tolerance status with incident cardiovascular disease and mortality events over 15 years of follow-up: a pooled cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The effect of obesity in different glucose tolerance statuses i.e. normoglycemia (NGT), pre-diabetes, and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality has been an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. In the present study, we aimed to examine the impact of being obese, whether general or central separately, in comparison with non-obese in different glucose tolerance statuses on the above outcomes. METHODS: The study population included 18,184 participants aged 30-60 years (9927 women) from three longitudinal studies, including Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Glucose tolerance status was defined as NGT (fasting plasma glucose < 5.55 mmol/L), pre-diabetes (5.55-7.00 mmol/L), and T2DM (≥ 7 mmol/L or taking any medication for diabetes). Moreover, general and central obesity were defined based on body mass index and waist circumference (WC), respectively. Multivariable stratified Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs (95% CI)) for CVD and mortality events. RESULTS: During a 16-year follow-up, 2733 CVD events, 1101 CV mortality, and 3678 all-cause mortality events were recorded. We observed that being generally obese in comparison with non-obese increased the risk of CV and all-cause mortality in all glucose tolerance statuses; while considering CVD events, only among individuals with T2DM, the presence of general obesity was associated with marginally significant higher risk [1.19 (0.98-1.43); p-value = 0.07]. Regarding central adiposity, multivariate analysis revealed that elevated WC in NGT participants is associated with incident CVD [1.27(1.12-1.46)] and all-cause mortality [1.13(1.00-1.28)]. Moreover, central adiposity increased the risk of CV mortality in pre-diabetes individuals [1.47 (1.11-1.95)]. CONCLUSION: Findings from this pooled prospective cohort studies provide evidence that general obesity shows an unfavorable association with CV and all-cause mortality among the general population irrespective of their glucose tolerance statusThe findings imply that it's important to take into account the requirement and magnitude of weight reduction in people who are obese when offering guidance.

The association of ideal cardiovascular health metrics and incident hypertension among an urban population of Iran: a decade follow-up in Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

We aimed to determine the association between ideal cardiovascular health metrics (ICVHM) and the incidence of hypertension among Iranian adults. The study population included 5409 Iranian adults aged ≥20 years (2088 men) without hypertension (applying the 2017 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) guideline) at baseline. The ICVHM was defined according to the AHA's 2020 impact goals, excluding total cholesterol was replaced by non-HDL cholesterol (non-HDL-C). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was done to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for ICVHM both as continuous and categorical variables. During a median 8.5-year follow-up, 2972 new cases of hypertension were identified (men: 1,287). Non-HDL-C < 130 mg/dL in men [HR (95% CI): 0.75(0.65-0.86)] and fasting plasma glucose(FPG) < 100 mg/dL in women[HR (95% CI): 0.79(0.64-0.97)], and among both genders, being normal/overweigth status (compared to obese) and blood pressure <120/80 mmHg were associated with a lower risk for hypertension. Additionally, in both gender, a 1-point increase in the number of global ICVHM decreased the risk of hypertension by more than 10%, and having ≥5 vs. <2 ICVHM, were associated with a lower risk of hypertension by 30% (all p values < 0.05). Applying the JNC 7 guideline, the association between ICVHM, with incident hypertension, were generally similar. Having a higher number of ICVHM was associated with a lower risk of incident hypertension, using both 2017 ACC/AHA and JNC 7 guidelines, mostly attributable to keeping the ideal status of body mass index, non-HDL-C, and FPG.

Prevalence and metabolic determinants of abnormal alanine aminotransferase: A cross-sectional study of Iranian adults, 2018-2022.

BACKGROUND: Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is an enzyme whose activity became the principal biomarker for liver disease. In the current study, we aimed to determine the prevalence of abnormal ALT, as a surrogate of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its associated determinants using different criteria among Tehranian subjects between 2018 and 2022. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study on 5676 Tehranian individuals aged 20-70 years. The weighted prevalence of abnormal ALT was calculated using both the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in the United States (US-NHANCE; ALT ≥30 U/L for females and ≥40 U/L for males) and the American College of Gastroenterology (ACG) guideline (ALT >25 U/L for females, and >33 U/L for males) thresholds. Moreover, uni/multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to find the determinants of abnormal ALT. RESULTS: The weighted prevalence of abnormal ALT was 12.8% (7.6% females and 18% males) and 22.5% (17.7% females and 27.3% males) based on US-NHANCE and ACG criteria, respectively. Our results showed every decade increase in age decreased the risk of abnormal ALT by 32%. We also found that generally male gender, being overweight/obese, central adiposity, TG ≥6.9 mmol/L, non-HDL-C ≥3.37 mmol/L, lipid-lowering medications, pre-diabetes/T2DM were associated with abnormal ALT using different cutoff points. Moreover, among men resting tachycardia (≥90 beats per min), hypertension, and females past-smoker were also found as other determinants of abnormal ALT. CONCLUSION: High prevalence of abnormal ALT among non-elderly Iranian adults, especially among men, necessitates immediate multifaceted strategies by policymakers to prevent potential complications caused by NAFLD.

External validation of the American prediction model for incident type 2 diabetes in the Iranian population.

BACKGROUND: The primary aim of the present study was to validate the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) model for incident Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Iran. METHODS: Present study was a prospective cohort study on 1835 population aged ≥ 45 years from Tehran lipids and glucose study (TLGS).The predictors of REGARDS model based on Bayesian hierarchical techniques included age, sex, race, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose. For external validation, the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, Youden's index, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were assessed. RESULTS: During the 10-year follow-up 15.3% experienced T2DM. The model showed acceptable discrimination (AUC (95%CI): 0.79 (0.76-0.82)), and good calibration. Based on the highest Youden's index the suggested cut-point for the REGARDS probability would be ≥ 13% which yielded a sensitivity of 77.2%, specificity 66.8%, NPV 94.2%, and PPV 29.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings do support that the REGARDS model is a valid tool for incident T2DM in the Iranian population. Moreover, the probability value higher than the 13% cut-off point is stated to be significant for identifying those with incident T2DM.

The Trend of Risk for Cardiovascular Diseases During the Past Decade in Iran, Applying No-Lab and Lab-Based Prediction Models.

Background: As a surrogate for all relevant risk factors, it is preferable to show trends in the mean cardiovascular disease(CVD) risk rather than to examine each risk factor trend separately. Objectives: Using national representative data, this study aimed to determine the changes in the World Health Organization (WHO) CVD risk during the last decade considering both laboratory and non-laboratory risk scoring. Methods: We used data from five rounds of the WHO STEPwise approach to surveillance surveys (2007-2016). In all, 62,076 (31,660 women) participants aged 40-65 years were included and their absolute CVD risk were calculated. The generalized linear model was performed to assess the trend of CVD risk in men and women, and also in diabetic and non-diabetic individuals. Results: We showed significant declining trends in the mean CVD risk in the laboratory (from 10.5% to 8.8%) and non-laboratory (10.1% to 9.4%) models in men. In women, a significant reduction was observed in the laboratory-based model (from 8.4% to 7.8%). The laboratory model showed a greater decrease in men than women (P-for interaction < 0.001) and in diabetic patients (from 16.1% to 13.6%) than non-diabetic individuals (from 8.2% to 7%) (p-for interaction = 0.002). The proportion of high-risk individuals (risk ≥ 10%) decreased from 40% in 2007 to 31.5% in 2016 in men and from 29.8% to 26.1% in women based on the laboratory-model. Conclusions: During the last decade, CVD risk had a significant decrease in men and women. The reduction was more evident in men and diabetic population. However, still, one-third of our population is considered high-risk.

Association of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio to identify future prediabetes and type 2 diabetes mellitus: over one-decade follow-up in the Iranian population.

BACKGROUND: To determine the association between triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-C) for identifying subjects at risk of incident prediabetes and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: In 5064 subjects (men = 2247) aged ≥ 20 years, using Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, the associations of TG/HDL-C with incident prediabetes and T2DM were examined among normoglycemic men and women. Furthermore, the association of this lipid ratio with incident T2DM was also assessed among prediabetic subjects (n = 1414). The multivariable analyses were adjusted for age, body mass index, waist-to-height ratio, wrist circumference, systolic blood pressure, family history of T2DM, education level, history of cardiovascular diseases, and fasting plasma glucose (FPG). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.2 years, 2140 new cases of prediabetes (men = 1070) and 360 incident T2DM (men = 152) were identified among normoglycemic individuals. In the prediabetic population, 574 new cases of T2DM (men = 252) were developed. Among the whole population, compared to the first quartile (reference), higher quartiles of TG/HDL-C were significantly associated with higher risks of incident prediabetes and T2DM among normoglycemic individuals and incident T2DM in the prediabetic population (all P for trend < 0.001). The corresponding hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the fourth quartiles were 1.37(1.20-1.58), 1.92(1.34-2.75), and 1.57(1.22-2.01), respectively. The sex-stratified analyses demonstrated similar significant associations in both sexes; however, TG/HDL-C lost its association with incident T2DM among prediabetic men. Among the normoglycemic population, 1 unit increase in TG/HDL-C was significantly associated with incident prediabetes and T2DM [1.02(1.00-1.03) and 1.06(1.03-1.08), respectively]. The corresponding value for incident T2DM in prediabetic individuals was 1.01(1.00-1.03). In a subgroup population having insulin data (n = 2897), the associations between TG/HDL-C and incident prediabetes and T2DM among normoglycemic individuals generally persisted even after replacing FPG with an index of insulin resistance (IR), i.e., homeostasis model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR) in the adjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, in the normoglycemic population, the increasing value of TG/HDL-C was unfavorably associated with incident prediabetes and T2DM, especially among women. Similarly, TG/HDL-C was associated with incident T2DM in prediabetic individuals. Generally, we found that the correlation between TG/HDL-C and different states of dysglycemia is independent of HOMA-IR.

Population-based cross-sectional study of sex-specific dose-response associations between night sleep duration and hypertension in Islamic Republic of Iran.

Background: Several studies have suggested that sleep disorders have adverse effects on blood pressure. However, the findings remain controversial and only a few studies have investigated the association between sleep duration and hypertension among all age and sex subgroups. Aim: To evaluate the dose-response association between sleep duration and blood pressure in the Iranian population using the Ravansar non-communicable disease cohort study. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of 9865 participants aged 35-65 years from the 2014-2017 Ravansar non-communicable disease cohort study. Night sleep duration was classified as ≤5 hours, 6 hours, 7 hours, 8 hours, 9 hours, and ≥10 hours. The association between self-reported sleep duration and hypertension was examined using multivariable logistic regression in STATA version 14. Restricted cubic spline analysis showed the dose-response association between sleep duration and hypertension. Results: The age-adjusted prevalence of hypertension was 16.50% among men, 24.20% among women and 20.50% in the total population. Compared with reference sleep duration (7 hours) in the total population, the multivariable odds ratio [OR (95% CI)] for hypertension was 0.70 (0.55-0.88) for the group with 9 hours sleep duration and 0.90 (0.74-1.09) for the group with ≤5 hours sleep duration. Among pre-menopausal women, we observed an inverse association between 9 hours sleep duration and hypertension [0.62 (0.42-0.90)]. The age-adjusted cubic spline suggested a linear inverse association between sleep duration and prevalence of hypertension among men and the total population and a non-linear association among women. Conclusion: Longer sleep duration (from 9 hours) had a negative association with hypertension. Further studies are needed to identify the risk factors associated with sleep duration and hypertension among the general population in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Association between Wrist Circumference and Risk of Any Fracture in Adults: Findings from 15 Years of Follow-Up in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

We evaluated whether wrist circumference (WrC), as a novel anthropometric measure, is associated with incidences of any fractures. The study population included 8288 adults (45.3% men) aged ≥30 years, who were followed for incidences of any fractures from 31 January 1999 to 16 March 2016. We used Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for well-known risk factors to evaluate the association of WrC, both as continuous and categorical variables (bottom tertile as reference), with incidences of any fractures and major osteoporotic fractures (MOF). Over 15 years of follow-ups, 348 fractures occurred (men = 162). For a 1 cm increase in WrC, hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.03-1.35) for incident any fractures and 1.22 (1.01-1.49) for incident MOF. In addition to WrC, age, female sex, lower BMI, higher WC, current smoking, and usage of steroidal medications were significantly associated with the incidences of any fractures. Moreover, participants in the middle and top tertiles of WrC had a higher risk of incidence for any fractures [HR = 1.62 (1.19-2.20) and 1.70 (1.14-2.55), respectively, p-value for trend = 0.012]. We presented WrC as a strong and independent risk factor for incidences of any fractures that might be considered in the risk prediction of bone fracture in Iranian adults.

Differences in the impact of impaired glucose status on clinical outcomes in younger and older adults: Over a decade of follow-up in the Tehran lipid and glucose study.

Introduction: Studies found that the impact of dysglycemia on microvascular, macrovascular events and mortality outcomes were different between the younger vs. older population. We aimed to investigate the age-specific association of prediabetes with clinical outcomes including type 2 diabetes (T2DM), hypertension, chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and mortality. Materials and methods: A total of 5,970 Iranians (3,829 women) aged ≥30 years, without T2DM, were included. The age-specific (<60 and ≥60 years; minimum p-value for interaction = 0.001) multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was done to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the impaired glucose status including impaired fasting glucose (IFG) vs. normal fasting glucose (NFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) vs. normal glucose tolerance (NGT), and IFG&IGT vs. NFG/NGT with each outcome. Results: Among individuals aged ≥60 years, the prevalence of impaired glucose status (IFG, IGT, or both) was about 2 times higher compared to those aged <60. Age-specific association between prediabetes and incident hypertension was found for those aged <60 years; [HR (95% CI); IFG: 1.38 (1.16-1.65), IGT: 1.51 (1.26-1.81), and IFG&IGT: 1.62 (1.21-2.12)]. For CVD, in all impaired glycemic states, those aged <60 were at higher significant risk [IFG: 1.39 (1.09-1.77), IGT: 1.53 (1.19-1.97), and IFG&IGT: 1.60 (1.14-2.25)]. Stratified analyses showed similar associations for IFG and IGT with non-CV mortality 1.71 (1.04-2.80) and 2.12 (1.30-3.46), respectively, and for all-cause mortality among those aged <60 years [IFG: 1.63 (1.08-2.45) and IGT: 1.82 (1.20-2.76)]. In both age groups, all glycemic status groups were significantly associated with T2DM but not with CKD and CV mortality. Conclusions: The high prevalence of prediabetes particularly among the elderly population, limited resources, and the observed significant age differences in the impact of prediabetes states on different clinical outcomes calls for multicomponent intervention strategies by policy health makers, including lifestyle and possible pharmacological therapy, with the priority for the young Iranian population.

The association between low-density and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with incident cardiovascular disease among low-risk Iranians during 2 decades follow-up.

INTRODUCTION: To examine the associations between low-density and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and non-HDL-C, respectively) with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in low-risk subjects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From a total of 2467 non-diabetic aged 40-70 years, free of CVD with LDL-C range 1.81 ≤ LDL-C < 4.91 mmol/L with 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk < 7.5 %, the associations of LDL-C and non-HDL-C with incident CVD were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, HDL-C, triglycerides, chronic kidney disease, current smoking, hypertension, and family history of CVD. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 18 years, 559 CVD events occurred. Compared to the LDL-C < 2.59 mmol/L as reference, the categories of 2.59 ≤ LDL-C < 3.36, 3.36 ≤ LDL-C < 4.14, and ≥ 4.14 mmol/L were associated with hazard ratios (95 % confidence intervals) of 1.39(0.89-2.18), 1.72(1.11-2.68), and 2.19(1.36-3.51) for incident CVD (P for trend <0.0001), respectively. Compared to the non-HDL-C < 3.36 as reference, the categories of 3.36 ≤ non-HDL-C < 4.14, 4.14 ≤ non-HDL-C < 4.91, and ≥ 4.91 mmol/L were associated with 1.48(0.96-2.30), 1.37(0.89-2.16), and 2.15(1.36-3.39) higher risk for incident CVD (P for trend = 0.001), respectively. Among those with ASCVD score <5 % (n = 2070), even the 2.59 ≤ LDL-C < 3.36 mmol/L increased the risk for CVD [1.73(1.01-2.97)]. Results for non-HDL-C categories remained unchanged compared to those with ASCVD risk < 7.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Among Iranian individuals with ASCVD risk as little as < 5 %, LDL-C ≥ 2.59 mmol/L and non-HDL-C ≥ 3.36 mmol/L, independent of traditional risk factors, were associated with a significantly higher risk of incident CVD, individuals that might potentially benefit from pharmacological therapy.

Prevalence of short and long sleep duration: Ravansar NonCommunicable Disease (RaNCD) cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of short and long sleep duration varies in different countries and changes over time. There are limited studies on Iranians' sleep duration, and we aimed to evaluate the prevalence of short and long sleep duration and associated factors among people living in Kermanshah, Iran. METHODS: This population-based cross-sectional study was conducted between November 2014 and February 2017. Data was collected from 10,025 adults aged 35 to 65 years using census sampling, and we evaluated the short and long sleep duration (≤ 6 and ≥ 9 h, respectively) and its relation with the socio-demographic factors and health-related status of the participants. RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 48.1 years (standard deviation = 8.2), and 47.4% of participants were male. Of our participants, 11.6% had short, and 21.9% had long sleep duration. Age ≥ 50 years, female gender, being single, mobile use for longer than 8 h per day, working in night shifts, moderate and good levels of physical activity, BMI ≥ 30, past smoking, and alcohol use were associated with short sleep duration (P < 0.05). Female gender and living in rural areas were associated with long sleep duration (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In the Ravansar population, short and long sleep duration are prevalent, with long sleep duration having higher prevalence. People at risk, such as night shift workers, as well as modifiable factors, such as mobile phone use, can be targeted with interventions to improve sleep hygiene.

Association of ideal cardiovascular health metrics and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus among an urban population of Iran: One decade follow up in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the association between ideal cardiovascular health metrics (ICVHM) and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus among Iranian men and women. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study population included 7,488 Iranian adults aged ≥20 years (4,236 women) free from diabetes at baseline. The ICVHM was defined according to the American Heart Association's 2020 impact goals. The multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for ICVHM both as continuous and categorical variables. RESULTS: Over the median of 9.1 years of follow-up, we identified 922 new cases of type 2 diabetes mellitus (526 women). Body mass index <30 kg/m2 , untreated systolic/diastolic blood pressure <120/80 mmHg in both sexes, and physical activity ≥1,500 MET min/week (only among men) were significantly associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Each additional unit in the ICVHM was associated with a 21 and 15% lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in men and women, respectively (P-values <0.05). Compared with participants having poor cardiovascular health, the HR for type 2 diabetes mellitus risk was 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.85) and 0.35 (95% CI 0.21-0.59) for men with intermediate and ideal CVHM, respectively. The corresponding values for women were 0.79 (95% CI 0.65-0.97) and 0.30 (95% CI 0.15-0.60), respectively. In a subpopulation with nutritional data (n = 2,236), ideal and intermediate nutritional status was associated with 83 and 77% lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus only among women (P-values <0.05). CONCLUSION: We found a strong inverse association between having higher global ICVHM with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus; which is mainly attributable to normal blood pressure, normal body weight, and intensive physical activity (only for men).

xsGastrointestinal symptoms are associated with a lower risk of hospitalization and mortality and Outcomes in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to find the association between gastrointestinal (GI) and respiratory symptoms with mortality and hospitalization among COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We analyzed the registered data of COVID-19 patients from February 20, 2020, to March 10, 2021. Depending on the patients' disease symptoms, four categories were defined: patients with only GI symptoms, patients with only respiratory symptoms, patients with both symptoms, and patients with other symptoms. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association of groups with outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 42,964 patients from 23 hospitals were included, of which 26.5% patients had at least one or more GI symptoms. Of total patients, 51.58% patients were hospitalized among which 22.8% had at least one or more GI symptoms. GI symptoms significantly decreased the odds of mortality (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56-0.92), but respiratory symptoms increased the odds for mortality (1.36: 1.24-1.50), compared with patients with other symptoms. Moreover, the odds ratio of patients who had both respiratory and GI symptoms increased (1.52: 1.31-1.78) compared with patients with other symptoms. The same results were observed for hospitalization as the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that the presence of GI symptoms in COVID-19 at the time of admission was associated with a lower odds of hospitalization and mortality; however, this association had higher odds for respiratory symptoms.

Incidence and risk factors of severe non-proliferative/proliferative diabetic retinopathy: More than a decade follow up in the Tehran Lipids and Glucose Study.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To examine the incidence rate of severe non-proliferative and proliferative diabetic retinopathy (severe-NPDR/PDR) and determine its potential risk factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study consisted of 1,169 participants (675 women) with type 2 diabetes mellitus, aged ≥20 years. A trained interviewer collected information about the history of pan-retinal photocoagulation as a result of diabetic retinopathy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied. RESULTS: We found 187 cases (126 women) of severe-NPDR/PDR during a median follow-up period of 12.7 years; the corresponding incidence rate was 13.6 per 1,000 person-years. Being overweight (hazard ratio [HR], 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60, 0.39-0.92) and obese (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.27-0.83) were associated with lower risk, whereas being smoker (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.12-2.74), having fasting plasma glucose levels 7.22-10.0 mmol/L (HR 2.81, 95% CI 1.70-4.62), fasting plasma glucose ≥10 mmol/L (HR 5.87, 95% CI 3.67-9.41), taking glucose-lowering medications (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.87-3.56), prehypertension status (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.05-2.58) and newly diagnosed hypertension (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.06-3.65) increased the risk of severe-NPDR/PDR. Among newly diagnosed diabetes patients, being male was associated with a 59% lower risk of severe-NPDR/PDR (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.21-0.79). Furthermore, patients who had an intermediate level of education (6-12 years) had a higher risk of developing PDR (HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.05-3.30) compared with those who had <6 years of education. CONCLUSIONS: Among Iranians with type 2 diabetes mellitus, 1.36% developed severe-NPDR/PDR annually. Normal bodyweight, being a smoker, out of target fasting plasma glucose level, prehypertension and newly diagnosed hypertension status were independent risk factors of severe-NPDR/PDR. Regarding the sight-threatening entity of advanced diabetic retinopathy, the multicomponent strategy to control diabetes, abstinence of smoking and tight control of blood pressure should be considered.

Live birth/parity number and the risk of incident hypertension among parous women during over 13 years of follow-up.

The effect of live birth/parity number on incident hypertension was investigated among Iranian parous women aged 30-70 years. The study population included 2188 normotensive women who were enrolled in 1999-2001. They were followed for incident hypertension (based on JNC 7 report) by 3-year intervals up to April 2018. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for a wide set of potential hypertension risk factors, reproductive factors, and pregnancy complications, were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the number of parity/live birth(s) for incident hypertension. Additionally, as a sensitivity analysis, age-scale Cox regression was also done. During a median follow-up of 13.5 years, 935 incident hypertension have occurred. Compared to those with two live births, the participants who had 3 and ≥4 live births were at higher risk of hypertension development by the HRs of 1.25 [95% CI: 1.02-1.55] and 1.39 [1.12-1.72], respectively, in the full-adjusted model. Moreover, each additional live birth increased the risk of hypertension by a HR of 1.06 [95%CI: 1.02-1.11]. Results of parity number were also similar. Considering age as time scale also did not change the results generally. The authors found a significant interaction between live birth/parity number and age groups; the adverse effect of higher live birth/parity numbers on hypertension development was mainly found among those aged < 50 years. To sum up, compared to the live birth/parity number of two, Iranian women with ≥3 live birth/parity had a higher risk of incident hypertension; the issue was more prominent among younger mothers.

The association of parity/live birth number with incident type 2 diabetes among women: over 15 years of follow-up in The Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

BACKGROUND: Childbearing may increase the future risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in mothers. However, the issue is not clear completely and not investigated in the Middle East, a region with a high burden of T2DM. In the current study, we examined the association of parity/live birth number with incident T2DM among Iranian women. METHODS: The study population included 2552 women aged 30-65 years recruited in 1999-2001 and were followed for incident T2DM by 3-year intervals. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the parity/live birth number for incident T2DM. Parity number was defined as the number of live childbirth (number of live birth) plus the number of stillbirth (defined as birth of an infant that died after the 20th week of pregnancy in the uterus). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 15.4 years, 557 incident T2DM cases have occurred. After adjustment for potential T2DM risk factors and reproductive factors, each additional parity caused a 9% higher risk for incident T2DM. Moreover, compared to women with one parity, those with 3 and ≥ 4 parity had HRs of 1.73 [95% CI: 1.06-2.83] and 2.23 [1.36-3.65], respectively. After further adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, although the HRs were attenuated prominently, parity ≥ 4 was associated with significantly higher risk (HR: 1.72 [1.05-2.83]); even after further adjustment for triglycerides (TG)/ high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), the risk remained marginally significant (HR: 1.64 [1.00-2.70; P value: 0.051]). For the number of live birth, the results were also similar. Moreover, in a sensitivity analysis, when we considered BMI change during follow-up as another covariate, generally, the effect sizes did not change; the trend of HRs across categories of parity number remained marginally significant (P value: 0.064). CONCLUSIONS: During a long-term follow-up, after adjustment for potential T2DM risk factors, reproductive factors, obesity indices, and TG/HDL-C (insulin resistance surrogate), we demonstrated that higher parity/live birth numbers could be associated with increased risk of T2DM development among Iranian women. Moreover, even after further adjustment for BMI change, the suggestive higher risk was still found.

Prediction Models for Type 2 Diabetes Risk in the General Population: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to provide an overview of prediction models of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (U-T2DM) or the incident T2DM (I-T2DM) using the transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) checklist and the prediction model risk of the bias assessment tool (PROBAST). DATA SOURCES: Both PUBMED and EMBASE databases were searched to guarantee adequate and efficient coverage. STUDY SELECTION: Articles published between December 2011 and October 2019 were considered. DATA EXTRACTION: For each article, information on model development requirements, discrimination measures, calibration, overall performance, clinical usefulness, overfitting, and risk of bias (ROB) was reported. RESULTS: The median (interquartile range; IQR) number of the 46 study populations for model development was 5711 (1971 - 27426) and 2457 (2060 - 6995) individuals for I-T2DM and U-T2DM, respectively. The most common reported predictors were age and body mass index, and only the Qrisk-2017 study included social factors (e.g., Townsend score). Univariable analysis was reported in 46% of the studies, and the variable selection procedure was not clear in 17.4% of them. Moreover, internal and external validation was reported in 43% the studies, while over 63% of them reported calibration. The median (IQR) of AUC for I-T2DM models was 0.78 (0.74 - 0.82); the corresponding value for studies derived before October 2011 was 0.80 (0.77 - 0.83). The highest discrimination index was reported for Qrisk-2017 with C-statistics of 0.89 for women and 0.87 for men. Low ROB for I-T2DM and U-T2DM was assessed at 18% and 41%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among prediction models, an intermediate to poor quality was reassessed in several aspects of model development and validation. Generally, despite its new risk factors or new methodological aspects, the newly developed model did not increase our capability in screening/predicting T2DM, mainly in the analysis part. It was due to the lack of external validation of the prediction models.

Sudden cardiac death among Iranian population: a two decades follow-up of Tehran lipid and glucose study.

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is described as death within one hour, if observed, from the onset of symptoms, and within 24 h of being alive and well if not observe. Study population includes 3705 men and 4446 women, aged ≥ 30 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the risk factors associated with SCD. After a median follow-up of 17.9 years, 244 SCD (165 in males) occurred. The age-standardized incidence rate (95% confidence intervals (CI)) of SCD was 2.3 (2.1-2.7) per 1000 person-year. Current smoking [Hazard ratio (HR): 2.43, 95% CI: 1.73-3.42], high waist circumference [1.49: 1.04-2.12], hypertension [1.39: 1.05-1.84], type 2 diabetes mellitus [2.78: 2.09-3.69], pulse rate ≥ 90 beats per/minute [1.72: 1.22-2.42] and prevalent cardiovascular disease [1.75: 1.26-2.45] were significant risk factors. The corresponding population attributed fractions (PAF) were 14.30, 16.58, 14.03, 19.60, 7.62, and 8.30, respectively. Being overweight [0.58: 0.40-0.83] and obese [0.61: 0.38-0.98] decreased the risk of SCD. After excluding known diabetes cases from our data analysis, the newly diagnosed diabetes still showed an HR of 2.0 (1.32-3.00) with a PAF of 7.15% in the full adjustment model. To deal with sudden death as a catastrophic outcome, multi-component strategies by policy health makers are suggested.