The determinants of COVID-19 case reporting across Africa.

Background: According to study on the under-estimation of COVID-19 cases in African countries, the average daily case reporting rate was only 5.37% in the initial phase of the outbreak when there was little or no control measures. In this work, we aimed to identify the determinants of the case reporting and classify the African countries using the case reporting rates and the significant determinants. Methods: We used the COVID-19 daily case reporting rate estimated in the previous paper for 54 African countries as the response variable and 34 variables from demographics, socioeconomic, religion, education, and public health categories as the predictors. We adopted a generalized additive model with cubic spline for continuous predictors and linear relationship for categorical predictors to identify the significant covariates. In addition, we performed Hierarchical Clustering on Principal Components (HCPC) analysis on the reporting rates and significant continuous covariates of all countries. Results: 21 covariates were identified as significantly associated with COVID-19 case detection: total population, urban population, median age, life expectancy, GDP, democracy index, corruption, voice accountability, social media, internet filtering, air transport, human development index, literacy, Islam population, number of physicians, number of nurses, global health security, malaria incidence, diabetes incidence, lower respiratory and cardiovascular diseases prevalence. HCPC resulted in three major clusters for the 54 African countries: northern, southern and central essentially, with the northern having the best early case detection, followed by the southern and the central. Conclusion: Overall, northern and southern Africa had better early COVID-19 case identification compared to the central. There are a number of demographics, socioeconomic, public health factors that exhibited significant association with the early case detection.

Impact assessment of self-medication on COVID-19 prevalence in Gauteng, South Africa, using an age-structured disease transmission modelling framework.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of self-medication on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 across different age groups, examine the interplay of vaccination and self-medication in disease spread, and identify the age group most prone to self-medication. METHODS: We developed an age-structured compartmentalized epidemiological model to track the early dynamics of COVID-19. Age-structured data from the Government of Gauteng, encompassing the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases, were used to calibrate the model through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework. Subsequently, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted on the model parameters. RESULTS: We found that self-medication is predominant among the age group 15-64 (74.52%), followed by the age group 0-14 (34.02%), and then the age group 65+ (11.41%). The mean values of the basic reproduction number, the size of the first epidemic peak (the highest magnitude of the disease), and the time of the first epidemic peak (when the first highest magnitude occurs) are 4.16499, 241,715 cases, and 190.376 days, respectively. Moreover, we observed that self-medication among individuals aged 15-64 results in the highest spreading rate of COVID-19 at the onset of the outbreak and has the greatest impact on the first epidemic peak and its timing. CONCLUSION: Studies aiming to understand the dynamics of diseases in areas prone to self-medication should account for this practice. There is a need for a campaign against COVID-19-related self-medication, specifically targeting the active population (ages 15-64).

A Survey of the Use of Modeling, Simulation, Visualization, and Mapping in Public Health Emergency Operations Centers during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly changed life and work patterns and reshaped the healthcare industry and public health strategies. It posed considerable challenges to public health emergency operations centers (PHEOCs). In this period, digital technologies such as modeling, simulation, visualization, and mapping (MSVM) emerged as vital tools in these centers. Despite their perceived importance, the potential and adaptation of digital tools in PHEOCs remain underexplored. This study investigated the application of MSVM in the PHEOCs during the pandemic in Canada using a questionnaire survey. The results show that digital tools, particularly visualization and mapping, are frequently used in PHEOCs. However, critical gaps, including data management issues, technical and capacity issues, and limitations in the policy-making sphere, still hinder the effective use of these tools. Key areas identified in this study for future investigation include collaboration, interoperability, and various supports for information sharing and capacity building.

Complex adaptive systems-based framework for modeling the health impacts of climate change.

Introduction: Climate change is a global phenomenon with far-reaching consequences, and its impact on human health is a growing concern. The intricate interplay of various factors makes it challenging to accurately predict and understand the implications of climate change on human well-being. Conventional methodologies have limitations in comprehensively addressing the complexity and nonlinearity inherent in the relationships between climate change and health outcomes. Objectives: The primary objective of this paper is to develop a robust theoretical framework that can effectively analyze and interpret the intricate web of variables influencing the human health impacts of climate change. By doing so, we aim to overcome the limitations of conventional approaches and provide a more nuanced understanding of the complex relationships involved. Furthermore, we seek to explore practical applications of this theoretical framework to enhance our ability to predict, mitigate, and adapt to the diverse health challenges posed by a changing climate. Methods: Addressing the challenges outlined in the objectives, this study introduces the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework, acknowledging its significance in capturing the nuanced dynamics of health effects linked to climate change. The research utilizes a blend of field observations, expert interviews, key informant interviews, and an extensive literature review to shape the development of the CAS framework. Results and discussion: The proposed CAS framework categorizes findings into six key sub-systems: ecological services, extreme weather, infectious diseases, food security, disaster risk management, and clinical public health. The study employs agent-based modeling, using causal loop diagrams (CLDs) tailored for each CAS sub-system. A set of identified variables is incorporated into predictive modeling to enhance the understanding of health outcomes within the CAS framework. Through a combination of theoretical development and practical application, this paper aspires to contribute valuable insights to the interdisciplinary field of climate change and health. Integrating agent-based modeling and CLDs enhances the predictive capabilities required for effective health outcome analysis in the context of climate change. Conclusion: This paper serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, researchers, and public health professionals by employing a CAS framework to understand and assess the complex network of health impacts associated with climate change. It offers insights into effective strategies for safeguarding human health amidst current and future climate challenges.

Modelling disease mitigation at mass gatherings: A case study of COVID-19 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

The 2022 FIFA World Cup was the first major multi-continental sporting Mass Gathering Event (MGE) of the post COVID-19 era to allow foreign spectators. Such large-scale MGEs can potentially lead to outbreaks of infectious disease and contribute to the global dissemination of such pathogens. Here we adapt previous work and create a generalisable model framework for assessing the use of disease control strategies at such events, in terms of reducing infections and hospitalisations. This framework utilises a combination of meta-populations based on clusters of people and their vaccination status, Ordinary Differential Equation integration between fixed time events, and Latin Hypercube sampling. We use the FIFA 2022 World Cup as a case study for this framework (modelling each match as independent 7 day MGEs). Pre-travel screenings of visitors were found to have little effect in reducing COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations. With pre-match screenings of spectators and match staff being more effective. Rapid Antigen (RA) screenings 0.5 days before match day performed similarly to RT-PCR screenings 1.5 days before match day. Combinations of pre-travel and pre-match testing led to improvements. However, a policy of ensuring that all visitors had a COVID-19 vaccination (second or booster dose) within a few months before departure proved to be much more efficacious. The State of Qatar abandoned all COVID-19 related travel testing and vaccination requirements over the period of the World Cup. Our work suggests that the State of Qatar may have been correct in abandoning the pre-travel testing of visitors. However, there was a spike in COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations within Qatar over the World Cup. Given our findings and the spike in cases, we suggest a policy requiring visitors to have had a recent COVID-19 vaccination should have been in place to reduce cases and hospitalisations.

Twitter-based gender recognition using transformers.

Social media contains useful information about people and society that could help advance research in many different areas of health (e.g. by applying opinion mining, emotion/sentiment analysis and statistical analysis) such as mental health, health surveillance, socio-economic inequality and gender vulnerability. User demographics provide rich information that could help study the subject further. However, user demographics such as gender are considered private and are not freely available. In this study, we propose a model based on transformers to predict the user's gender from their images and tweets. The image-based classification model is trained in two different methods: using the profile image of the user and using various image contents posted by the user on Twitter. For the first method a Twitter gender recognition dataset, publicly available on Kaggle and for the second method the PAN-18 dataset is used. Several transformer models, i.e. vision transformers (ViT), LeViT and Swin Transformer are fine-tuned for both of the image datasets and then compared. Next, different transformer models, namely, bidirectional encoders representations from transformers (BERT), RoBERTa and ELECTRA are fine-tuned to recognize the user's gender by their tweets. This is highly beneficial, because not all users provide an image that indicates their gender. The gender of such users could be detected from their tweets. The significance of the image and text classification models were evaluated using the Mann-Whitney U test. Finally, the combination model improved the accuracy of image and text classification models by 11.73 and 5.26% for the Kaggle dataset and by 8.55 and 9.8% for the PAN-18 dataset, respectively. This shows that the image and text classification models are capable of complementing each other by providing additional information to one another. Our overall multimodal method has an accuracy of 88.11% for the Kaggle and 89.24% for the PAN-18 dataset and outperforms state-of-the-art models. Our work benefits research that critically require user demographic information such as gender to further analyze and study social media content for health-related issues.

An Agent-Based Modeling and Virtual Reality Application Using Distributed Simulation: Case of a COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit.

Hospitals and other healthcare settings use various simulation methods to improve their operations, management, and training. The COVID-19 pandemic, with the resulting necessity for rapid and remote assessment, has highlighted the critical role of modeling and simulation in healthcare, particularly distributed simulation (DS). DS enables integration of heterogeneous simulations to further increase the usability and effectiveness of individual simulations. This article presents a DS system that integrates two different simulations developed for a hospital intensive care unit (ICU) ward dedicated to COVID-19 patients. AnyLogic has been used to develop a simulation model of the ICU ward using agent-based and discrete event modeling methods. This simulation depicts and measures physical contacts between healthcare providers and patients. The Unity platform has been utilized to develop a virtual reality simulation of the ICU environment and operations. The high-level architecture, an IEEE standard for DS, has been used to build a cloud-based DS system by integrating and synchronizing the two simulation platforms. While enhancing the capabilities of both simulations, the DS system can be used for training purposes and assessment of different managerial and operational decisions to minimize contacts and disease transmission in the ICU ward by enabling data exchange between the two simulations.

Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa.

Country reported case counts suggested a slow spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. Owing to inadequate public awareness, unestablished monitoring practices, limited testing and stigmas, there might exist extensive under-ascertainment of the true number of cases, especially at the beginning of the novel epidemic. We developed a compartmentalized epidemiological model to track the early epidemics in 54 African countries. Data on the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases were used to fit the model for the time period with no or little massive national interventions yet in each country. We estimated that the mean basic reproduction number is 2.02 (s.d. 0.7), with a range between 1.12 (Zambia) and 3.64 (Nigeria). The mean overall report rate was estimated to be 5.37% (s.d. 5.71%), with the highest 30.41% in Libya and the lowest 0.02% in São Tomé and Príncipe. An average of 5.46% (s.d. 6.4%) of all infected cases were severe cases and 66.74% (s.d. 17.28%) were asymptomatic ones. The estimated low reporting rates in Africa suggested a clear need for improved reporting and surveillance systems in these countries.

Leveraging an epidemic-economic mathematical model to assess human responses to COVID-19 policies and disease progression.

It is imperative that resources are channelled towards programs that are efficient and cost effective in combating the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study proposed and analyzed control strategies for that purpose. We developed a mathematical disease model within an optimal control framework that allows us to investigate the best approach for curbing COVID-19 epidemic. We address the following research question: what is the role of community compliance as a measure for COVID-19 control? Analyzing the impact of community compliance of recommended guidelines by health authorities-examples, social distancing, face mask use, and sanitizing-coupled with efforts by health authorities in areas of vaccine provision and effective quarantine-showed that the best intervention in addition to implementing vaccination programs and effective quarantine measures, is the active incorporation of individuals' collective behaviours, and that resources should also be directed towards community campaigns on the importance of face mask use, social distancing, and frequent sanitizing, and any other collective activities. We also demonstrated that collective behavioral response of individuals influences the disease dynamics; implying that recommended health policy should be contextualized.

Mpox Panic, Infodemic, and Stigmatization of the Two-Spirit, Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer or Questioning, Intersex, Asexual Community: Geospatial Analysis, Topic Modeling, and Sentiment Analysis of a Large, Multilingual Social Media Database.

BACKGROUND: The global Mpox (formerly, Monkeypox) outbreak is disproportionately affecting the gay and bisexual men having sex with men community. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to use social media to study country-level variations in topics and sentiments toward Mpox and Two-Spirit, Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer or Questioning, Intersex, Asexual (2SLGBTQIAP+)-related topics. Previous infectious outbreaks have shown that stigma intensifies an outbreak. This work helps health officials control fear and stop discrimination. METHODS: In total, 125,424 Twitter and Facebook posts related to Mpox and the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community were extracted from May 1 to December 25, 2022, using Twitter application programming interface academic accounts and Facebook-scraper tools. The tweets' main topics were discovered using Latent Dirichlet Allocation in the sklearn library. The pysentimiento package was used to find the sentiments of English and Spanish posts, and the CamemBERT package was used to recognize the sentiments of French posts. The tweets' and Facebook posts' languages were understood using the Twitter application programming interface platform and pycld3 library, respectively. Using ArcGis Online, the hot spots of the geotagged tweets were identified. Mann-Whitney U, ANOVA, and Dunn tests were used to compare the sentiment polarity of different topics and countries. RESULTS: The number of Mpox posts and the number of posts with Mpox and 2SLGBTQIAP+ keywords were 85% correlated (P<.001). Interestingly, the number of posts with Mpox and 2SLGBTQIAP+ keywords had a higher correlation with the number of Mpox cases (correlation=0.36, P<.001) than the number of posts on Mpox (correlation=0.24, P<.001). Of the 10 topics, 8 were aimed at stigmatizing the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community, 3 of which had a significantly lower sentiment score than other topics (ANOVA P<.001). The Mann-Whitney U test shows that negative sentiments have a lower intensity than neutral and positive sentiments (P<.001) and neutral sentiments have a lower intensity than positive sentiments (P<.001). In addition, English sentiments have a higher negative and lower neutral and positive intensities than Spanish and French sentiments (P<.001), and Spanish sentiments have a higher negative and lower positive intensities than French sentiments (P<.001). The hot spots of the tweets with Mpox and 2SLGBTQIAP+ keywords were recognized as the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Spain, Portugal, India, Ireland, and Italy. Canada was identified as having more tweets with negative polarity and a lower sentiment score (P<.04). CONCLUSIONS: The 2SLGBTQIAP+ community is being widely stigmatized for spreading the Mpox virus on social media. This turns the community into a highly vulnerable population, widens the disparities, increases discrimination, and accelerates the spread of the virus. By identifying the hot spots and key topics of the related tweets, this work helps decision makers and health officials inform more targeted policies.

Mortality Risk Related to Heatwaves in Dezful City, Southwest of Iran.

Background: We aimed to evaluate the impact of heatwaves on daily deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes in the city of Dezful in Iran from 2013 to 2019. Method: We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality and defined 2 types of heatwaves by combining daily temperature ⩾90th in each month of the study period or since 30 years with duration ⩾2 and 3 days. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to study the association between each type of heatwave definition, and deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes with lags up to 13 days. Results: There was no discernible correlation in this area, despite the fact that heatwaves raised the risk of death from cardiovascular causes and lowered the risk from respiratory causes. On the other hand, the risk of total non-accidental mortality on days with the heatwaves is significantly higher than normal days. In main effects, the heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, Cumulative Excess Risk (CER) in lag0-2 was 10.4 and in second heatwave definition, CER values in lag0, 0-2, and 0-6 were 12.4, 29.2, and 38.8 respectively). Also, in added effects, heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, CER in lag0 and 0-2 were 1.79 and 4.11 and in the second heatwave definition, CER values in lag0, 0-2, and 0-6 were 7.76, 18.35 and 24.87 respectively). In addition, heatwaves appeared to contribute to a cumulative excess risk of non-accidental death among the male group as well as the older adults. Conclusion: However, the results showed that heatwaves could have detrimental effects on health, even in populations accustomed to the extreme heat. Therefore, early warning systems which monitor heatwaves should provide the necessary warnings to the population, especially the most vulnerable groups.

Big data- and artificial intelligence-based hot-spot analysis of COVID-19: Gauteng, South Africa, as a case study.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has developed into a pandemic. Data-driven techniques can be used to inform and guide public health decision- and policy-makers. In generalizing the spread of a virus over a large area, such as a province, it must be assumed that the transmission occurs as a stochastic process. It is therefore very difficult for policy and decision makers to understand and visualize the location specific dynamics of the virus on a more granular level. A primary concern is exposing local virus hot-spots, in order to inform and implement non-pharmaceutical interventions. A hot-spot is defined as an area experiencing exponential growth relative to the generalised growth of the pandemic. This paper uses the first and second waves of the COVID-19 epidemic in Gauteng Province, South Africa, as a case study. The study aims provide a data-driven methodology and comprehensive case study to expose location specific virus dynamics within a given area. The methodology uses an unsupervised Gaussian Mixture model to cluster cases at a desired granularity. This is combined with an epidemiological analysis to quantify each cluster's severity, progression and whether it can be defined as a hot-spot.

Nowcasting unemployment rate during the COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter data: The case of South Africa.

The global economy has been hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many countries are experiencing a severe and destructive recession. A significant number of firms and businesses have gone bankrupt or been scaled down, and many individuals have lost their jobs. The main goal of this study is to support policy- and decision-makers with additional and real-time information about the labor market flow using Twitter data. We leverage the data to trace and nowcast the unemployment rate of South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we create a dataset of unemployment-related tweets using certain keywords. Principal Component Regression (PCR) is then applied to nowcast the unemployment rate using the gathered tweets and their sentiment scores. Numerical results indicate that the volume of the tweets has a positive correlation, and the sentiments of the tweets have a negative correlation with the unemployment rate during and before the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the now-casted unemployment rate using PCR has an outstanding evaluation result with a low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Symmetric MAPE (SMAPE) of 0.921, 0.018, 0.018, respectively and a high R2-score of 0.929.

Planetary sleep medicine: Studying sleep at the individual, population, and planetary level.

Circadian rhythms are a series of endogenous autonomous oscillators that are generated by the molecular circadian clock which coordinates and synchronizes internal time with the external environment in a 24-h daily cycle (that can also be shorter or longer than 24 h). Besides daily rhythms, there exist as well other biological rhythms that have different time scales, including seasonal and annual rhythms. Circadian and other biological rhythms deeply permeate human life, at any level, spanning from the molecular, subcellular, cellular, tissue, and organismal level to environmental exposures, and behavioral lifestyles. Humans are immersed in what has been called the "circadian landscape," with circadian rhythms being highly pervasive and ubiquitous, and affecting every ecosystem on the planet, from plants to insects, fishes, birds, mammals, and other animals. Anthropogenic behaviors have been producing a cascading and compounding series of effects, including detrimental impacts on human health. However, the effects of climate change on sleep have been relatively overlooked. In the present narrative review paper, we wanted to offer a way to re-read/re-think sleep medicine from a planetary health perspective. Climate change, through a complex series of either direct or indirect mechanisms, including (i) pollution- and poor air quality-induced oxygen saturation variability/hypoxia, (ii) changes in light conditions and increases in the nighttime, (iii) fluctuating temperatures, warmer values, and heat due to extreme weather, and (iv) psychological distress imposed by disasters (like floods, wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, and infectious outbreaks by emerging and reemerging pathogens) may contribute to inducing mismatches between internal time and external environment, and disrupting sleep, causing poor sleep quantity and quality and sleep disorders, such as insomnia, and sleep-related breathing issues, among others. Climate change will generate relevant costs and impact more vulnerable populations in underserved areas, thus widening already existing global geographic, age-, sex-, and gender-related inequalities.

Public sentiments toward COVID-19 vaccines in South African cities: An analysis of Twitter posts.

Amidst the COVID-19 vaccination, Twitter is one of the most popular platforms for discussions about the COVID-19 vaccination. These types of discussions most times lead to a compromise of public confidence toward the vaccine. The text-based data generated by these discussions are used by researchers to extract topics and perform sentiment analysis at the provincial, country, or continent level without considering the local communities. The aim of this study is to use clustered geo-tagged Twitter posts to inform city-level variations in sentiments toward COVID-19 vaccine-related topics in the three largest South African cities (Cape Town, Durban, and Johannesburg). VADER, an NLP pre-trained model was used to label the Twitter posts according to their sentiments with their associated intensity scores. The outputs were validated using NB (0.68), LR (0.75), SVMs (0.70), DT (0.62), and KNN (0.56) machine learning classification algorithms. The number of new COVID-19 cases significantly positively correlated with the number of Tweets in South Africa (Corr = 0.462, P < 0.001). Out of the 10 topics identified from the tweets using the LDA model, two were about the COVID-19 vaccines: uptake and supply, respectively. The intensity of the sentiment score for the two topics was associated with the total number of vaccines administered in South Africa (P < 0.001). Discussions regarding the two topics showed higher intensity scores for the neutral sentiment class (P = 0.015) than for other sentiment classes. Additionally, the intensity of the discussions on the two topics was associated with the total number of vaccines administered, new cases, deaths, and recoveries across the three cities (P < 0.001). The sentiment score for the most discussed topic, vaccine uptake, differed across the three cities, with (P = 0.003), (P = 0.002), and (P < 0.001) for positive, negative, and neutral sentiments classes, respectively. The outcome of this research showed that clustered geo-tagged Twitter posts can be used to better analyse the dynamics in sentiments toward community-based infectious diseases-related discussions, such as COVID-19, Malaria, or Monkeypox. This can provide additional city-level information to health policy in planning and decision-making regarding vaccine hesitancy for future outbreaks.

Estimating social contacts in mass gatherings for disease outbreak prevention and management: case of Hajj pilgrimage.

BACKGROUND: Most mass gathering events have been suspended due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, with vaccination rollout, whether and how to organize some of these mass gathering events arises as part of the pandemic recovery discussions, and this calls for decision support tools. The Hajj, one of the world's largest religious gatherings, was substantively scaled down in 2020 and 2021 and it is still unclear how it will take place in 2022 and subsequent years. Simulating disease transmission dynamics during the Hajj season under different conditions can provide some insights for better decision-making. Most disease risk assessment models require data on the number and nature of possible close contacts between individuals. METHODS: We sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram. RESULTS: The simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site. CONCLUSIONS: This study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events.

A cross-country analysis of macroeconomic responses to COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter sentiments.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on the global economy. In this paper, we use the Phillips curve to compare and analyze the macroeconomics of three different countries with distinct income levels, namely, lower-middle (Nigeria), upper-middle (South Africa), and high (Canada) income. We aim to (1) find macroeconomic changes in the three countries during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic time, (2) compare the countries in terms of response to the COVID-19 economic crisis, and (3) compare their expected economic reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic in the near future. An advantage to our work is that we analyze macroeconomics on a monthly basis to capture the shocks and rapid changes caused by on and off rounds of lockdowns. We use the volume and social sentiments of the Twitter data to approximate the macroeconomic statistics. We apply four different machine learning algorithms to estimate the unemployment rate of South Africa and Nigeria on monthly basis. The results show that at the beginning of the pandemic the unemployment rate increased for all the three countries. However, Canada was able to control and reduce the unemployment rate during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, in line with the Phillips curve short-run, the inflation rate of Canada increased to a level that has never occurred in more than fifteen years. Nigeria and South Africa have not been able to control the unemployment rate and did not return to the pre-COVID-19 level. Yet, the inflation rate has increased in both countries. The inflation rate is still comparable to the pre-COVID-19 level in South Africa, but based on the Phillips curve short-run, it will increase further, if the unemployment rate decreases. Unfortunately, Nigeria is experiencing a horrible stagflation and a wild increase in both unemployment and inflation rates. This shows how vulnerable lower-middle-income countries could be to lockdowns and economic restrictions. In the near future, the main concern for all the countries is the high inflation rate. This work can potentially lead to more targeted and publicly acceptable policies based on social media content.

Simulating a Hockey Hub COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Facility.

Mass vaccination is proving to be the most effective method of disease control, and several methods have been developed for the operation of mass vaccination clinics to administer vaccines safely and quickly. One such method is known as the hockey hub model, a relatively new method that involves isolating vaccine recipients in individual cubicles for the entire duration of the vaccination process. Healthcare staff move between the cubicles and administer vaccines. This allows for faster vaccine delivery and less recipient contact. In this paper we present a simulation tool which has been created to model the operation of a hockey hub clinic. This tool was developed using AnyLogic and simulates the process of individuals moving through a hockey hub vaccination clinic. To demonstrate this model, we simulate six scenarios comprising three different arrival rates with and without physical distancing. Findings demonstrate that the hockey hub method of vaccination clinic can function at a large capacity with minimal impact on wait times.

Modeling COVID-19 Outbreaks in Long-Term Care Facilities Using an Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach.

The elderly, especially those individuals with pre-existing health problems, have been disproportionally at a higher risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Residents of long-term care facilities have been gravely affected by the pandemic and resident death numbers have been far above those of the general population. To better understand how infectious diseases such as COVID-19 can spread through long-term care facilities, we developed an agent-based simulation tool that uses a contact matrix adapted from previous infection control research in these types of facilities. This matrix accounts for the average distinct daily contacts between seven different agent types that represent the roles of individuals in long-term care facilities. The simulation results were compared to actual COVID-19 outbreaks in some of the long-term care facilities in Ontario, Canada. Our analysis shows that this simulation tool is capable of predicting the number of resident deaths after 50 days with a less than 0.1 variation in death rate. We modeled and predicted the effectiveness of infection control measures by utilizing this simulation tool. We found that to reduce the number of resident deaths, the effectiveness of personal protective equipment must be above 50%. We also found that daily random COVID-19 tests for as low as less than 10% of a long-term care facility's population will reduce the number of resident deaths by over 75%. The results further show that combining several infection control measures will lead to more effective outcomes.

Management of hospital beds and ventilators in the Gauteng province, South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

We conducted an observational retrospective study on patients hospitalized with COVID-19, during March 05, 2020, to October 28, 2021, and developed an agent-based model to evaluate effectiveness of recommended healthcare resources (hospital beds and ventilators) management strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Gauteng, South Africa. We measured the effectiveness of these strategies by calculating the number of deaths prevented by implementing them. We observed differ ences between the epidemic waves. The length of hospital stay (LOS) during the third wave was lower than the first two waves. The median of the LOS was 6.73 days, 6.63 days and 6.78 days for the first, second and third wave, respectively. A combination of public and private sector provided hospital care to COVID-19 patients requiring ward and Intensive Care Units (ICU) beds. The private sector provided 88.4% of High care (HC)/ICU beds and 49.4% of ward beds, 73.9% and 51.4%, 71.8% and 58.3% during the first, second and third wave, respectively. Our simulation results showed that with a high maximum capacity, i.e., 10,000 general and isolation ward beds, 4,000 high care and ICU beds and 1,200 ventilators, increasing the resource capacity allocated to COVID- 19 patients by 25% was enough to maintain bed availability throughout the epidemic waves. With a medium resource capacity (8,500 general and isolation ward beds, 3,000 high care and ICU beds and 1,000 ventilators) a combination of resource management strategies and their timing and criteria were very effective in maintaining bed availability and therefore preventing excess deaths. With a low number of maximum available resources (7,000 general and isolation ward beds, 2,000 high care and ICU beds and 800 ventilators) and a severe epidemic wave, these strategies were effective in maintaining the bed availability and minimizing the number of excess deaths throughout the epidemic wave.