Development and Validation of a Clinical Prognostic Risk Score to Predict Early Neonatal Mortality, Ethiopia: A Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Early neonatal death is the death of a live-born baby within the first seven days of life, which is 73% of all postnatal deaths in the globe. This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic clinical risk tool for the prediction of early neonatal death. METHODS: A prospective follow-up study was conducted among 393 neonates at Debre Tabor Referral hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Multivariable logistic regression model was employed to identify potential prognostic determinants for early neonatal mortality. Area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was used to check the model discrimination probability using 'pROC' R-package. Model calibration plot was checked using 'givitiR' R-package. Finally, a risk score prediction tool was developed for ease of applicability. Decision curve analysis was done for cost-benefit analysis and to check the clinical impact of the model. RESULTS: Overall, 15.27% (95% CI: 12.03-19.18) of neonates had the event of death during the follow-up period. Maternal undernutrition, antenatal follow-up less than four times, birth asphyxia, low birth weight, and not exclusive breastfeeding were the prognostic predictors of early neonatal mortality. The AUROC for the reduced model was 88.7% (95% CI: 83.8-93.6%), which had good discriminative probability. The AUROC of the simplified risk score algorithm was 87.8% (95% CI, 82.7-92.9%). The sensitivity and specificity of the risk score tool was 70% and 89%, respectively. The true prediction accuracy of the risk score tool to predict early neonatal mortality was 86%, and the false prediction probability was 13%. CONCLUSION: We developed an early neonatal death prediction tool using easily available maternal and neonatal characteristics for resource-limited settings. This risk prediction using risk score is an easily applicable tool to identify neonates at a higher risk of having early neonatal mortality. This risk score tool would offer an opportunity to reduce early neonatal mortality, thus improving the overall early neonatal death in a resource-limited setting.

Incidence of advanced opportunistic infection and its predictors among HIV infected children at Debre Tabor referral Hospital and University of Gondar Compressive specialized hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia, 2020: A multicenter retrospective follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: This study is aimed to assess the incidence of advanced opportunistic infections (OIs) and its predictors among Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected children at Debre Tabor referral Hospital and University of Gondar Compressive specialized Hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia, 2020. METHODS: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted from June 1, 2010, to May 30, 2020. A total of 349 children under the age of 15 who had received Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) were included in the study. Data were entered into Epi info version 7.2 and then exported to Stata 14.0 for analysis. Kaplan Meier curve and Log-rank test were used to determine the median survival time and the discrepancy of different categorical variables. The Cox regression model was used to identify the predictors of advanced opportunistic infections. The Adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) at 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to declare statistical significance. RESULT: The incidence rate of advanced opportunistic infection was 5.53 per 100 (95% CI: 4.7, 6.9) Person per year observation (PYO). The median survival time was 113 months and the total follow-up periods were yielding 18882 months. Children presenting with treatment failure, Cotrimoxazole Preventive Therapy (CPT) non-user, low hemoglobin level (<10 mg/dl), and poor/fair level of adherence to ART were less free survival time as compared to their counterparts for advanced opportunistic infections. CONCLUSION: In this study, the median of advanced OIs free survival time was found to be low and the incidence rate was found to be high. The incidence advanced OIs was associated with anemia, treatment failure, and poor/fair level of adherence, cotrimoxazole preventive therapy non-users. Further research should conduct to evaluate and to improve the quality of care in the study area.

Mortality rate among HIV-positive children on ART in Northwest Ethiopia: a historical cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Though highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has been available for more than a decade in Ethiopia, information regarding mortality rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive children after antiretroviral therapy antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is very scarce. Thus, this study intends to determine the predictors of mortality among HIV-positive children receiving ART in Amhara Region. METHODS: A multicenter facility-based historical cohort study was conducted in 538 HIV-positive children on ART from January 2012 to February 2017. We employed a standardized data extraction tool, adapted from ART entry and follow-up forms. Descriptive analyses were summarized using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve and log rank test. Then, the Cox-proportional hazard regression model was employed to estimate the hazard of death up to five-years after ART initiation. Variables with p-values ≤0.25 in bivariable analysis were candidates to the multivariable analysis. Finally, variables with p-values < 0.05 were considered as significant variables. RESULTS: The cohort contributed a total follow-up time of 14,600 child-months, with an overall mortality rate of 3.2 (95% CI: 2.3, 4.3) per 100 child-years. This study also indicated that HIV-infected children presenting with opportunistic infections (OIs) (AHR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.04, 5.9), anemia (AHR: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.4, 6.7), severe immunodeficiency (AHR: 4.4, 95% CI: 1.7, 11.7), severe stunting (AHR: 3.3, 95% CI: 1.4, 8.0), severe wasting (AHR: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.3, 7.3), and advanced disease staging (III and IV) (AHR: 3.0, 95% CI: 1.2, 7.1) were at higher risk of mortality. CONCLUSION: A higher rate of mortality was observed in our study as compared to previous Ethiopian studies. HIV-positive children presenting with anemia, OIs, severe immunodeficiency, advanced disease staging (III and IV), severe stunting, and severe wasting were at higher risk of mortality.

Undernutrition among Ethiopian adults living with HIV: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are interlaced in a vicious cycle and worsened in low and middle-income countries. In Ethiopia, even though individuals are dually affected by both malnutrition and HIV, there is no a nationwide study showing the proportion of malnutrition among HIV-positive adults. Consequently, this review addressed the pooled burden of undernutrition among HIV-positive adults in Ethiopia. METHODS: We searched for potentially relevant studies through manual and electronic searches. An electronic search was carried out using the database of PubMed, Google Scholar, and Google for gray literature and reference lists of previous studies. A standardized data extraction checklist was used to extract the data from each original study. STATA Version 13 statistical software was used for our analysis. Descriptive summaries were presented in tables, and the quantitative result was presented in a forest plot. Heterogeneity within the included studies was examined using the Cochrane Q test statistics and I 2 test. Finally, a random-effects meta-analysis model was computed to estimate the pooled proportion of undernutrition among HIV-positive adults. RESULTS: After reviewing 418 studies, 15 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. Findings from 15 studies revealed that the pooled percentage of undernutrition among HIV-positive adults in Ethiopia was 26% (95% CI: 22, 30%). The highest percentage of undernutrition (46.8%) was reported from Jimma University specialized hospital, whereas the lowest proportion of undernutrition (12.3%) was reported from Dilla Hospital. The subgroup analyses of this study also indicated that the percentage of undernourishment among HIV-positive adults is slightly higher in the Northern and Central parts of Ethiopia (27.5%) as compared to the Southern parts of Ethiopia (25%). CONCLUSION: This study noted that undernutrition among HIV-positive adults in Ethiopia was quite common. This study also revealed that undernutrition is more common among HIV-positive adults with advanced disease stage, anemia, diarrhea, CD4 count less than 200 cells/mm3, and living in rural areas. Based on our findings, we suggested that all HIV-positive adults should be assessed for nutritional status at the time of ART commencement.

Factors associated with low birth weight at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia: a hospital based cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence and associated factors of low birth weight among newborns delivered at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. RESULTS: From the total of 368 newborn baby/mother pairs planned to be participated, 338 agreed and involved in the study giving a response rate of 91.2%. In this study, the prevalence of low birth weight was 21.6 (95% CI 17.5, 26%). Being rural residence (AOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.0, 4.1), duration of pregnancy (AOR = 7.6, 95% CI 3.3, 17.4), and having complications during pregnancy (AOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.2, 5.7) were found to be factors significantly associated with low birth weight.

Determinants of low birth weight among neonates born in Amhara Regional State Referral Hospitals of Ethiopia: unmatched case control study.

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to identify the determinants of low birth weight among infants born in Amhara Regional State Referral Hospitals of Ethiopia. RESULTS: This study found that mothers who delivered female infants (AOR: 1.7, 95% CI 1.1, 2.6), occurrence of health problems during current pregnancy (AOR: 2.8, 95% CI 1.7,4.5), absence of antenatal care (AOR: 2.3,95% CI 1.3,4.0), lack of iron supplementation (AOR: 2.8, 95% CI 1.6,4.9), maternal MUAC below 23 cm (AOR: 1.7, 95% CI 1.0,2.7), and gestational age below 37 completed weeks (AOR: 3.3; 95% CI 1.9, 5.7) were found to be determinants of low birth weight.