Comparing Short-Term Univariate and Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting Models in Infectious Disease Outbreak.

Predicting infectious disease outbreak impacts on population, healthcare resources and economics and has received a special academic focus during coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Focus on human disease outbreak prediction techniques in current literature, Marques et al. (Predictive models for decision support in the COVID-19 crisis. Springer, Switzerland, 2021) state that there are four main methods to address forecasting problem: compartmental models, classic statistical models, space-state models and machine learning models. We adopt their framework to compare our research with previous works. Besides being divided by methods, forecasting problems can also be divided by the number of variables that are considered to make predictions. Considering this number of variables, forecasting problems can be classified as univariate, causal and multivariate models. Multivariate approaches have been applied in less than 10% of research found. This research is the first attempt to evaluate, over real time-series data of 3 different countries with univariate and multivariate methods to provide a short-term prediction. In literature we found no research with that scope and aim. A comparison of univariate and multivariate methods has been conducted and we concluded that besides the strong potential of multivariate methods, in our research univariate models presented best results in almost all regions' predictions.

Trends in global greywater reuse: a bibliometric analysis.

The increase in water demand in recent years led to the expansion of research and public policies on the reuse of water, especially greywater (GW). Given the diversity of research in the area, this paper proposes an analysis of the evolution of the area through an objectivity metric. Metadata of 1,524 publications indexed in the Scopus database between 1974 and 2021 were analyzed using the VOSviewer tool, and showed exponential growth in publications from 2013. Six different spelling variations were found for GW in the database. Despite the highly geographical scattering of academic production, developed countries, who began researching greywater earlier, had more connections and published more papers; except for Israel, which had the highest average of citations per article. While developed countries lead the research area, developing countries are emerging in GW reuse research. These aspects reveal both the dispersion of the research structure development and a trend of intellectual production in GW from developed to developing countries. Also, we noted that countries suffering from water scarcity stood out with the highest activity in paper publishing. Thus, we expect that future research on GW reuse will take place in developing countries that face water scarcity.