Effect of reduced two-dose (1+1) schedule of 10 and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (SynflorixTM and Prevenar13TM)) on nasopharyngeal carriage and serotype-specific immune response in the first two years of life: Results from an open-labelled randomized controlled trial in Indian children.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to assess the effect of a reduced dose regime (1 + 1) of PCV10 and PCV13 along with 3-dose regimes on pneumococcal vaccine-type (VT) carriage and immunogenicity in the first two years of life in PCV-naïve Indian children. METHODS: A total of 805 healthy infants aged 6-8 weeks were randomised to 7 groups (n = 115). Six groups received SynflorixTM(PCV10) or Prevenar13TM(PCV13) in the following schedules: 3 + 0 (three primary at 6, 10, and 14 weeks); 2 + 1 (two primary 6 and 14 weeks with booster at 9 months; 1 + 1 (one primary at 14 weeks with booster at 9 months). The 7th group was a PCV-naïve control group. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at 6, 18 weeks, 9, 10, 15, and 18 months of age. Venous blood samples were collected at 18 weeks, 9, 10, and 18 months of age for assessment of sero-specific IgG antibodies. Additionally, functional activity using a serotype specific opsonophagocytic assay (OPA) was assessed at 10 and 18 months of age in a subset (20%) of participants. RESULTS: All schedules of PCV13 showed significant 13VT carriage reduction in the second year of life as compared to control. At 15 months of age, PCV13 (1 + 1) showed 45 % reduction in 13VT-carriage compared to the control [OR = 0.55 (95% CI; 0.31-0.97), p= 0.038]. None of the PCV10 schedules showed significant reduction in 10VT carriage in the second year. Although not powered for these outcomes, at 18 months of age, 1 + 1 and 2 + 1 schedules of both vaccines demonstrated higher sero-responders for all serotypes, higher geometric mean concentrations (GMC) for all serotypes except 23F [with both vaccines], higher percent OPA responders and OPA geometric mean titres (GMT) compared to the 3 + 0 schedules for all serotypes. CONCLUSION: The reduced dose schedule (1 + 1) of PCV13 results in significant VT-carriage reduction in the second year of life. Immune protection provided by 1 + 1 schedules of PCV10 and PCV13 in the second year of life is comparable to WHO-recommended 3-dose schedules.

Contribution of malaria and sickle cell disease to anaemia among children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria: a cross-sectional study using data from the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the fraction of anaemia attributable to malaria and sickle cell disease (SCD) among children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of data from Nigeria's 2018 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). SETTING: Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: 11 536 children aged 6-59 months from randomly selected households were eligible for participation, of whom 11 142 had complete and valid biomarker data required for this analysis. Maternal education data were available from 10 305 of these children. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Haemoglobin concentration. RESULTS: We found that 70.6% (95% CI: 62.7% to 78.5%) of severe anaemia was attributable to malaria compared with 12.4% (95% CI: 11.1% to 13.7%) of mild-to-severe and 29.6% (95% CI: 29.6% to 31.8%) of moderate-to-severe anaemia and that SCD contributed 0.6% (95% CI: 0.4% to 0.9%), 1.3% (95% CI: 1.0% to 1.7%) and 10.6% (95% CI: 6.7% to 14.9%) mild-to-severe, moderate-to-severe and severe anaemia, respectively. Sickle trait was protective against anaemia and was associated with higher haemoglobin concentration compared with children with normal haemoglobin (HbAA) among malaria-positive but not malaria-negative children. CONCLUSIONS: This approach used offers a new tool to estimate the contribution of malaria to anaemia in many settings using widely available DHS data. The fraction of anaemia among young children in Nigeria attributable to malaria and SCD is higher at more severe levels of anaemia. Prevention of malaria and SCD and timely treatment of affected individuals would reduce cases of severe anaemia.

The Consortium on Newborn Screening in Africa for sickle cell disease: study rationale and methodology.

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a common condition within sub-Saharan Africa and associated with high under-5 mortality (U5M). The American Society of Hematology instituted the Consortium on Newborn Screening in Africa (CONSA) for SCD, a 7-country network of sites to implement standardized newborn hemoglobinopathy screening and early intervention for children with SCD in sub-Saharan Africa. CONSA's overall hypothesis is that early infant SCD screening and entry into standardized, continuous care will reduce U5M compared with historical estimates in the region. Primary trial objectives are to determine the population-based birth incidence of SCD and effectiveness of early standardized care for preventing early mortality consortium-wide at each country's site(s). Secondary objectives are to establish universal screening and early interventions for SCD within clinical networks of CONSA partners and assess trial implementation. Outcomes will be evaluated from data collected using a shared patient registry. Standardized trial procedures will be implemented among designated birth populations in 7 African countries whose programs met eligibility criteria. Treatment protocol includes administering antibacterial and antimalarial prophylaxis and standard childhood vaccinations against infections commonly affecting children with SCD. Infants with a positive screen and confirmation of SCD within the catchment areas defined by each consortium partner will be enrolled in the clinical intervention protocol and followed regularly until age of 5 years. Effectiveness of these early interventions, along with culturally appropriate family education and counseling, will be evaluated by comparing U5M in the enrolled cohort to estimated preprogram data. Here, we describe the methodology planned for this trial.

Potential Impacts of Mass Nutritional Supplementation on Measles Dynamics: A Simulation Study.

The bidirectional interaction between undernutrition and infection can be devastating to child health. Nutritional deficiencies impair immunity and increase susceptibility to infection. Simultaneously, infections compound undernutrition by increasing metabolic demand and impairing nutrient absorption. Treatment of acute malnutrition (wasting) can reverse some of its deleterious effects and reduce susceptibility to infectious diseases. Nutrition-specific approaches may be packaged with other interventions, including immunization, to support overall child health. To understand how mass nutritional supplementation, treatment of wasting, and vaccination affect the dynamics of a vaccine-preventable infection, we developed a population-level, compartmental model of measles transmission stratified by age and nutrition status. We simulated a range of scenarios to assess the potential reductions in measles infection and mortality associated with targeted therapeutic feeding for children who are wasted and with a mass supplementation intervention. Nutrition interventions were assumed to increase engagement with the health sector, leading to increased vaccination rates. We found that the combination of wasting treatment and mass supplementation coverage followed by an increase in vaccination coverage of non-wasted children from a baseline of 75% to 85%, leads to 34% to 57% and 65% to 77% reduction in measles infection and mortality and 56% to 60% reduction in overall mortality among wasted children, compared with the wasting treatment alone. Our work highlights the synergistic benefits that may be achieved by leveraging mass nutritional supplementation as a touch point with the health system to increase rates of vaccination and improve child survival beyond what would be expected from the additive benefits of each intervention.

Understanding Research Methods: Up-and-down Designs for Dose-finding.

SUMMARY: For the task of estimating a target benchmark dose such as the ED50 (the dose that would be effective for half the population), an adaptive dose-finding design is more effective than the standard approach of treating equal numbers of patients at a set of equally spaced doses. Up-and-down is the most popular family of dose-finding designs and is in common use in anesthesiology. Despite its widespread use, many aspects of up-and-down are not well known, implementation is often misguided, and standard, up-to-date reference material about the design is very limited. This article provides an overview of up-and-down properties, recent methodologic developments, and practical recommendations, illustrated with the help of simulated examples. Additional reference material is offered in the Supplemental Digital Content.

Family-Assisted Severity of Illness Monitoring for Hospitalized Children in Low-Resource Settings-A Two-Arm Interventional Feasibility Study.

Introduction: Pediatric mortality remains unacceptably high in many low-resource settings, with inpatient deaths often associated with delayed recognition of clinical deterioration. The Family-Assisted Severe Febrile Illness ThERapy (FASTER) tool has been developed for caregivers to assist in monitoring their hospitalized children and alert clinicians. This study evaluates feasibility of implementation by caregivers and clinicians. Methods: Randomized controlled feasibility study at Kenyatta National Hospital, Kenya. Children hospitalized with acute febrile illness with caregivers at the bedside for 24 h were enrolled. Caregivers were trained using the FASTER tool. The primary outcome was the frequency of clinician reassessments between intervention (FASTER) and standard care arms. Poisson regression with random intercept for grouping by patient was used, adjusting for admission pediatric early warning score, age, gender. Secondary outcomes included survey assessments of clinician and caregiver experiences with FASTER. Results: One hundred and fifty patient/caregiver pairs were enrolled, 139 included in the analysis, 74 in the intervention, 65 in the control arm. Patients' median age was 0.9 (range 0.2-10) and 1.1 years (range 0.2-12) in intervention vs. control arms. The most common diagnoses were pneumonia (80[58%]), meningitis (58[38%]) and malaria (34 [24%]). 134 (96%) caregivers were patients' mothers. Clinician visits/hour increased with patients' illness severity in both arms, but without difference in frequency between arms (point estimate for difference -0.9%, p = 0.97). Of the 16 deaths, 8 (four/arm) occurred within 2 days of enrollment. Forty clinicians were surveyed, 33 (82%) reporting that FASTER could improve outcomes of very sick children in low-resource settings; 26 (65%) rating caregivers as able to adequately capture patients' severity of illness. Of 70 caregivers surveyed, 63 (90%) reported that FASTER training was easy to understand; all (100%) agreed that the intervention would improve care of hospitalized children and help identify sick children in their community. Discussion: We observed no difference in recorded frequency of clinician visits with FASTER monitoring. However, the tool was rated positively by caregivers and clinicians., Implementation appears feasible but requires optimization. These feasibility data may inform a larger trial powered to measure morbidity and mortality outcomes to determine the utility of FASTER in detecting and responding to clinical deterioration in low-resource settings. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT03513861.

Effect of adolescent pregnancy on child mortality in 46 countries.

INTRODUCTION: Adolescent pregnancy is a known health risk to mother and child. Statements and reports of health outcomes typically group mothers under 20 years old together. Few studies examined this risk at a finer age resolution, none of them comprehensively, and with differing results. METHODS: We analysed Demographic and Health Surveys data from 2004 to 2018 in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia, on firstborn children of mothers 25 years old or younger. We examined the association between maternal age and stillbirths, and neonatal mortality rate (NNMR), infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), using mixed-effects logistic regression adjusting for major demographic variables and exploring the impact of maternal health-seeking. RESULTS: In both regions and across all endpoints, mortality rates of children born to mothers aged <16 years, 16-17 years and 18-19 years at first birth were about 2-4 times, 1.5-2 times and 1.2-1.5 times higher, respectively, than among firstborn children of mothers aged 23-25. Absolute mortality rates declined over time, but the age gradient remained similar across time periods and regions. Adjusting for rural/urban residence and maternal education, in SSA in 2014-2018 having a <16-year-old mother was associated with ORs of 3.71 (95% CI: 2.50 to 5.51) for stillbirth, 1.92 (1.60-2.30) for NNMR, 2.13 (1.85-2.46) for IMR and 2.39 (2.13-2.68) for U5MR, compared with having a mother aged 23-25. In South Asia, in 2014-2018 ORs were 5.12 (2.85-9.20) for stillbirth, 2.46 (2.03-2.97) for NNMR, 2.62 (2.22-3.08) for IMR and 2.59 (2.22-3.03) for U5MR. Part of the effect on NNMR and IMR may be mediated by a lower maternal health-seeking rate. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent pregnancy is associated with dramatically worse child survival and mitigated by health-seeking behaviour, likely reflecting a combination of biological and social factors. Refining maternal age reporting will avoid masking the increased risk to children born to very young adolescent mothers. Collection of additional biological and social data may better reveal mediators of this relationship. Targeted intervention strategies to reduce unintended pregnancy at earlier ages may also improve child survival.

Child mortality from sickle cell disease in Nigeria: a model-estimated, population-level analysis of data from the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality from sickle cell disease in sub-Saharan Africa is presumed to be high but is not well quantified. This uncertainty contributes to the neglect of sickle cell disease and delays the prioritisation of interventions. In this study, we estimated the mortality of children in Nigeria with sickle cell disease, and the proportion of national under-5 mortality attributable to sickle cell disease. METHODS: We did a model-estimated, population-level analysis of data from Nigeria's 2018 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to estimate the prevalence and geographical distribution of HbSS and HbSC genotypes assuming Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium near birth. Interviews for the survey were done between Aug 14 and Dec 29, 2018, and the embedded sickle cell disease survey was done in a randomly selected third of the overall survey's households. We developed an approach for estimating child mortality from sickle cell disease by combining information on tested children and their untested siblings. Tested children were aged 6-59 months at the time of the survey. Untested siblings born 0-14 years before the survey were also included in analyses. Testing as part of the DHS was done without regard to disease status. We analysed mortality differences using the inheritance-derived genotypic distribution of untested siblings older than the tested cohort, enabling us to estimate excess mortality from sickle cell disease for the older-sibling cohort (ie, those born between 2003 and 2013). FINDINGS: We analysed test results for 11 186 children aged 6-59 months from 7411 households in Nigeria. The estimated average birth prevalence of HbSS was 1·21% (95% CI 1·09-1·37) and was 0·24% (0·19-0·31) for HbSC. We obtained data for estimating child mortality from 10 195 tested children (who could be matched to the individual mother survey) and 17 205 of their untested siblings. 15 227 of the siblings were in the older-sibling cohort. The group of children with sickle cell disease born between 2003 and 2013 with at least one younger sibling in the survey had about 370 excess under-5 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 150-580; p=0·0008) than children with HbAA. The estimated national average under-5 mortality for children with sickle cell disease born between 2003 and 2013 was 490 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 270-700), 4·0 times higher (95% CI 2·1-6·0) than children with HbAA. About 4·2% (95% CI 1·7-6·9) of national under-5 mortality was attributable to excess mortality from sickle cell disease. INTERPRETATION: The burden of child mortality from sickle cell disease in Nigeria continues to be disproportionately higher than the burden of mortality of children without sickle cell disease. Most of these deaths could be prevented if adequate resources were allocated and available focused interventions were implemented. The methods developed in this study could be used to estimate the burden of sickle cell disease elsewhere in Africa and south Asia. FUNDING: Sickle Pan African Research Consortium, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Patterns of child mortality in rural area of Burkina Faso: evidence from the Nanoro health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS).

BACKGROUND: Half of global child deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding child mortality patterns and risk factors will help inform interventions to reduce this heavy toll. The Nanoro Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), Burkina Faso was described previously, but patterns and potential drivers of heterogeneity in child mortality in the district had not been studied. Similar studies in other districts indicated proximity to health facilities as a risk factor, usually without distinction between facility types. METHODS: Using Nanoro HDSS data from 2009 to 2013, we estimated the association between under-5 mortality and proximity to inpatient and outpatient health facilities, seasonality of death, age group, and standard demographic risk factors. RESULTS: Living in homes 40-60 min and > 60 min travel time from an inpatient facility was associated with 1.52 (95% CI: 1.13-2.06) and 1.74 (95% CI: 1.27-2.40) greater hazard of under-5 mortality, respectively, than living in homes < 20 min from an inpatient facility. No such association was found for outpatient facilities. The wet season (July-November) was associated with 1.28 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.53) higher under-5 mortality than the dry season (December-June), likely reflecting the malaria season. CONCLUSIONS: Our results emphasize the importance of geographical proximity to health care, distinguish between inpatient and outpatient facilities, and also show a seasonal effect, probably driven by malaria.

Covasim: An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), an open-source model developed to help address these questions. Covasim includes country-specific demographic information on age structure and population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces, long-term care facilities, and communities; age-specific disease outcomes; and intrahost viral dynamics, including viral-load-based transmissibility. Covasim also supports an extensive set of interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing and protective equipment; pharmaceutical interventions, including vaccination; and testing interventions, such as symptomatic and asymptomatic testing, isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. These interventions can incorporate the effects of delays, loss-to-follow-up, micro-targeting, and other factors. Implemented in pure Python, Covasim has been designed with equal emphasis on performance, ease of use, and flexibility: realistic and highly customized scenarios can be run on a standard laptop in under a minute. In collaboration with local health agencies and policymakers, Covasim has already been applied to examine epidemic dynamics and inform policy decisions in more than a dozen countries in Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America.

Estimating and mitigating the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound associated with reopening of international borders in Vietnam: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's leading success stories in responding to COVID-19. After a prolonged period of little to no transmission, there was an outbreak of unknown source in July, 2020, in the Da Nang region, but the outbreak was quickly suppressed. We aimed to use epidemiological, behavioural, demographic, and policy data from the COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang to calibrate an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission for Vietnam, and to estimate the risk of future outbreaks associated with reopening of international borders in the country. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used comprehensive data from June 15 to Oct 15, 2020, on testing, COVID-19 cases, and quarantine breaches within an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to model a COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang in July, 2020. We applied this model to quantify the risk of future outbreaks in Vietnam in the 3 months after the reopening of international borders, under different behavioural scenarios, policy responses (ie, closure of workplaces and schools), and ongoing testing. FINDINGS: We estimated that the outbreak in Da Nang between July and August, 2020, resulted in substantial community transmission, and that higher levels of symptomatic testing could have mitigated this transmission. We estimated that the outbreak peaked on Aug 2, 2020, with an estimated 1060 active infections (95% projection interval 890-1280). If the population of Vietnam remains highly compliant with mask-wearing policies, our projections indicate that the epidemic would remain under control even if a small but steady flow of imported infections escaped quarantine into the community. However, if complacency increases and testing rates are relatively low (10% of symptomatic individuals are tested), the epidemic could rebound again, resulting in an estimated 2100 infections (95% projected interval 1050-3610) in 3 months. These outcomes could be mitigated if the behaviour of the general population responds dynamically to increases in locally acquired cases that exceed specific thresholds, but only if testing of symptomatic individuals is also increased. INTERPRETATION: The successful response to COVID-19 in Vietnam could be improved even further with higher levels of symptomatic testing. If the previous approaches are used in response to new COVID-19 outbreaks, epidemic control is possible even in the presence of low levels of imported cases. FUNDING: Ministry of Science and Technology (Vietnam). TRANSLATION: For the Vietnamese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Feasibility of Family-Assisted Severity of Illness Monitoring for Hospitalized Children in Low-Income Settings.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the feasibility of having caregivers assist in recognition of clinical deterioration in children hospitalized with febrile illness in a resource-limited setting. DESIGN: Single-center, prospective, interventional pilot study. SETTING: General pediatric wards at Kenyatta National Hospital, Nairobi, Kenya's largest public tertiary-care hospital. PATIENTS: Children hospitalized with acute febrile illness, accompanied by caregivers available at the bedside for 24 hours soon after hospital admission. INTERVENTIONS: Caregivers were trained to recognize signs of critical illness using the Family-Assisted Severe Febrile Illness Therapy tool, which quantifies patients' work of breathing, mental status, and perfusion, producing color-coded flags to signal illness severity. Caregivers' Family-Assisted Severe Febrile Illness Therapy assessments were compared with healthcare professional assessments and to established Pediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS). An initial study stage was followed by refinement of training and a larger second stage with intervention/control arms. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 107 patient/caregiver pairs were enrolled in the interventional arm; 106 caregivers underwent Family-Assisted Severe Febrile Illness Therapy training and were included in the analysis. Patient characteristics included median age 1.1 years (0.2-10 yr), 55 (52%) female, and diagnoses: pneumonia (64 [60%]), meningitis (38 [36%]), gastroenteritis (24 [23%]), and malaria (21 [20%]). Most caregivers had primary (34 [32%]) or secondary (53 [50%]) school education. Fourteen of 106 patients (13%) died during their stay, six within 2 days. Across all severity levels, caregiver Family-Assisted Severe Febrile Illness Therapy assessments matched professionals in 87% and 94% for stages 1 and 2, respectively. Caregiver Family-Assisted Severe Febrile Illness Therapy assessments had a moderate to strong correlation with coinciding Pediatric Early Warning Scores and were sensitive to life-threatening deterioration: for all six patients who died within 2 days of admission, caregiver assessment reached the highest alert level. CONCLUSIONS: Caregiver involvement in recognition of critical illness in hospitalized children in low-resource settings may be feasible. This may facilitate earlier detection of clinical deterioration where staffing is severely limited by constrained resources. Further validation of the Family-Assisted Severe Febrile Illness Therapy tool is warranted, followed by its application in a larger multisite patient population to assess provider response and associated clinical outcomes.

Lessons learned from Vietnam's COVID-19 response: the role of adaptive behavior change and testing in epidemic control

BackgroundVietnam has emerged as one of the worlds leading success stories in responding to COVID-19. After prolonged zero-low transmission, a summer outbreak of unknown source at Da Nang caused the countrys first COVID-19 deaths, but was quickly suppressed. Vietnam recently reopened its borders to international travelers. Understanding the attendant risks and how to minimize them is crucial as Vietnam moves into this new phase. MethodsWe create an agent-based model of COVID-19 in Vietnam, using regional testing data and a detailed linelist of the 1,014 COVID-19 cases, including 35 deaths, identified across Vietnam. We investigate the Da Nang outbreak, and quantify the risk of another outbreak under different assumptions about behavioral/policy responses and ongoing testing. ResultsThe Da Nang outbreak, although rapidly contained once detected, nevertheless caused significant community transmission before it was detected; higher symptomatic testing could have mitigated this. If testing levels do not increase, the adoption of past policies in response to newly-detected cases may reduce the size of potential outbreaks but will not prevent them. Compared to a baseline symptomatic testing rate of 10%, we estimate half as many infections under a 20% testing rate, and a quarter as many with 40-50% testing rates, over the four months following border reopenings. ConclusionsVietnams success in controlling COVID-19 is largely attributable to its rapid response to detected outbreaks, but the speed of response could be improved even further with higher levels of symptomatic testing.

The Sickle Cell Disease Ontology: Enabling Collaborative Research and Co-Designing of New Planetary Health Applications.

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is one of the most common blood disorders impacting planetary health. Over 300,000 newborns are diagnosed with SCD each year globally, with an increasing trend. The sickle cell disease ontology (SCDO) is the most comprehensive multidisciplinary SCD knowledge portal. The SCDO was collaboratively developed by the SCDO working group, which includes experts in SCD and data standards from across the globe. This expert review presents highlights and lessons learned from the fourth SCDO workshop that marked the beginning of applications toward planetary health impact, and with an eye to empower and cultivate multisite SCD collaborative research. The workshop was organized by the Sickle Africa Data Coordinating Center (SADaCC) and attended by 44 participants from 14 countries, with 2 participants connecting remotely. Notably, from the standpoint of democratizing and innovating scientific meeting design, an SCD patient advocate also presented at the workshop, giving a broader real-life perspective on patients' aspirations, needs, and challenges. A major component of the workshop was new approaches to harness SCDO to harmonize data elements used by different studies. This was facilitated by a web-based platform onto which participants uploaded data elements from previous or ongoing SCD-relevant research studies before the workshop, making multisite collaborative research studies based on existing SCD data possible, including multisite cohort, SCD global clinical trials, and SCD community engagement approaches. Trainees presented proposals for systematic literature reviews in key SCD research areas. This expert review emphasizes potential and prospects of SCDO-enabled data standards and harmonization to facilitate large-scale global SCD collaborative initiatives. As the fields of public and global health continue to broaden toward planetary health, the SCDO is well poised to play a prominent role to decipher SCD pathophysiology further, and co-design diagnostics and therapeutics innovation in the field.

Covasim: an agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), an open-source model developed to help address these questions. Covasim includes country-specific demographic information on age structure and population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces, long-term care facilities, and communities; age-specific disease outcomes; and intrahost viral dynamics, including viral-load-based transmissibility. Covasim also supports an extensive set of interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing and protective equipment; pharmaceutical interventions, including vaccination; and testing interventions, such as symptomatic and asymptomatic testing, isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. These interventions can incorporate the effects of delays, loss-to-follow-up, micro-targeting, and other factors. Implemented in pure Python, Covasim has been designed with equal emphasis on performance, ease of use, and flexibility: realistic and highly customized scenarios can be run on a standard laptop in under a minute. In collaboration with local health agencies and policymakers, Covasim has already been applied to examine epidemic dynamics and inform policy decisions in more than a dozen countries in Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America.

Caring for Africa's sickle cell children: will we rise to the challenge?

BACKGROUND: Most of the world's sickle cell disease (SCD) burden is in Africa, where it is a major contributor to child morbidity and mortality. Despite the low cost of many preventive SCD interventions, insufficient resources have been allocated, and progress in alleviating the SCD burden has lagged behind other public-health efforts in Africa. The recent announcement of massive new funding for research into curative SCD therapies is encouraging in the long term, but over the next few decades, it is unlikely to help Africa's SCD children substantially. MAIN DISCUSSION: A major barrier to progress has been the absence of large-scale early-life screening. Most SCD deaths in Africa probably occur before cases are even diagnosed. In the last few years, novel inexpensive SCD point-of-care test kits have become widely available and have been deployed successfully in African field settings. These kits could potentially enable universal early SCD screening. Other recent developments are the expansion of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine towards near-universal coverage, and the demonstrated safety, efficacy, and increasing availability and affordability of hydroxyurea across the continent. Most elements of standard healthcare for SCD children that are already proven to work in the West, could and should now be implemented at scale in Africa. National and continental SCD research and care networks in Africa have also made substantial progress, assembling care guidelines and enabling the deployment and scale-up of SCD public-health systems. Substantial logistical, cultural, and awareness barriers remain, but with sufficient financial and political will, similar barriers have already been overcome in efforts to control other diseases in Africa. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS: Despite remaining challenges, several high-SCD-burden African countries have the political will and infrastructure for the rapid implementation and scale-up of comprehensive SCD childcare programs. A globally funded effort starting with these countries and expanding elsewhere in Africa and to other high-burden countries, including India, could transform the lives of SCD children worldwide and help countries to attain their Sustainable Development Goals. This endeavor would also require ongoing research focused on the unique needs and challenges of SCD patients, and children in particular, in regions of high prevalence.

Modeling layered non-pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV-2 in the United States with Corvid

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWO_ST_ABSBackgroundC_ST_ABSThe novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has rapidly spread across the globe and is poised to cause millions of deaths worldwide. There are currently no proven pharmaceutical treatments, and vaccines are likely over a year away. At present, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the only effective option to reduce transmission of the virus, but it is not clear how to deploy these potentially expensive and disruptive measures. Modeling can be used to understand the potential effectiveness of NPIs for both suppression and mitigation efforts. Methods and FindingsWe developed Corvid, an adaptation of the agent-based influenza model called FluTE to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To demonstrate features of the model relevant for studying the effects of NPIs, we simulated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a synthetic population representing a metropolitan area in the United States. Transmission in the model occurs in several settings, including at home, at work, and in schools. We simulated several combinations of NPIs that targeted transmission in these settings, such as school closures and work-from-home policies. We also simulated three strategies for testing and isolating symptomatic cases. For our demonstration parameters, we show that testing followed by home isolation of ascertained cases reduced transmission by a modest amount. We also show how further reductions may follow by isolating cases in safe facilities away from susceptible family members or by quarantining all family members to prevent transmission from likely infections that have yet to manifest. ConclusionsModels that explicitly include settings where individuals interact such as the home, work, and school are useful for studying the effectiveness of NPIs, as these are more dependent on community structure than pharmaceutical interventions such as vaccination. Corvid can be used to help evaluate complex combinations of interventions, although there is no substitute for real-world observations. Our results on NPI effectiveness summarize the behavior of the model for an assumed set of parameters for demonstration purposes. Model results can be sensitive to the assumptions made about disease transmission and the natural history of the disease, both of which are not yet sufficiently characterized for SARS-CoV-2 for quantitative modeling. Models of SARS-CoV-2 transmission will need to be updated as the pathogen becomes better-understood.

Variation in hospital costs for gastroschisis closure techniques.

BACKGROUND: In newborns with gastroschisis, both primary repair and delayed fascial closure with initial silo placement are considered safe with similar outcomes although cost differences have not been explored. METHODS: A retrospective review was performed of newborns admitted with gastroschisis at a single center from 2011 to 2016. Demographic, clinical, and cost data during the initial hospitalization were collected. Differences between procedure costs and clinical endpoints were analyzed using multivariable linear regression adjusting for prematurity, complicated gastroschisis, and performance of additional operations. RESULTS: 80 patients with gastroschisis met inclusion criteria. Rates of primary fascial, primary umbilical cord closure, and delayed closure were 14%, 65%, and 21%, respectively. Delayed closure was associated with an increase in total hospital costs by 57% compared to primary repair (p < 0.001). In addition, delayed closure was associated with increased total and NICU LOS (p < 0.05), parenteral nutrition duration (p = 0.02), ventilator days (p < 0.001), time to goal enteral feeds (p = 0.01), and all cost sub-categories except ward room costs (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Delayed fascial closure was associated with significantly greater hospital costs during the index admission.

Bias induced by adaptive dose-finding designs.

There is a long literature on bias in maximum likelihood estimators. Here we demonstrate that adaptive dose-finding procedures (such as Continual Reassessment Methods, Up-and-Down and Interval Designs) themselves induce bias. In particular, with Bernoulli responses and dose assignments that depend on prior responses, we provide an explicit formula for the bias of observed response rates. We illustrate the patterns of bias for designs that aim to concentrate dose allocations around a target dose, which represents a specific quantile of a cumulative response-threshold distribution. For such designs, bias tends to be positive above the target dose and negative below it. To our knowledge, this property of dose-finding designs has not previously been recognized by design developers. We discuss the implications of this bias and suggest a simple shrinkage mitigation formula that improves estimation at doses away from the target.

Efficacy of Mass Azithromycin Distribution for Reducing Childhood Mortality Across Geographic Regions.

Mass azithromycin distribution has been shown to reduce all-cause mortality in preschool children in sub-Saharan Africa. However, substantial heterogeneity in the apparent effect has been noted across geographic settings, suggesting a greater relative benefit in higher mortality settings. Here, we evaluated the relationship between the underlying mortality rate and the efficacy of azithromycin for the prevention of child mortality using data from multiple sites in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Tanzania. Between regions, we find no strong evidence of effect modification of the efficacy of azithromycin distribution for the prevention of child mortality by the underlying mortality rate (P = 0.12), although a modest effect is consistent with our findings. Higher mortality settings could be prioritized, however, because of the larger number of deaths which could be averted with azithromycin distribution.